Matty The Bookie
Back to week 9

Published Pick

Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM UTC

CLE at NO

Pick
NO
Confidence
66.1%
Margin
+0.6
Odds
-195

Model Read

The model says NO wins about 66 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +0.6 margin is written from NO's side, so it means NO by about 0.6 points. Odds -195 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick NO: 66.1% win prob | margin +0.6 pts | confidence: 66.1% home | Offense diffs: favor indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-5.8e+02 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-5.8e+02; oppose indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

S.Sanders
QB
CLEQB pass ydsUnder 178.5
74
Solid Lean
55.5 vs 178.5
-123.0
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Shough
QB
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
I.Bond
WR
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Oscar Delp
TE
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
S.Sanders
QB
CLEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Blake Whiteheart
TE
CLEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Barion Brown
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
D.Boston
WR
CLEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
D.Sampson
RB
CLEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Carsen Ryan
TE
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Malachi Corley
WR
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Michael Burton
RB
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Oscar Delp
TE
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Tylan Wallace
WR
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Zamir White
RB
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Audric Estime
RB
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
Michael Burton
RB
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Tylan Wallace
WR
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jeudy
WR
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
B.Lance
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
S.Sanders
QB
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
D.Sampson
RB
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Blake Whiteheart
TE
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Barion Brown
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEReceiving ydsOver 14.5
64
Mild Lean
28.7 vs 14.5
+14.2
fanduelO -113 / U -113
H.Fannin
TE
CLEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Michael Burton
RB
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Malachi Corley
WR
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Carsen Ryan
TE
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOReceiving ydsOver 4.5
62
Mild Lean
18.2 vs 4.5
+13.7
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Malachi Corley
WR
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
I.Bond
WR
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
I.Bond
WR
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Q.Judkins
RB
CLERush ydsUnder 68.5
59
Mild Lean
52.7 vs 68.5
-15.8
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Tylan Wallace
WR
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOQB pass ydsUnder 226.5
58
Mild Lean
190.7 vs 226.5
-35.8
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Zamir White
RB
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
Oscar Delp
TE
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
55
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOReceiving ydsUnder 71.5
54
Low Signal
64.4 vs 71.5
-7.1
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Carsen Ryan
TE
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Barion Brown
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NORush ydsUnder 35.5
51
Low Signal
24.1 vs 35.5
-11.4
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
Zamir White
RB
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Oscar Delp
TE
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEReceiving ydsUnder 46.5
44
Low Signal
41.3 vs 46.5
-5.2
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Barion Brown
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Carson Schwesinger
LB
CLESacksOver 1.0
43
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
Blake Whiteheart
TE
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Audric Estime
RB
NORush ydsUnder 34.5
41
Low Signal
29.6 vs 34.5
-4.9
fanduelO -113 / U -113
K.Concepcion
WR
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
41
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Granderson
LB
NOSacksOver 0.3
41
Low Signal
0.6 vs 0.3
+0.4
draftkingsO -133 / U +105
Zamir White
RB
NOLast TdOver 0.5
39
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
H.Fannin
TE
CLEReceiving ydsOver 43.5
39
Review First
50.4 vs 43.5
+6.9
fanduelO -113 / U -113
S.Williams
DL
CLESacksOver 1.0
37
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
B.Lance
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Blake Whiteheart
TE
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
S.Sanders
QB
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Young
LB
NOSacksUnder 0.8
34
Low Signal
0.7 vs 0.8
-0.0
draftkingsO -184 / U +145
Vernon Broughton
DL
NOSacksOver 1.0
34
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jeudy
WR
CLELast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Lance
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
S.Sanders
QB
CLELast TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Sampson
RB
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
S.Sanders
QB
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Audric Estime
RB
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
B.Lance
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Oscar Delp
TE
NOLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Boston
WR
CLEReceiving ydsUnder 43.5
30
Low Signal
42.2 vs 43.5
-1.3
fanduelO -113 / U -113
D.Sampson
RB
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOReceiving ydsUnder 24.5
29
Low Signal
27.0 vs 24.5
+2.5
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Shough
QB
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Boston
WR
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Pete Werner
LB
NOSacksOver 1.0
28
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
draftkingsResearch only
Jared Verse
DL
CLESacksOver 1.0
28
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
K.Boyd
DL
NOSacksOver 1.0
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOReceiving ydsUnder 35.5
27
Low Signal
39.4 vs 35.5
+3.9
fanduelO -113 / U -113
C.Olave
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Concepcion
WR
CLELast TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOLast TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Jordan
LB
NOSacksOver 1.0
25
Low Signal
0.4 vs 1.0
-0.6
draftkingsResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Audric Estime
RB
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOQb Passing TdsOver 1.5
24
Low Signal
1.8 vs 1.5
+0.3
draftkingsO -108 / U -118
M.Graham
DL
CLESacksOver 1.0
24
Low Signal
0.4 vs 1.0
-0.6
draftkingsResearch only
H.Fannin
TE
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
24
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
Audric Estime
RB
NOLast TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
A.Huntington
DL
CLESacksOver 1.0
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Boston
WR
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Q.Judkins
RB
CLELast TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Sampson
RB
CLERush ydsUnder 18.5
21
Low Signal
19.5 vs 18.5
+1.0
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Wilson
LB
NOSacksOver 1.0
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
draftkingsResearch only
Audric Estime
RB
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
Q.Judkins
RB
CLETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Boston
WR
CLELast TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
I.McGuire
DL
CLESacksUnder 0.3
19
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.3
-0.1
draftkingsO +227 / U -295
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOLast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
H.Fannin
TE
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
D.Sampson
RB
CLELast TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOLast TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Boston
WR
CLEAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
H.Fannin
TE
CLEFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
H.Fannin
TE
CLELast TdOver 0.5
16
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
-0.0
fanduelResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
-0.0
draftkingsResearch only
S.Sanders
QB
CLEQb Passing TdsOver 0.5
12
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
fanduelO -235 / U +175

Player Projections

QB Projections

D.Watson
#4
CLE127197.31.019.20.426.7
T.Shough
#6
NO118294.91.829.20.020.5
S.Rattler
#2
NO216181.40.819.00.319.6
S.Sanders
#2
CLE210140.20.712.30.016.9
D.Gabriel
#6
CLE31093.70.711.00.08.6

Offense Projections

A.Kamara
#41
NO113256.438.84.86.195.30.7
D.Boston
#12
CLE180.0102.26.513.3102.20.8
C.Olave
#12
NO2620.178.36.09.378.40.3
Q.Judkins
#10
CLE22155.714.52.22.870.20.5
K.Concepcion
#1
CLE385.462.06.39.667.40.0
T.Etienne
#3
NO3342.717.03.74.359.70.0
J.Jeudy
#3
CLE4410.148.83.86.749.00.1
D.Vele
#14
NO4160.054.24.97.454.20.4
K.Miller
#5
NO52627.38.91.31.636.20.2
H.Fannin
#44
CLE5240.547.64.56.648.10.4
J.Johnson
#83
NO6850.035.33.24.635.30.3
R.Sanders
#23
CLE6918.418.72.73.037.10.1
D.Sampson
#22
CLE71812.620.32.32.832.90.1
N.Fant
#87
NO760.025.03.24.725.01.0
I.Bond
#0
CLE8191.522.91.32.924.50.0
K.Austin
#81
NO8140.621.31.83.321.90.1
C.Donaldson
#43
NO9618.32.21.21.720.50.0
J.McLaughlin
#38
CLE9520.62.80.81.423.40.4
B.Lance
#18
NO1070.019.32.05.019.30.1
A.Estime
#36
CLE10119.00.00.00.019.01.0

Defense Projections

A.Huntington
#98
CLE161.84.81.017.2
T.Wilson
#98
NO113.03.03.048.0
M.Collins
#96
CLE2171.12.31.715.3
K.Boyd
#97
NO221.52.03.030.0
C.Young
#99
NO3271.42.71.217.6
S.Williams
#54
CLE331.03.05.017.0
C.Wooden
#50
NO431.03.02.027.0
D.McMillon
#31
CLE411.01.01.020.0
C.Granderson
#96
NO5580.91.61.211.3
M.Graham
#94
CLE5141.01.42.620.5
C.Jordan
#94
NO61700.81.51.110.6
R.Hickman
#33
CLE640.81.00.51.0
I.McGuire
#57
CLE7220.71.31.615.7
I.Stalbird
#44
NO730.71.00.710.0
K.Elliss
#55
NO8140.62.01.17.0
M.Hall
#51
CLE890.61.40.911.0
Q.Williams
#5
CLE960.51.53.38.0
C.Rumph
#58
NO950.40.80.65.0
N.Shepherd
#93
NO10240.41.50.45.6
S.Kamara
#92
CLE1060.50.52.512.5