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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 15, 9:05 PM UTC

SEA at LV

Pick
SEA
Confidence
85.0%
Margin
-8.3
Odds
+567

Model Read

The home-team number says LV wins about 15 out of 100 times. Because the pick is SEA, use the other side of that math: SEA wins about 85 out of 100 times. The -8.3 margin is written from LV's side, so it means SEA by about 8.3 points. Odds +567 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick SEA: 85.0% win prob | margin -8.3 pts | confidence: 85.0% away | Offense diffs: favor crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.45, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.25; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+6e+02, indoor_diff=+1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+6e+02, indoor_diff=+1; oppose crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.45, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.25

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

M.Mayer
TE
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
C.Kupp
WR
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
T.Tucker
WR
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Washington
RB
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
A.Barner
TE
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
I.Thomas
TE
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Eric Saubert
TE
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Dylan Laube
RB
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Horton
WR
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
F.Mendoza
QB
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Nick Kallerup
TE
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Eric Saubert
TE
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
G.Holani
RB
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
I.Thomas
TE
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Nailor
WR
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Connor Heyward
RB
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
WR
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
J.Bech
WR
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Irv Charles
WR
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Dareke Young
WR
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Price
RB
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
A.Jeanty
RB
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Irv Charles
WR
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
F.Mendoza
QB
LVQB pass ydsUnder 179.5
69
Mild Lean
95.5 vs 179.5
-84.0
fanduelO -114 / U -114
C.White
WR
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Bech
WR
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.White
WR
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
WR
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Mayer
TE
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
T.Tucker
WR
LVReceiving ydsOver 26.5
67
Mild Lean
42.8 vs 26.5
+16.3
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Brady Russell
RB
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
F.Mendoza
QB
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
J.Nailor
WR
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
D.Lock
QB
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Bowers
TE
LVThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
Nick Kallerup
TE
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
62
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Mayer
TE
LVReceiving ydsOver 20.5
62
Mild Lean
34.6 vs 20.5
+14.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
C.Kupp
WR
SEAReceiving ydsOver 21.5
60
Mild Lean
34.8 vs 21.5
+13.3
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
G.Holani
RB
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Dylan Laube
RB
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Dareke Young
WR
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
I.Thomas
TE
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Dareke Young
WR
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
E.Wilson
RB
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
Nick Kallerup
TE
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Brady Russell
RB
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Horton
WR
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Malik Benson
WR
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Brady Russell
RB
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
G.Holani
RB
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
R.Shaheed
WR
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
55
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
D.Lock
QB
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
55
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Irv Charles
WR
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
I.Thomas
TE
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Eric Saubert
TE
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Malik Benson
WR
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
53
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
WR
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
53
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Dylan Laube
RB
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Nick Kallerup
TE
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Eric Saubert
TE
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.White
WR
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Connor Heyward
RB
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Connor Heyward
RB
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Tucker
WR
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Price
RB
SEARush ydsUnder 42.5
47
Low Signal
31.8 vs 42.5
-10.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
G.Holani
RB
SEALast TdOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
E.Wilson
RB
SEALast TdOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Lock
QB
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
45
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Nailor
WR
LVReceiving ydsOver 12.5
43
Low Signal
20.1 vs 12.5
+7.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
G.Holani
RB
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEARush ydsUnder 60.5
42
Low Signal
55.6 vs 60.5
-4.9
fanduelO -114 / U -114
E.Wilson
RB
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
41
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Mayer
TE
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Nailor
WR
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Lock
QB
SEAQB pass ydsUnder 203.5
40
Review First
187.2 vs 203.5
-16.3
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
J.Bech
WR
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
39
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
E.Wilson
RB
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
38
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Lock
QB
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
37
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
B.Bowers
TE
LVReceiving ydsOver 58.5
36
Low Signal
64.8 vs 58.5
+6.3
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
WR
LVLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Nailor
WR
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
C.Kupp
WR
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
F.Mendoza
QB
LVLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Bech
WR
LVLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Bech
WR
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
F.Mendoza
QB
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Kupp
WR
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Mayer
TE
LVLast TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
I.Thomas
TE
LVLast TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
F.Mendoza
QB
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Washington
RB
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Barner
TE
SEAReceiving ydsUnder 21.5
31
Low Signal
22.3 vs 21.5
+0.8
fanduelO -114 / U -114
M.Washington
RB
LVLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Price
RB
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
R.Shaheed
WR
SEALast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Eric Saubert
TE
SEALast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
A.Jeanty
RB
LVRush ydsOver 33.5
30
Low Signal
39.0 vs 33.5
+5.5
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Nailor
WR
LVLast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAReceiving ydsUnder 89.5
28
Low Signal
93.2 vs 89.5
+3.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Price
RB
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Barner
TE
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Price
RB
SEALast TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Horton
WR
SEALast TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
B.Bowers
TE
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
M.Mayer
TE
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Price
RB
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Tucker
WR
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
A.Barner
TE
SEALast TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Washington
RB
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Lock
QB
SEALast TdOver 0.5
24
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Washington
RB
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Kupp
WR
SEALast TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Horton
WR
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
M.Washington
RB
LVRush ydsUnder 26.5
22
Low Signal
29.6 vs 26.5
+3.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
F.Mendoza
QB
LVQb Passing TdsUnder 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelO -250 / U +178
A.Jeanty
RB
LVTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
B.Bowers
TE
LVLast TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Lock
QB
SEAQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
22
Review First
1.4 vs 1.5
-0.1
draftkingsO +118 / U -151
T.Tucker
WR
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
T.Horton
WR
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Tucker
WR
LVLast TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEALast TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Kupp
WR
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
A.Barner
TE
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEALast TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
A.Jeanty
RB
LVLast TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Bowers
TE
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Bowers
TE
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
A.Jeanty
RB
LVFirst TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Barner
TE
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
A.Jeanty
RB
LVAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEATwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAAnytime TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
fanduelResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

S.Darnold
#14
SEA124241.01.519.60.07.7
K.Cousins
#8
LV19260.02.222.40.00.8
A.O'Connell
#12
LV221187.20.917.90.52.3
D.Lock
#2
SEA210115.50.810.40.33.8
J.Milroe
#6
SEA330.00.00.00.01.3
F.Mendoza
#15
LV3148.00.06.00.03.0

Offense Projections

A.Jeanty
#2
LV12651.427.63.74.979.00.5
E.Wilson
#23
SEA1771.911.41.01.483.30.7
J.Smith-Njigba
#11
SEA2601.779.06.08.480.70.5
B.Bowers
#89
LV2360.570.36.28.670.80.5
T.Tucker
#1
LV3563.037.42.84.740.40.3
J.Price
#8
SEA3534.416.62.03.051.00.0
Z.Charbonnet
#26
SEA45136.513.31.92.449.70.4
M.Washington
#4
LV4930.61.20.30.731.80.1
C.Kupp
#10
SEA5250.034.02.84.234.00.2
C.White
#82
LV570.029.12.35.029.11.3
M.Mayer
#87
LV6450.026.12.73.726.10.1
R.Shaheed
#22
SEA6166.422.02.13.728.40.1
A.Barner
#88
SEA7400.725.42.73.726.00.3
J.Nailor
#9
LV770.017.42.04.017.40.1
J.Bech
#18
LV8170.016.51.52.216.50.1
T.Horton
#15
SEA8140.019.71.63.019.70.4
G.Holani
#36
SEA92110.05.40.80.915.50.1
D.Thompkins
#83
LV910.016.02.02.016.00.0
I.Thomas
#80
LV10130.013.41.41.413.40.1
V.Jones
#33
SEA10415.0-0.20.30.314.80.0

Defense Projections

T.Keenan
#91
LV114.04.04.056.0
P.O'Connell
#52
SEA111.01.01.02.0
E.Jones
#13
SEA2111.00.91.48.6
K.Paye
#95
LV252.56.22.430.7
B.Murphy
#91
SEA3181.01.91.513.6
Q.Walker
#7
LV351.61.65.028.2
L.Williams
#99
SEA4420.82.21.410.1
N.Dean
#17
LV461.22.23.721.3
M.Koonce
#51
LV5261.02.20.89.8
N.Emmanwori
#3
SEA5140.62.11.311.9
T.Hemingway
#97
LV681.02.31.816.6
M.Morris
#94
SEA650.61.81.012.8
U.Nwosu
#7
SEA7380.61.60.89.1
F.Fatukasi
#94
LV730.83.01.37.2
J.Reed
#90
SEA8700.61.50.77.5
J.Chinn
#11
LV860.81.71.216.7
M.Crosby
#98
LV91010.82.41.512.2
D.Hall
#58
SEA9360.61.90.85.1
D.Thomas
#32
SEA10120.51.11.97.6
E.Stokes
#5
LV1050.80.02.215.2