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Published Pick

Tue, Nov 17, 1:15 AM UTC

LAC at BAL

Pick
BAL
Confidence
67.4%
Margin
+4.8
Odds
-207

Model Read

The model says BAL wins about 67 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +4.8 margin is written from BAL's side, so it means BAL by about 4.8 points. Odds -207 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick BAL: 67.4% win prob | margin +4.8 pts | confidence: 67.4% home | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-1e+02, indoor_diff=-1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-1e+02, indoor_diff=-1; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

C.Kolar
TE
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
T.Harris
WR
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
O.Gadsden
TE
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
K.Mitchell
RB
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
J.Lane
WR
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Andrews
TE
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
R.Bateman
WR
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
K.Vidal
RB
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
L.McConkey
WR
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Hill
RB
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
E.Sarratt
WR
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
T.Wease
WR
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Scott Matlock
RB
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
LaJohntay Wester
WR
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Rasheen Ali
RB
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Matt Hibner
TE
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Cuevas
TE
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Matt Hibner
TE
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
O.Hampton
RB
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Derius Davis
WR
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Brenen Thompson
WR
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Herbert
QB
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Q.Johnston
WR
LACThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Jacoby Brissett
QB
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Flowers
WR
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
T.Wease
WR
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Walker
WR
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Scott Matlock
RB
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
66
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
J.Hill
RB
BALRush ydsOver 12.5
65
Mild Lean
33.3 vs 12.5
+20.8
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Herbert
QB
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Rasheen Ali
RB
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Mitchell
RB
LACRush ydsOver 11.5
62
Mild Lean
29.2 vs 11.5
+17.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Brenen Thompson
WR
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
62
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
J.Cuevas
TE
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Rasheen Ali
RB
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
LaJohntay Wester
WR
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Bateman
WR
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Scott Matlock
RB
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Henry
RB
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.8 vs 0.5
+0.3
hardrockResearch only
Jacoby Brissett
QB
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
E.Sarratt
WR
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Kolar
TE
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cuevas
TE
BALReceiving ydsOver 7.5
57
Mild Lean
21.0 vs 7.5
+13.5
draftkingsO -108 / U -117
K.Vidal
RB
LACRush ydsOver 18.5
56
Mild Lean
32.5 vs 18.5
+14.0
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
J.Herbert
QB
LACQB pass ydsOver 205.5
56
Mild Lean
227.2 vs 205.5
+21.7
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
LaJohntay Wester
WR
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
55
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Derius Davis
WR
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
53
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Flowers
WR
BALReceiving ydsUnder 69.5
53
Low Signal
62.9 vs 69.5
-6.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Derius Davis
WR
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Wease
WR
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Lane
WR
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
O.Hampton
RB
LACRush ydsOver 31.5
46
Low Signal
43.6 vs 31.5
+12.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
R.Bateman
WR
BALReceiving ydsOver 23.5
46
Low Signal
31.8 vs 23.5
+8.3
fanduelO -114 / U -114
D.Henry
RB
BALRush ydsUnder 76.5
45
Low Signal
69.9 vs 76.5
-6.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
K.Mitchell
RB
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
T.Harris
WR
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Matt Hibner
TE
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
K.Vidal
RB
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
J.Hill
RB
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
E.Sarratt
WR
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
L.McConkey
WR
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
O.Gadsden
TE
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Q.Johnston
WR
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Walker
WR
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Herbert
QB
LACQb Passing TdsOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
1.3 vs 0.5
+0.8
fanduelO -260 / U +188
J.Cuevas
TE
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
39
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
39
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Matt Hibner
TE
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
39
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Henry
RB
BALThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
38
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Jacoby Brissett
QB
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Andrews
TE
BALReceiving ydsOver 21.5
37
Low Signal
27.8 vs 21.5
+6.3
fanduelO -114 / U -114
D.Walker
WR
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
Brenen Thompson
WR
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Herbert
QB
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Harris
WR
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Andrews
TE
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Brenen Thompson
WR
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Vidal
RB
LACLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Mitchell
RB
LACLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Herbert
QB
LACLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Jacoby Brissett
QB
BALQB pass ydsOver 214.5
34
Low Signal
215.7 vs 214.5
+1.2
fanduelO -114 / U -114
T.Wease
WR
LACLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Herbert
QB
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Mitchell
RB
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Kolar
TE
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
O.Hampton
RB
LACTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Kolar
TE
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Lane
WR
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Harris
WR
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
R.Bateman
WR
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
R.Bateman
WR
BALLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Kolar
TE
LACLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Brenen Thompson
WR
LACLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Jacoby Brissett
QB
BALLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
O.Gadsden
TE
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
J.Lane
WR
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cuevas
TE
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Mitchell
RB
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Jacoby Brissett
QB
BALQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
28
Low Signal
1.3 vs 1.5
-0.2
fanduelO +142 / U -192
J.Lane
WR
BALReceiving ydsUnder 19.5
28
Low Signal
18.9 vs 19.5
-0.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
T.Harris
WR
LACLast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
O.Gadsden
TE
LACLast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
E.Sarratt
WR
BALLast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Hill
RB
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Jacoby Brissett
QB
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
R.Bateman
WR
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Hill
RB
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Hill
RB
BALLast TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Andrews
TE
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
K.Vidal
RB
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Lane
WR
BALLast TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Cuevas
TE
BALLast TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Vidal
RB
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
O.Gadsden
TE
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Q.Johnston
WR
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
L.McConkey
WR
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Q.Johnston
WR
LACLast TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Q.Johnston
WR
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
L.McConkey
WR
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Flowers
WR
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
LACLast TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Z.Flowers
WR
BALAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
M.Andrews
TE
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Walker
WR
BALLast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Z.Flowers
WR
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
L.McConkey
WR
LACLast TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Henry
RB
BALLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Henry
RB
BALTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
Z.Flowers
WR
BALLast TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Henry
RB
BALFirst TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
M.Andrews
TE
BALLast TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
O.Hampton
RB
LACAnytime TdOver 0.5
12
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
O.Hampton
RB
LACFirst TdOver 0.5
12
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
O.Hampton
RB
LACLast TdOver 0.5
10
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

L.Jackson
#8
BAL1121194.81.616.00.455.1
J.Herbert
#10
LAC1103256.41.623.60.418.5
T.Huntley
#5
BAL229107.20.512.00.225.4
T.Lance
#5
LAC2456.50.06.80.021.2
J.Fagnano
#12
BAL3275.50.010.00.08.0
D.Uiagalelei
#7
LAC3124.01.02.00.00.0

Offense Projections

D.Henry
#22
BAL14397.89.71.11.3107.51.0
O.Hampton
#8
LAC11753.815.02.52.868.80.5
Z.Flowers
#4
BAL2584.165.45.07.269.50.3
L.McConkey
#15
LAC2380.058.54.36.458.50.4
M.Andrews
#89
BAL31300.547.64.05.748.10.5
K.Vidal
#28
LAC32933.18.81.11.741.90.2
R.Bateman
#7
BAL4710.334.42.54.134.60.2
Q.Johnston
#1
LAC4520.641.13.05.241.70.4
J.Hill
#43
BAL58418.712.21.62.130.80.2
O.Gadsden
#86
LAC5230.136.33.04.336.40.2
K.Mitchell
#34
LAC6822.212.92.32.835.10.1
J.Cuevas
#85
BAL670.019.11.41.919.10.1
J.Lane
#6
BAL750.017.81.82.817.80.0
D.Njoku
#83
LAC720.033.53.04.033.50.0
C.Moore
#17
BAL8410.715.51.32.316.20.1
T.Harris
#9
LAC8230.425.52.23.425.90.0
D.Walker
#81
BAL9150.015.50.71.315.50.3
C.Kolar
#88
LAC960.525.02.73.825.50.0
T.Wease
#82
LAC1020.018.51.52.018.50.0
E.Sarratt
#13
BAL1010.013.01.02.013.00.0

Defense Projections

A.Mesidor
#90
LAC161.74.01.512.2
E.Burke
#97
BAL114.04.04.080.0
K.Mack
#52
LAC2481.01.71.313.9
K.Martin
#38
BAL222.02.02.029.0
T.Hendrickson
#91
BAL351.44.61.48.0
D.Tomlinson
#94
LAC321.02.00.52.0
T.Tuipulotu
#45
LAC4400.92.01.311.3
D.Walker
#81
BAL411.01.00.00.0
M.Green
#15
BAL5181.02.41.415.2
J.Eboigbe
#92
LAC5100.81.70.77.2
T.Robinson
#95
BAL6220.92.20.913.7
B.Dupree
#48
LAC6110.71.60.77.5
J.Madubuike
#92
BAL7580.61.70.76.3
T.Dye
#43
LAC7110.70.91.38.9
C.Campbell
#93
BAL8260.52.00.87.6
N.Barrett
#91
LAC830.73.01.05.7
T.Simpson
#32
BAL9170.51.11.96.8
C.Murphy
#50
LAC920.51.00.04.0
D.James
#3
LAC10440.40.80.96.4
M.Starks
#24
BAL1060.51.22.814.3