Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Tue, Oct 27, 12:15 AM UTC

DAL at PHI

Pick
DAL
Confidence
77.5%
Margin
-2.9
Odds
+344

Model Read

The home-team number says PHI wins about 23 out of 100 times. Because the pick is DAL, use the other side of that math: DAL wins about 77 out of 100 times. The -2.9 margin is written from PHI's side, so it means DAL by about 2.9 points. Odds +344 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick DAL: 77.5% win prob | margin -2.9 pts | confidence: 77.5% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-3.9e+02; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.5, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.3 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.5, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.3; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-3.9e+02

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.McKee
QB
PHIQB pass yds180.6211.5-30.9fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
S.Barkley
RB
PHIRush yds53.874.5-20.7draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighInjury Review
C.Lamb
WR
DALReceiving yds88.080.5+7.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALRush yds59.565.5-6.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALQB pass yds262.7268.5-5.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALReceiving yds24.819.5+5.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALReceiving yds69.464.5+4.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
D.Goedert
TE
PHIReceiving yds41.638.5+3.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
R.Flournoy
WR
DALReceiving yds36.533.5+3.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Smith
WR
PHIReceiving yds66.467.5-1.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
T.McKee
QB
PHIQb Passing Tds0.81.5-0.7fanduelO +138 / U -186MediumOK
T.McKee
QB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -MediumOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +18000 / U -MediumOK
C.Lamb
WR
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
D.Smith
WR
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Pickens
WR
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Williams
RB
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1600 / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Ferguson
TE
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Flournoy
WR
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
S.Barkley
RB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighInjury Review
T.McKee
QB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -MediumOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -MediumOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Flournoy
WR
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1700 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Goodson
RB
DALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -HighOK
T.McKee
QB
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -MediumOK
D.Smith
WR
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1500 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Ferguson
TE
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +340 / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Goodson
RB
DALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -HighOK
T.McKee
QB
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -MediumOK
D.Smith
WR
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Ferguson
TE
DALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Lemon
WR
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -MediumOK
J.Williams
RB
DALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +400 / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
D.Smith
WR
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Prescott
QB
DALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +850 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Goedert
TE
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Ferguson
TE
DALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Wicks
WR
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Lamb
WR
DALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +850 / U -HighInjury Review
S.Barkley
RB
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1600 / U -HighInjury Review
S.Barkley
RB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +750 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Lamb
WR
DALTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -HighOK
C.Lamb
WR
DALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +400 / U -HighOK
S.Barkley
RB
PHIFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +600 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +800 / U -HighFallback Line
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Lemon
WR
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -MediumFallback Line
T.Goodson
RB
DALRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighFallback Line
H.Luepke
RB
DALRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighFallback Line
T.McKee
QB
PHIAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -MediumOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +800 / U -HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -MediumOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +380 / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +380 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Wicks
WR
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Wicks
WR
PHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Pierce
RB
PHIRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Pickens
WR
DALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +175 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Pickens
WR
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +175 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Pierce
RB
PHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +310 / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +310 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Cooper
WR
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +600 / U -MediumFallback Line
D.Goedert
TE
PHIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +195 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Goedert
TE
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +195 / U -HighInjury Review
S.Barkley
RB
PHIRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +110 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Cooper
WR
PHIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +600 / U -MediumOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1fanduelO -138 / U +104HighOK
D.Smith
WR
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +185 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Smith
WR
PHIAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +185 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Lamb
WR
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +125 / U -HighFallback Line
S.Barkley
RB
PHIAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +110 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Lamb
WR
DALAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +125 / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO -175 / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALRb Rushing Tds0.50.5+0.0draftkingsO -175 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

J.Hurts
QB
PHIAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHIFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHILast Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHIQb Passing Tds1.7---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHIQB pass yds222.8---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Ojomo
DL
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.Dalton
QB
PHIAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
A.Dalton
QB
PHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
A.Dalton
QB
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
A.Dalton
QB
PHIQb Passing Tds0.8---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
A.Dalton
QB
PHIQB pass yds92.3---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
A.Dalton
QB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
A.Dalton
QB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
J.Davis
DL
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIReceiving yds26.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHIReceiving yds36.9---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Clark
DL
DALSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHIRush yds32.6---O - / U -HighOK
K.Turpin
WR
DALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALReceiving yds13.7---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Q.Williams
DL
DALSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
D.Ezeiruaku
LB
DALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Bigsby
RB
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIRb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIRush yds38.8---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Bigsby
RB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Goodson
RB
DALRush yds12.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Baun
LB
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Hunt
LB
PHISacks0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALReceiving yds13.9---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALRush yds6.4---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Bell
DB
DALSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALReceiving yds16.7---O - / U -HighOK
W.Shipley
RB
PHIAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHIRb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHIRush yds13.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
B.Young
DL
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Overshown
LB
DALSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Houston
LB
DALSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
S.James
LB
DALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Ringo
DB
PHISacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Carter
DL
PHISacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Steward
DB
DALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
N.Smith
LB
PHISacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Bland
DB
DALSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIReceiving yds22.6---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHIReceiving yds21.3---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Trotter
LB
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Mukuba
DB
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hooker
DB
DALSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

D.Prescott
#4
DAL1145259.51.723.10.615.1
J.Hurts
#1
PHI197194.11.216.80.437.7
T.McKee
#16
PHI27116.00.911.40.01.0
A.Dalton
#13
PHI310.00.00.00.00.0

Offense Projections

C.Lamb
#88
DAL11003.879.96.29.183.80.5
S.Barkley
#26
PHI13692.415.52.12.8107.90.7
D.Smith
#6
PHI2840.063.44.97.163.50.4
G.Pickens
#3
DAL2230.080.75.58.280.70.4
Z.Ertz
#86
PHI31250.050.54.77.050.50.3
J.Williams
#33
DAL32269.010.92.53.379.90.9
J.Ferguson
#87
DAL4650.033.03.85.233.00.3
D.Wicks
#13
PHI460.047.33.25.347.30.2
D.Goedert
#88
PHI51100.044.13.95.344.20.3
R.Flournoy
#19
DAL5280.929.02.63.829.90.2
K.Turpin
#9
DAL6536.018.71.42.224.70.2
D.Pierce
#39
PHI6224.56.53.05.031.00.5
T.Bigsby
#8
PHI71824.22.30.30.426.50.2
T.Goodson
#32
DAL7322.7-0.31.02.322.30.0
L.Schoonmaker
#86
DAL8380.012.31.42.012.30.1
M.Lemon
#9
PHI86-0.821.23.04.720.30.0
H.Luepke
#30
DAL9383.76.60.81.010.30.1
D.Cooper
#80
PHI9120.019.21.42.219.20.3
B.Spann-Ford
#89
DAL10280.08.80.91.48.80.0
W.Shipley
#28
PHI10247.85.10.81.012.90.0

Defense Projections

D.Overshown
#0
DAL160.80.81.512.7
B.Young
#94
PHI140.61.00.84.8
M.Ojomo
#97
PHI2120.51.40.56.3
J.Houston
#41
DAL2100.61.30.69.3
J.Davis
#90
PHI3160.50.80.95.8
S.James
#50
DAL340.41.30.52.5
K.Clark
#97
DAL490.31.00.75.6
K.Ringo
#7
PHI420.50.50.51.0
J.Carter
#98
PHI5280.51.30.97.3
R.Steward
#27
DAL550.30.41.05.2
N.Smith
#3
PHI6220.51.10.55.0
Q.Williams
#92
DAL660.31.50.53.8
Z.Baun
#53
PHI7160.40.61.15.0
D.Ezeiruaku
#6
DAL7120.21.00.84.2
J.Hunt
#58
PHI8200.41.40.55.8
D.Bland
#26
DAL870.00.41.02.1
M.Bell
#14
DAL950.00.20.82.6
J.Trotter
#54
PHI920.31.50.52.3
M.Hooker
#24
DAL10100.00.10.91.8
A.Mukuba
#24
PHI1020.30.51.03.8