Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC

CLE at PIT

Pick
PIT
Confidence
64.0%
Margin
+2.8
Odds
-178

Model Read

The model says PIT wins about 64 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +2.8 margin is written from PIT's side, so it means PIT by about 2.8 points. Odds -178 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick PIT: 64.0% win prob | margin +2.8 pts | confidence: 64.0% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+1.5e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.15, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+1.5e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.15, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1

Player Props

Game Prop Board

Q.Judkins
RB
CLERush yds62.046.5+15.5draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEReceiving yds31.420.5+10.9draftkingsO -115 / U -109HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEReceiving yds41.031.5+9.5draftkingsO -115 / U -109HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEQB pass yds209.2203.5+5.7draftkingsO -111 / U -113HighOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEReceiving yds42.146.5-4.4draftkingsO -114 / U -110MediumOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITReceiving yds42.346.5-4.2draftkingsO -113 / U -111MediumOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITReceiving yds50.754.5-3.8draftkingsO -110 / U -114HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITRush yds67.965.5+2.4draftkingsO -110 / U -114HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQB pass yds217.2219.5-2.3draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITReceiving yds20.018.5+1.5draftkingsO -115 / U -109HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITReceiving yds24.923.5+1.4draftkingsO -115 / U -109HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEQb Passing Tds1.30.5+0.8draftkingsO -222 / U +172HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQb Passing Tds2.11.5+0.6draftkingsO +130 / U -166HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2250 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -MediumOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +18000 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -MediumOK
D.Boston
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2250 / U -MediumOK
J.Warren
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2500 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -MediumOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -MediumOK
J.Warren
RB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +850 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +260 / U -MediumFallback Line
A.Rodgers
QB
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +260 / U -MediumOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +255 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +290 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Bernard
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +225 / U -MediumFallback Line
G.Bernard
WR
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +225 / U -MediumOK
D.Washington
TE
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +290 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +250 / U -MediumFallback Line
H.Fannin
TE
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +270 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Dowdle
RB
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +255 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +155 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +155 / U -HighFallback Line
Q.Judkins
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +125 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Boston
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +250 / U -MediumOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +270 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Warren
RB
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -105 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -105 / U -HighFallback Line
H.Fannin
TE
CLEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +270 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +270 / U -HighOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEReceiving yds44.544.5+0.0draftkingsO -110 / U -114MediumOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0draftkingsO +125 / U -HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

A.Rodgers
QB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Watt
LB
PITSacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITQb Passing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITQB pass yds34.9---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRush yds30.7---O - / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.McGuire
DL
CLESacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ramsey
DB
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
C.Heyward
DL
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Schwesinger
LB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Pittman
WR
PITAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITReceiving yds30.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
Ni.Herbig
LB
PITSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
G.Delpit
DB
CLESacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
K.Benton
DL
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sawyer
LB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Graham
DL
CLESacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
D.Ward
DB
CLESacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLERush yds17.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Skowronek
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Skowronek
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Skowronek
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Skowronek
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Skowronek
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Skowronek
WR
PITReceiving yds14.8---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Campbell
DB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.McMillon
DB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Highsmith
LB
PITSacks0.6---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Collins
DL
CLESacks0.5---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEQb Passing Tds0.6---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEQB pass yds54.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Huntington
DL
CLESacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Boston
WR
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Gabriel
QB
CLEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Gabriel
QB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Gabriel
QB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Gabriel
QB
CLEQb Passing Tds0.9---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Gabriel
QB
CLEQB pass yds61.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Gabriel
QB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Gabriel
QB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Harmon
DL
PITSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
G.Bernard
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hall
DL
CLESacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
R.Sanders
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLERush yds18.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Sampson
RB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Sampson
RB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Sampson
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Sampson
RB
CLERush yds22.2---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Sampson
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Sampson
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Wilson
WR
PITAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITReceiving yds29.5---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
I.Bond
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEReceiving yds27.4---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Echols
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
A.Estime
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Estime
RB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Estime
RB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Estime
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Estime
RB
CLERush yds29.5---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Estime
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Estime
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Porter
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
B.Smith
WR
PITAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
B.Smith
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
B.Smith
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
B.Smith
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
B.Smith
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
B.Smith
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
B.Smith
WR
PITReceiving yds15.3---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

D.Watson
#4
CLE126192.41.018.90.527.7
A.Rodgers
#8
PIT123218.31.621.30.03.7
M.Rudolph
#2
PIT227125.70.812.20.43.9
S.Sanders
#2
CLE29155.60.813.40.018.8
D.Gabriel
#6
CLE31093.70.711.00.08.6

Offense Projections

J.Warren
#30
PIT17145.021.42.73.366.40.2
K.Concepcion
#1
CLE176.165.66.710.471.70.0
D.Metcalf
#4
PIT2221.055.64.17.156.70.4
Q.Judkins
#10
CLE22057.214.12.32.971.20.5
D.Boston
#12
CLE370.053.12.96.053.10.4
R.Dowdle
#13
PIT3429.520.53.34.350.00.0
J.Jeudy
#3
CLE4400.150.03.96.850.20.1
G.Bernard
#17
PIT460.742.34.56.243.00.2
P.Freiermuth
#88
PIT5810.035.53.54.835.60.3
H.Fannin
#44
CLE5230.643.04.26.343.50.4
R.Sanders
#23
CLE6918.418.72.73.037.10.1
M.Pittman
#11
PIT630.029.72.34.029.70.0
D.Sampson
#22
CLE71712.917.82.12.530.80.1
R.Wilson
#14
PIT7140.025.31.93.325.30.3
D.Washington
#80
PIT8410.019.11.82.519.10.1
I.Bond
#0
CLE8181.624.21.43.125.80.0
J.McLaughlin
#38
CLE9520.62.80.81.423.40.4
B.Smith
#87
PIT920.012.01.01.012.00.0
B.Skowronek
#15
PIT10230.07.40.50.77.40.1
A.Estime
#36
CLE10119.00.00.00.019.01.0

Defense Projections

T.Watt
#90
PIT11141.02.11.212.3
D.McMillon
#31
CLE111.01.01.020.0
A.Highsmith
#56
PIT2600.81.51.110.0
M.Collins
#96
CLE2100.71.30.76.7
D.Harmon
#99
PIT340.81.30.33.3
A.Huntington
#98
CLE310.51.00.04.0
I.McGuire
#57
CLE4170.31.01.18.7
J.Ramsey
#5
PIT440.81.01.012.3
C.Heyward
#97
PIT51490.61.40.98.3
M.Hall
#51
CLE580.31.30.64.9
Ni.Herbig
#51
PIT6260.61.20.910.1
C.Schwesinger
#49
CLE6100.30.91.16.8
G.Delpit
#9
CLE7280.20.60.94.9
K.Benton
#95
PIT7200.41.40.56.0
M.Graham
#94
CLE8100.10.40.71.9
J.Sawyer
#33
PIT840.31.50.85.8
D.Ward
#21
CLE9180.00.30.72.0
B.Echols
#26
PIT940.30.50.84.5
J.Porter
#25
PIT1040.30.00.82.3
T.Campbell
#7
CLE1020.00.50.52.0