KC at ATL

Pick

Confidence

75.0%

Margin

-6.3

Odds

+300

Model Read

The home-team number says ATL wins about 25 out of 100 times. Because the pick is KC, use the other side of that math: KC wins about 75 out of 100 times. The -6.3 margin is written from ATL's side, so it means KC by about 6.3 points. Odds +300 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick KC: 75.0% win prob | margin -6.3 pts | confidence: 75.0% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-37, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.5, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.45; oppose indoor_diff=+1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor indoor_diff=+1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-37, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.5, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.45

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


E.Johnson RB	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
J.Dotson WR	ATL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
X.Worthy WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Josh Downs WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Beaux Collins WR	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Jake Briningstool TE	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jared Wiley TE	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Nick Muse TE	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jaydn Ott RB	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Allen WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Herbert RB	ATL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
N.Gray TE	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.Hooper TE	ATL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Chris Blair WR	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
T.Kelce TE	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
M.Penix QB	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
A.Hooper TE	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
C.Woerner TE	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
K.Herbert RB	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
O.Zaccheaus WR	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Allen WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jake Briningstool TE	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
K.Pitts TE	ATL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	66 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Andrew Armstrong WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	66 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jaydn Ott RB	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	66 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jaydn Ott RB	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
P.Mahomes QB	KC	QB pass yds	Over 243.5	65 Mild Lean	271.6 vs 243.5 +28.1	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
D.London WR	ATL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jared Wiley TE	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	64 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Beaux Collins WR	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
A.Hooper TE	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
R.Rice WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
Nick Muse TE	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	60 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	60 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Josh Downs WR	KC	Receiving yds	Over 23.5	60 Mild Lean	36.8 vs 23.5 +13.3	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Jalen Royals WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	59 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
N.Gray TE	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	59 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
X.Worthy WR	KC	Receiving yds	Over 26.5	58 Mild Lean	38.8 vs 26.5 +12.3	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Chris Blair WR	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	56 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Kelce TE	KC	Receiving yds	Over 47.5	56 Mild Lean	59.4 vs 47.5 +11.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
K.Pitts TE	ATL	Receiving yds	Under 37.5	55 Mild Lean	30.2 vs 37.5 -7.3	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
N.Gray TE	KC	Receiving yds	Over 10.5	55 Mild Lean	22.2 vs 10.5 +11.7	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Jared Wiley TE	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	54 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Chris Blair WR	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	54 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Beaux Collins WR	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	53 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Woerner TE	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	52 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
E.Johnson RB	KC	Rush yds	Over 9.5	52 Low Signal	24.4 vs 9.5 +14.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Andrew Armstrong WR	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	52 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jalen Royals WR	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.London WR	ATL	Receiving yds	Under 72.5	51 Low Signal	66.7 vs 72.5 -5.8	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Jaydn Ott RB	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jake Briningstool TE	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Walker RB	KC	Rush yds	Under 90.5	50 Low Signal	81.9 vs 90.5 -8.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
C.Woerner TE	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
A.Hooper TE	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Walker RB	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.7 vs 0.5 +0.2	hardrock	Research only
M.Penix QB	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
M.Penix QB	ATL	QB pass yds	Under 215.5	49 Low Signal	191.6 vs 215.5 -23.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Nick Muse TE	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
M.Penix QB	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
N.Gray TE	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	44 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
O.Zaccheaus WR	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
E.Johnson RB	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Herbert RB	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Andrew Armstrong WR	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	42 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jalen Royals WR	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Herbert RB	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
N.Gray TE	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
C.Allen WR	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Dotson WR	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Allen WR	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
K.Herbert RB	ATL	Rush yds	Over 8.5	39 Low Signal	16.0 vs 8.5 +7.5	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Josh Downs WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
O.Zaccheaus WR	ATL	Receiving yds	Over 7.5	38 Low Signal	13.9 vs 7.5 +6.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
K.Herbert RB	ATL	Last Td	Over 0.5	36 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
O.Zaccheaus WR	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	36 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	35 Low Signal	2.0 vs 1.5 +0.5	fanduel	O -128 / U -104
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	34 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Pitts TE	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
O.Zaccheaus WR	ATL	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
M.Penix QB	ATL	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Woerner TE	ATL	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
X.Worthy WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
R.Rice WR	KC	Receiving yds	Over 54.5	31 Low Signal	60.1 vs 54.5 +5.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
E.Johnson RB	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Dotson WR	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Dotson WR	ATL	Receiving yds	Under 28.5	28 Low Signal	32.4 vs 28.5 +3.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
N.Gray TE	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
M.Penix QB	ATL	Qb Passing Tds	Under 1.5	26 Low Signal	1.3 vs 1.5 -0.2	fanduel	O +122 / U -162
Josh Downs WR	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
D.London WR	ATL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Josh Downs WR	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Dotson WR	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
K.Pitts TE	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.Kelce TE	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
D.London WR	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
P.Mahomes QB	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
R.Rice WR	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
A.Hooper TE	ATL	Last Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
K.Pitts TE	ATL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
T.Kelce TE	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
C.Allen WR	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Jalen Royals WR	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
X.Worthy WR	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
Josh Downs WR	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
X.Worthy WR	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
X.Worthy WR	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
J.Dotson WR	ATL	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
K.Pitts TE	ATL	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.Kelce TE	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Walker RB	KC	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.London WR	ATL	Last Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
E.Johnson RB	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
D.London WR	ATL	First Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Walker RB	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.Kelce TE	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
R.Rice WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
K.Walker RB	KC	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
R.Rice WR	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Walker RB	KC	First Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Andrew Armstrong WR	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
R.Rice WR	KC	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
E.Johnson RB	KC	Last Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


P.Mahomes #15	KC	1	134	283.4	2.1	24.4	0.6	20.5
C.Rush #13	ATL	1	2	229.0	1.0	22.0	0.0	20.0
M.Penix #9	ATL	2	21	210.7	1.1	17.4	0.1	6.9
J.Fields #6	KC	2	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-1.0
J.Strand #18	ATL	3	1	59.0	0.0	8.0	0.0	16.0
T.Tagovailoa #1	ATL	4	1	34.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0

Offense Projections

Market


B.Robinson #7	ATL	1	60	88.1	35.1	4.0	5.3	123.2	0.8
K.Walker #9	KC	1	8	109.0	21.5	3.3	4.5	130.5	1.4
T.Kelce #87	KC	2	199	0.1	67.8	5.6	7.8	67.8	0.4
D.London #5	ATL	2	71	0.1	70.7	5.3	8.3	70.8	0.3
R.Rice #4	KC	3	32	0.6	65.3	5.7	7.5	65.8	0.5
J.Dotson #4	ATL	3	9	0.0	49.8	2.4	5.0	49.8	0.3
K.Pitts #8	ATL	4	87	0.0	43.7	3.5	5.6	43.6	0.2
E.Johnson #10	KC	4	8	13.9	29.6	1.8	2.0	43.5	0.3
X.Worthy #1	KC	5	38	5.0	38.1	3.5	5.7	43.1	0.3
Br.Robinson #15	ATL	5	6	35.2	5.0	0.8	1.0	40.2	0.7
A.Hooper #81	ATL	6	62	0.0	38.1	3.7	4.8	38.1	0.3
T.Thornton #2	KC	6	16	0.0	41.1	1.9	3.3	41.1	0.3
J.Watson #84	KC	7	48	0.0	22.3	1.4	2.5	22.3	0.1
K.Herbert #25	ATL	7	3	16.3	15.3	2.0	2.3	31.7	0.0
N.Gray #83	KC	8	78	0.0	18.4	1.8	2.4	18.4	0.1
O.Zaccheaus #14	ATL	8	52	0.2	26.4	2.0	3.4	26.5	0.1
B.Smith #24	KC	9	19	7.9	9.3	1.4	1.9	17.2	0.1
Z.Branch #17	ATL	9	8	1.0	11.9	1.9	2.3	12.9	0.0
C.Woerner #89	ATL	10	21	0.1	5.6	0.9	1.5	5.7	0.1
C.Allen #13	KC	10	6	0.0	10.8	0.8	1.7	10.8	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


Z.Smith #55	ATL	1	5	3.8	4.4	5.0	50.4
P.Woods #99	KC	1	1	1.5	3.0	0.0	0.0
S.Ebukam #52	ATL	2	4	2.8	9.5	2.3	41.0
R.Thomas #51	KC	2	3	1.0	3.7	1.0	10.0
C.Jones #95	KC	3	129	0.7	1.8	0.8	9.1
H.Perkins #56	ATL	3	4	1.6	2.3	2.3	12.6
G.Karlaftis #56	KC	4	58	0.7	2.4	1.0	7.7
J.Ivey #51	ATL	4	3	1.3	2.7	2.7	25.3
N.Williams #20	KC	5	7	0.6	0.6	2.6	7.9
X.Watts #31	ATL	5	2	1.3	2.5	2.0	10.8
A.Gillotte #97	KC	6	12	0.5	1.3	1.2	7.6
G.Dexter #95	ATL	6	5	1.2	4.0	3.4	23.2
C.Conner #27	KC	7	15	0.4	0.8	0.9	7.3
C.Thomas #99	ATL	7	7	1.1	6.6	0.6	3.4
D.Tranquill #23	KC	8	27	0.3	0.8	1.4	5.5
L.London #94	ATL	8	10	1.0	0.9	1.4	15.5
F.Anudike-Uzomah #91	KC	9	22	0.3	1.3	0.7	1.9
J.Pearce #27	ATL	9	12	0.9	1.3	0.8	14.8
N.Bolton #32	KC	10	49	0.1	0.6	1.1	4.2
Z.Harrison #96	ATL	10	14	0.8	1.4	1.1	5.7

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