LA at ARI

Pick

Confidence

85.0%

Margin

-5.5

Odds

+567

Model Read

The home-team number says ARI wins about 15 out of 100 times. Because the pick is LA, use the other side of that math: LA wins about 85 out of 100 times. The -5.5 margin is written from ARI's side, so it means LA by about 5.5 points. Odds +567 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick LA: 85.0% win prob | margin -5.5 pts | confidence: 85.0% away | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.02; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+9.2e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.02 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+9.2e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.02; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.02

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


M.Stafford QB	LA	QB pass yds	Over 209.5	71 Solid Lean	243.4 vs 209.5 +33.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Konata Mumpfield WR	LA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Atwell WR	LA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Evan Hull RB	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
R.Rivers RB	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Quitoriano TE	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Devin Duvernay WR	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Xavier Smith WR	LA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
T.Quitoriano TE	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
M.Stafford QB	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Higbee TE	LA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Devin Duvernay WR	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Xavier Smith WR	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
R.Rivers RB	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Corum RB	LA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Z.Knight RB	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
C.Parkinson TE	LA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Davis Allen TE	LA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Parkinson TE	LA	Receiving yds	Under 31.5	64 Review First	18.9 vs 31.5 -12.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
R.Rivers RB	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
M.Stafford QB	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
M.Stafford QB	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Atwell WR	LA	Receiving yds	Under 29.5	58 Mild Lean	20.9 vs 29.5 -8.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Evan Hull RB	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	57 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Konata Mumpfield WR	LA	Receiving yds	Under 25.5	56 Mild Lean	16.2 vs 25.5 -9.3	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Evan Hull RB	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	54 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Higbee TE	LA	Receiving yds	Under 35.5	54 Low Signal	28.5 vs 35.5 -7.0	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Devin Duvernay WR	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Devin Duvernay WR	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Z.Knight RB	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	50 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Xavier Smith WR	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Davis Allen TE	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	49 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
T.Quitoriano TE	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Xavier Smith WR	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	45 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	44 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
K.Williams RB	LA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	42 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Devin Duvernay WR	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Atwell WR	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	Receiving yds	Under 13.5	38 Low Signal	11.6 vs 13.5 -1.9	draftkings	O -109 / U -115
Xavier Smith WR	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	38 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
M.Stafford QB	LA	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	37 Low Signal	2.0 vs 1.5 +0.5	draftkings	O +101 / U -129
M.Stafford QB	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	37 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Z.Knight RB	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	37 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Receiving yds	Under 26.5	36 Low Signal	23.0 vs 26.5 -3.5	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
T.Quitoriano TE	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	34 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	34 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
B.Corum RB	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Davis Allen TE	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	33 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Corum RB	LA	Rush yds	Under 55.5	32 Low Signal	53.9 vs 55.5 -1.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Parkinson TE	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	32 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Davis Allen TE	LA	Receiving yds	Under 13.5	31 Review First	14.2 vs 13.5 +0.7	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
T.Higbee TE	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Parkinson TE	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	30 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
K.Williams RB	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.7 vs 0.5 +0.2	hardrock	Research only
T.Atwell WR	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Receiving yds	Under 16.5	29 Low Signal	20.1 vs 16.5 +3.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Rush yds	Under 42.5	28 Low Signal	44.9 vs 42.5 +2.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
T.Higbee TE	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Davis Allen TE	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	28 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Davis Allen TE	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	28 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	Receiving yds	Under 59.5	27 Low Signal	63.6 vs 59.5 +4.1	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
B.Corum RB	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.Atwell WR	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.Higbee TE	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
K.Williams RB	LA	Rush yds	Under 66.5	25 Low Signal	66.5 vs 66.5 -0.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Konata Mumpfield WR	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	hardrock	Research only
C.Parkinson TE	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	25 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Z.Knight RB	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	25 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Konata Mumpfield WR	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Konata Mumpfield WR	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
T.Atwell WR	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
C.Parkinson TE	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	21 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.Higbee TE	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
B.Corum RB	LA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
K.Williams RB	LA	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
B.Corum RB	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Konata Mumpfield WR	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Williams RB	LA	First Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Williams RB	LA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


M.Stafford #9	LA	1	83	262.4	1.9	22.8	0.5	2.1
J.Brissett #11	ARI	1	22	238.7	1.6	24.1	0.0	12.4
G.Minshew #15	ARI	2	2	177.0	1.5	19.0	0.0	2.0
S.Bennett #13	LA	2	1	13.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	9.0

Offense Projections

Market


T.McBride #85	ARI	1	68	0.0	59.9	6.2	8.2	59.9	0.3
P.Nacua #12	LA	1	51	5.5	96.2	7.5	10.3	101.7	0.5
K.Williams #23	LA	2	62	71.4	16.2	2.4	3.2	87.6	0.8
T.Allgeier #22	ARI	2	9	41.0	14.2	2.6	2.8	55.2	0.3
D.Adams #17	LA	3	20	0.0	63.5	4.5	8.2	63.5	0.9
J.Love #4	ARI	3	6	44.7	6.0	1.8	2.3	50.7	0.3
Mi.Wilson #14	ARI	4	55	0.6	48.5	3.9	6.2	49.1	0.3
B.Corum #24	LA	4	40	35.0	4.8	0.6	1.0	39.8	0.3
T.Atwell #8	LA	5	54	1.3	31.8	2.2	3.7	33.1	0.1
Z.Knight #20	ARI	5	17	25.7	11.9	1.6	2.4	37.6	0.3
T.Higbee #89	LA	6	135	0.0	31.4	3.1	4.5	31.4	0.2
K.Bourne #17	ARI	6	7	0.0	37.6	3.7	5.4	37.6	0.0
C.Parkinson #84	LA	7	36	0.0	22.7	2.5	3.6	22.7	0.3
R.Virgil #82	ARI	7	3	0.0	18.0	1.0	3.7	18.0	0.0
E.Higgins #84	ARI	8	48	0.0	16.6	1.7	2.1	16.6	0.1
T.Ferguson #18	LA	8	14	0.0	21.0	1.3	2.6	21.0	0.3
J.Whittington #88	LA	9	27	0.9	17.6	1.6	2.1	18.5	0.0
J.Brooks #86	ARI	9	10	0.0	13.2	0.8	2.3	13.2	0.0
R.Rivers #20	LA	10	22	14.3	4.1	0.7	0.8	18.4	0.0
T.Quitoriano #47	ARI	10	2	0.0	11.5	1.5	1.5	11.5	1.0

Defense Projections

Market


A.Billings #95	ARI	1	2	2.0	2.0	2.5	17.0
W.Bailey #47	LA	1	2	3.5	3.5	2.0	68.0
J.Burch #52	ARI	2	3	1.7	1.7	3.0	20.0
M.Garrett #95	LA	2	1	3.0	3.0	3.0	42.0
J.Sweat #10	ARI	3	16	1.6	2.4	2.0	21.2
J.Stewart #10	LA	3	8	1.5	2.4	2.4	23.9
B.Young #0	LA	4	46	0.9	2.1	1.1	9.3
L.Collier #91	ARI	4	8	0.9	2.1	1.0	10.6
D.Robinson #56	ARI	5	11	0.9	2.5	1.9	16.3
O.Speights #48	LA	5	7	0.9	0.9	2.6	11.1
D.Stills #55	ARI	6	17	0.7	1.5	1.5	12.8
L.Murchison #52	LA	6	5	0.8	1.0	1.0	13.4
A.Donald #99	LA	7	142	0.8	1.9	1.3	12.1
J.Gibbens #50	ARI	7	3	0.7	4.0	1.3	9.3
B.Fiske #55	LA	8	22	0.7	1.9	1.1	12.7
W.Nolen #97	ARI	8	9	0.7	2.0	1.4	6.6
B.Browning #5	ARI	9	14	0.6	1.1	1.1	5.6
D.Johnson #94	LA	9	7	0.7	1.7	0.7	9.1
Z.Collins #25	ARI	10	40	0.5	0.9	1.1	9.3
K.Turner #91	LA	10	34	0.7	1.4	0.8	11.6

Previous: MIN at GB Next: SEA at LV