Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC

TB at CAR

Pick
CAR
Confidence
62.5%
Margin
+3.4
Odds
-167

Model Read

The model says CAR wins about 63 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +3.4 margin is written from CAR's side, so it means CAR by about 3.4 points. Odds -167 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CAR: 62.5% win prob | margin +3.4 pts | confidence: 62.5% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+7.2e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+7.2e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05

Player Props

Game Prop Board

J.Coker
WR
CARReceiving yds52.566.5-14.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBReceiving yds28.740.5-11.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBRush yds54.565.5-11.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
J.Metchie
WR
CARReceiving yds20.910.5+10.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBQB pass yds205.9215.5-9.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARReceiving yds78.569.5+9.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARReceiving yds30.922.5+8.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
B.Young
QB
CARQB pass yds261.6253.5+8.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Tremble
TE
CARReceiving yds23.816.5+7.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBReceiving yds22.728.5-5.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBRush yds12.17.5+4.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBReceiving yds33.436.5-3.1fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARRush yds68.770.5-1.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -MediumOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Mayfield
QB
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
B.Young
QB
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Hubbard
RB
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
J.Coker
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Tremble
TE
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Tremble
TE
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3300 / U -MediumOK
J.Coker
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1400 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
B.Young
QB
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Godwin
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Moore
WR
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -MediumOK
J.Coker
WR
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +900 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
B.Young
QB
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
T.Tremble
TE
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5500 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2500 / U -HighOK
B.Young
QB
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
T.Tremble
TE
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -MediumOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Otton
TE
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Otton
TE
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBQb Passing Tds1.01.5-0.5fanduelO +146 / U -198HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighInjury Review
T.McMillan
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1100 / U -HighOK
J.Coker
WR
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBRush yds11.911.5+0.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Hubbard
RB
CARLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -1100 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -2200 / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Sanders
TE
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Sanders
TE
CARAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +400 / U -HighFallback Line
P.Durham
TE
TBAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +260 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Johnson
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +460 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Metchie
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1000 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Metchie
WR
CARAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1000 / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +260 / U -HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +320 / U -MediumFallback Line
B.Young
QB
CARAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +700 / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Hurst
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +320 / U -MediumOK
D.Moore
WR
CARAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +400 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +460 / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBReceiving yds42.242.5-0.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
C.Godwin
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +240 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Tremble
TE
CARAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +340 / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +240 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Coker
WR
CARAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +170 / U -HighOK
J.Coker
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +170 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Waller
TE
CARAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +330 / U -HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Waller
TE
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +330 / U -HighFallback Line
S.Tucker
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +600 / U -HighFallback Line
T.McMillan
WR
CARAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +140 / U -HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +600 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +140 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Tremble
TE
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +340 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Young
QB
CARQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1fanduelO -146 / U +110HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Hubbard
RB
CARAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO -105 / U -HighOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARRb Rushing Tds0.50.5-0.0hardrockO -105 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

A.Winfield
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Pickett
QB
CARAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARQb Passing Tds0.7---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARQB pass yds44.2---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Egbuka
WR
TBAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBReceiving yds44.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
V.Vea
DL
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
L.Ransom
DB
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
X.Legette
WR
CARAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARReceiving yds29.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
Y.Diaby
LB
TBSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Parrish
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Moehrig
DB
CARSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
D.Brown
DL
CARSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARReceiving yds19.7---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARReceiving yds15.5---O - / U -HighOK
T.Smith
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jackson
DB
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
P.Durham
TE
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBReceiving yds11.5---O - / U -HighOK
T.Gipson
LB
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Nelson
LB
TBSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Wharton
DL
CARSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
P.Jones
LB
CARSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.McMillan
WR
TBAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBFirst Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBReceiving yds23.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
C.Kancey
DL
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
P.Umanmielen
LB
CARSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Brooks
RB
CARAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARRush yds13.6---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.Roberts
DL
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Horn
DB
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
S.Dennis
LB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Brown
DL
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.McCollum
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Daniels
QB
TBAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBQb Passing Tds0.9---O - / U -LowOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBQB pass yds175.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

B.Mayfield
#6
TB154238.01.821.80.518.3
B.Young
#9
CAR151192.91.219.10.414.6
J.Daniels
#10
TB24162.21.019.80.045.2
K.Pickett
#12
CAR220.00.00.00.010.0

Offense Projections

B.Irving
#7
TB13365.522.52.93.388.00.5
T.McMillan
#4
CAR1220.067.54.67.767.50.4
C.Godwin
#14
TB21250.762.75.17.263.50.3
C.Hubbard
#30
CAR28051.413.22.02.564.60.4
J.Coker
#18
CAR3260.045.83.44.845.80.3
E.Egbuka
#2
TB3230.951.24.07.752.10.4
X.Legette
#17
CAR4320.828.92.74.829.60.2
J.McMillan
#11
TB4182.435.52.74.137.90.4
C.Otton
#88
TB565-0.133.93.55.133.80.2
D.Waller
#88
CAR550.029.62.64.229.60.4
J.Brooks
#25
CAR6510.413.21.01.223.60.0
T.Hurst
#17
TB650.033.62.24.433.60.2
S.Tucker
#44
TB73320.64.60.60.825.20.4
J.Metchie
#13
CAR740.020.01.83.320.00.3
T.Johnson
#15
TB8211.322.21.72.723.60.2
D.Moore
#83
CAR8200.619.11.73.019.80.1
J.Sanders
#0
CAR9270.019.72.32.919.70.1
K.Gainwell
#1
TB9610.210.22.02.820.30.2
T.Tremble
#82
CAR10710.216.31.82.616.50.2
P.Durham
#87
TB10210.09.00.91.39.00.1

Defense Projections

A.Winfield
#31
TB1330.60.90.77.6
T.Gipson
#52
CAR111.01.01.08.0
A.Nelson
#98
TB2400.51.10.77.5
T.Wharton
#98
CAR230.71.00.75.7
V.Vea
#50
TB3660.51.20.77.7
P.Jones
#91
CAR320.51.01.08.5
Y.Diaby
#0
TB4360.51.31.18.7
L.Ransom
#22
CAR420.50.51.010.0
C.Kancey
#94
TB5240.51.30.96.7
P.Umanmielen
#3
CAR540.41.00.56.4
T.Moehrig
#7
CAR6100.30.71.47.5
J.Parrish
#25
TB650.40.61.49.4
D.Brown
#95
CAR7540.21.10.64.3
E.Roberts
#95
TB760.30.80.32.2
S.Dennis
#8
TB8120.30.70.98.6
J.Horn
#8
CAR8100.20.30.97.8
T.Smith
#23
TB9110.20.60.95.5
B.Brown
#97
CAR940.10.30.83.0
M.Jackson
#2
CAR1060.00.01.22.5
Z.McCollum
#27
TB1030.00.01.01.7