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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 15, 6:00 PM UTC

JAX at TEN

Pick
JAX
Confidence
85.0%
Margin
-11.3
Odds
+567

Model Read

The home-team number says TEN wins about 15 out of 100 times. Because the pick is JAX, use the other side of that math: JAX wins about 85 out of 100 times. The -11.3 margin is written from TEN's side, so it means JAX by about 11.3 points. Odds +567 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick JAX: 85.0% win prob | margin -11.3 pts | confidence: 85.0% away | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+4.1e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+4.1e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose none

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Julius Chestnut
RB
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
71
Solid Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
LeQuint Allen Jr.
RB
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Dike
WR
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Ridley
WR
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Carter
RB
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
W.Robinson
WR
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Cameron
WR
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Nicholas Singleton
RB
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
G.Helm
TE
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Strange
TE
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Kalel Mullings
RB
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
David Martin-Robinson
TE
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Julius Chestnut
RB
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Daniel Bellinger
TE
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Kylen Granson
TE
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Julius Chestnut
RB
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
David Martin-Robinson
TE
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Kalel Mullings
RB
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Pollard
RB
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Kylen Granson
TE
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
M.Carter
RB
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Quintin Morris
TE
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
66
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Koziol
TE
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Nicholas Singleton
RB
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Tate
WR
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Spears
RB
TENThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Meyers
WR
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
B.Tuten
RB
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
T.Koziol
TE
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Quintin Morris
TE
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
G.Helm
TE
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Kalel Mullings
RB
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
LeQuint Allen Jr.
RB
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Nicholas Singleton
RB
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
P.Washington
WR
JAXReceiving ydsUnder 60.5
59
Mild Lean
51.7 vs 60.5
-8.8
fanduelO -114 / U -114
David Martin-Robinson
TE
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
P.Washington
WR
JAXThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Ridley
WR
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Daniel Bellinger
TE
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Ward
QB
TENQB pass ydsUnder 198.5
55
Mild Lean
171.6 vs 198.5
-26.9
fanduelO -114 / U -114
B.Tuten
RB
JAXRush ydsUnder 62.5
55
Review First
50.4 vs 62.5
-12.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
T.Spears
RB
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
54
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
C.Dike
WR
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
53
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Quintin Morris
TE
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
T.Pollard
RB
TENRush ydsOver 58.5
52
Low Signal
70.9 vs 58.5
+12.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
C.Ward
QB
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
T.Koziol
TE
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Daniel Bellinger
TE
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
LeQuint Allen Jr.
RB
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
LeQuint Allen Jr.
RB
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Nicholas Singleton
RB
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Meyers
WR
JAXReceiving ydsOver 41.5
43
Review First
49.1 vs 41.5
+7.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
M.Carter
RB
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Dike
WR
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Carter
RB
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Carter
RB
TENLast TdOver 0.5
39
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXQB pass ydsUnder 247.5
37
Low Signal
231.7 vs 247.5
-15.8
fanduelO -114 / U -114
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Meyers
WR
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
37
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
G.Helm
TE
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Ward
QB
TENQb Passing TdsOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
1.0 vs 0.5
+0.5
fanduelO -230 / U +168
T.Spears
RB
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
36
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Spears
RB
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
36
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
G.Helm
TE
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Ridley
WR
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
G.Helm
TE
TENLast TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Ward
QB
TENLast TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Daniel Bellinger
TE
TENLast TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Tate
WR
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
32
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Ridley
WR
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
C.Ward
QB
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
C.Ward
QB
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
B.Strange
TE
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
B.Strange
TE
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
LeQuint Allen Jr.
RB
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
W.Robinson
WR
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
B.Strange
TE
JAXReceiving ydsUnder 35.5
29
Low Signal
38.9 vs 35.5
+3.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
T.Koziol
TE
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Tate
WR
TENLast TdOver 0.5
29
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
W.Robinson
WR
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Dike
WR
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
B.Strange
TE
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXQb Passing TdsOver 1.5
27
Low Signal
1.7 vs 1.5
+0.2
draftkingsO -160 / U +125
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
J.Cameron
WR
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
B.Strange
TE
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
J.Cameron
WR
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENLast TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Dike
WR
TENLast TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Meyers
WR
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
24
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Meyers
WR
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
23
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
C.Tate
WR
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
W.Robinson
WR
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
C.Tate
WR
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Ridley
WR
TENLast TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
B.Tuten
RB
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
21
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
T.Pollard
RB
TENTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
P.Washington
WR
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Pollard
RB
TENLast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Meyers
WR
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
19
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Spears
RB
TENLast TdOver 0.5
19
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cameron
WR
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
P.Washington
WR
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
P.Washington
WR
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
T.Pollard
RB
TENFirst TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
W.Robinson
WR
TENLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Review First
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
17
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Pollard
RB
TENAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
P.Washington
WR
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
16
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
B.Tuten
RB
JAXAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Review First
0.6 vs 0.5
+0.1
hardrockResearch only
B.Tuten
RB
JAXLast TdOver 0.5
16
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
B.Tuten
RB
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
15
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cameron
WR
JAXFirst TdOver 0.5
12
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

T.Lawrence
#16
JAX185232.41.420.90.517.9
C.Ward
#1
TEN125215.11.022.10.013.1
Q.Ewers
#10
JAX218.00.01.00.00.0
N.Mullens
#14
JAX353.80.00.60.0-2.2

Offense Projections

Bri.Thomas
#7
JAX1381.855.43.86.557.20.4
C.Tate
#14
TEN170.097.38.011.997.30.1
T.Pollard
#20
TEN24172.613.12.33.285.70.4
J.Meyers
#3
JAX2170.950.44.05.851.30.3
C.Ridley
#0
TEN3301.848.63.05.850.50.2
B.Tuten
#33
JAX32336.011.31.11.347.30.6
P.Washington
#11
JAX4430.343.33.15.243.60.3
W.Robinson
#4
TEN480.248.16.49.148.40.6
T.Spears
#2
TEN54824.620.63.13.745.10.2
B.Strange
#85
JAX5390.034.43.14.134.40.2
E.Ayomanor
#5
TEN6240.035.02.55.235.00.3
C.Rodriguez
#24
JAX6828.54.50.50.633.00.5
G.Helm
#84
TEN7230.025.13.04.025.10.1
N.Boerkircher
#87
JAX770.020.61.31.720.60.3
C.Dike
#17
TEN8250.722.92.53.623.60.2
J.Cameron
#19
JAX880.015.41.11.815.40.3
T.Koziol
#88
JAX920.011.51.51.511.50.0
M.Carter
#35
TEN917.07.01.01.014.00.0
A.Abdullah
#20
JAX10811.00.20.30.411.20.0
X.Restrepo
#87
TEN1030.013.71.02.313.70.0

Defense Projections

J.Martin
#57
TEN172.96.43.354.3
B.Combs
#50
JAX113.03.03.036.0
J.Johnson
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TEN242.54.84.340.8
J.Huskey
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JAX213.03.03.060.0
T.Adams
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TEN321.53.01.53.0
Bry.Thomas
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JAX312.04.00.016.0
K.Faulk
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TEN431.32.33.738.0
R.Orhorhoro
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JAX421.53.00.00.0
J.Simmons
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TEN5670.81.71.312.0
B.Green
#95
JAX521.00.51.015.0
J.Allen
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JAX6950.71.90.910.0
A.Taylor
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TEN640.82.34.05.5
T.Walker
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JAX7550.71.40.89.4
J.Franklin-Myers
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TEN760.82.01.72.2
A.Johnson
#6
JAX870.60.71.37.7
T.Jones
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TEN820.81.01.013.5
A.Armstead
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JAX9200.61.20.86.2
F.Oladejo
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TEN950.61.61.06.4
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JAX1060.61.21.514.3
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TEN1040.40.82.58.5