NE at DET

Pick

DET

Confidence

62.1%

Margin

+3.1

Odds

-164

Model Read

The model says DET wins about 62 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +3.1 margin is written from DET's side, so it means DET by about 3.1 points. Odds -164 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick DET: 62.1% win prob | margin +3.1 pts | confidence: 62.1% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+3.1e+02, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.15; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+3.1e+02, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.15

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


Lan Larison RB	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
K.Williams WR	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Efton Chism III WR	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
E.Raridon TE	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Tay Martin WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
T.Conklin TE	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Maye QB	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
M.Hollins WR	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Douglas WR	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
DeAndre Carter WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
T.Conklin TE	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	66 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
C.Kiner RB	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
DeAndre Carter WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Cameron Latu TE	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
S.Vaki RB	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
H.Henry TE	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
A.Brown WR	NE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Cameron Latu TE	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
S.Vaki RB	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Tay Martin WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	60 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	58 Mild Lean	0.8 vs 0.5 +0.3	hardrock	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	57 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Conklin TE	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	56 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	55 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	55 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	Rush yds	Under 95.5	54 Low Signal	84.3 vs 95.5 -11.2	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Cameron Latu TE	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	54 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	51 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Tay Martin WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
DeAndre Carter WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	47 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Receiving yds	Under 56.5	47 Low Signal	52.5 vs 56.5 -4.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
S.Vaki RB	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	41 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
M.Hollins WR	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
K.Williams WR	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
DeAndre Carter WR	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Maye QB	NE	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	38 Low Signal	2.1 vs 1.5 +0.6	fanduel	O -146 / U +110
S.Vaki RB	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	38 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	38 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Maye QB	NE	QB pass yds	Over 262.5	37 Low Signal	266.1 vs 262.5 +3.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Receiving yds	Over 17.5	37 Low Signal	23.9 vs 17.5 +6.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
S.Vaki RB	DET	Rush yds	Over 12.5	37 Review First	19.5 vs 12.5 +7.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
M.Hollins WR	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	36 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
S.Vaki RB	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	35 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Lan Larison RB	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	34 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Williams WR	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
D.Maye QB	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
K.Williams WR	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
H.Henry TE	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	33 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Efton Chism III WR	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Receiving yds	Under 42.5	31 Low Signal	45.1 vs 42.5 +2.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Receiving yds	Under 78.5	31 Review First	78.7 vs 78.5 +0.2	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
H.Henry TE	NE	Receiving yds	Under 35.5	31 Review First	36.7 vs 35.5 +1.2	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
E.Raridon TE	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	30 Review First	1.8 vs 1.5 +0.3	draftkings	O -170 / U +133
C.Kiner RB	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Lan Larison RB	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Efton Chism III WR	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
M.Hollins WR	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Lan Larison RB	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
H.Henry TE	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	27 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	QB pass yds	Over 268.5	27 Review First	263.2 vs 268.5 -5.3	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
C.Kiner RB	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Douglas WR	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
H.Henry TE	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Maye QB	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Kiner RB	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
M.Hollins WR	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Lan Larison RB	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Douglas WR	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
K.Williams WR	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
D.Douglas WR	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
D.Maye QB	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
A.Brown WR	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	22 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
H.Henry TE	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	21 Review First	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
A.Brown WR	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	21 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Douglas WR	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
E.Raridon TE	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
A.Brown WR	NE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	20 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	20 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Maye QB	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Efton Chism III WR	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
Efton Chism III WR	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
E.Raridon TE	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Review First	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
C.Kiner RB	NE	Last Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	17 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
A.Brown WR	NE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Review First	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	draftkings	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	16 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.5 vs 0.5 -0.0	hardrock	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
E.Raridon TE	NE	First Td	Over 0.5	13 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


J.Goff #16	DET	1	90	262.1	1.8	23.2	0.4	3.4
D.Maye #10	NE	1	39	251.4	1.7	21.3	0.3	31.4
T.DeVito #16	NE	2	2	40.5	0.0	3.5	0.0	2.0

Offense Projections

Market


J.Gibbs #0	DET	1	57	77.7	30.1	3.8	4.8	107.7	1.0
R.Doubs #87	NE	1	6	0.0	77.3	4.3	7.3	77.3	0.8
A.St. Brown #14	DET	2	90	2.3	76.8	6.8	9.2	79.0	0.6
R.Stevenson #38	NE	2	79	53.6	20.8	2.8	3.6	74.4	0.5
J.Williams #1	DET	3	58	2.6	51.4	3.0	5.0	54.0	0.4
T.Henderson #32	NE	3	23	54.6	11.8	1.8	2.3	66.4	0.5
S.LaPorta #87	DET	4	50	0.1	50.1	4.4	6.0	50.2	0.5
M.Hollins #13	NE	4	19	0.2	41.8	3.4	4.8	42.1	0.2
D.Douglas #3	NE	5	55	1.4	39.0	3.4	5.0	40.4	0.2
I.TeSlaa #18	DET	5	21	0.0	21.2	1.3	2.4	21.2	0.3
H.Henry #85	NE	6	87	0.0	39.9	3.5	5.0	39.9	0.3
J.Meeks #13	DET	6	1	0.0	16.0	2.0	2.0	16.0	0.0
B.Wright #89	DET	7	51	0.0	13.0	1.5	1.9	13.0	0.2
A.Brown #1	NE	7	3	0.0	33.7	3.0	6.7	33.7	0.0
S.Vaki #33	DET	8	20	7.7	5.0	0.5	0.6	12.7	0.0
E.Raridon #82	NE	8	8	0.0	33.6	2.4	3.8	33.6	0.4
T.Kennedy #85	DET	9	23	0.0	10.0	0.8	1.3	10.0	0.0
C.Kiner #9	NE	9	9	30.3	2.8	0.3	0.3	33.1	0.1
K.Williams #18	NE	10	23	0.1	19.3	0.8	1.9	19.4	0.2
T.Conklin #83	DET	10	3	0.0	3.7	0.7	1.0	3.7	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


E.Ponder #91	NE	1	12	2.4	4.0	2.6	31.8
D.Wonnum #98	DET	1	3	6.3	9.0	5.3	84.7
L.Taylor #93	NE	2	4	2.0	2.3	2.8	24.5
R.McCreary #21	DET	2	1	3.0	3.0	3.0	36.0
D.Jones #5	NE	3	3	1.5	5.0	3.0	32.7
J.Rolder #41	DET	3	2	2.0	2.0	5.5	52.0
G.Jacas #50	NE	4	6	1.5	4.2	2.2	15.7
C.Clark #36	DET	4	2	1.5	3.5	1.5	51.0
C.Izien #5	DET	5	2	1.5	0.0	6.0	13.5
J.Reed #23	NE	5	1	1.5	3.0	0.0	9.0
S.Gill-Howard #50	DET	6	6	1.3	3.2	0.7	16.3
J.Farmer #92	NE	6	3	1.0	1.3	1.3	22.7
A.Hutchinson #97	DET	7	53	1.1	3.0	1.2	15.9
D.Pettus #24	NE	7	2	1.0	1.0	1.0	19.0
C.Barmore #90	NE	8	42	0.6	1.6	0.8	10.1
A.McNeill #54	DET	8	35	0.8	1.8	1.2	13.1
C.Durden #94	NE	9	9	0.5	1.9	1.3	3.0
D.Moore #8	DET	9	3	0.7	4.3	0.7	9.3
D.Barnes #55	DET	10	29	0.7	0.9	1.1	5.5
M.Williams #97	NE	10	13	0.5	1.1	1.1	8.2

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