Matty The Bookie
Back to week 10

Published Pick

Sun, Nov 15, 6:00 PM UTC

CAR at NO

Pick
CAR
Confidence
56.2%
Margin
-0.1
Odds
+128

Model Read

The home-team number says NO wins about 44 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CAR, use the other side of that math: CAR wins about 56 out of 100 times. The -0.1 margin is written from NO's side, so it means CAR by about 0.1 points. Odds +128 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CAR: 56.2% win prob | margin -0.1 pts | confidence: 56.2% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-7.3e+02; oppose indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.3, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.3, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-7.3e+02

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

B.Young
QB
CARThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
D.Waller
TE
CARThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Tremble
TE
CARThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Barion Brown
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Anthony Tyus III
RB
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Mitchell Evans
TE
CARThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Metchie
WR
CARThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Brycen Tremayne
WR
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
J.Sanders
TE
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Feleipe Franks
TE
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Oscar Delp
TE
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Tyson
WR
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Trevor Etienne
RB
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Anthony Tyus III
RB
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Feleipe Franks
TE
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Mitchell Evans
TE
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
T.McMillan
WR
CARThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
J.Sanders
TE
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Metchie
WR
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
66
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Feleipe Franks
TE
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Sanders
TE
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Barion Brown
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Coker
WR
CARThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
62
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
C.Hubbard
RB
CARRush ydsUnder 80.5
60
Mild Lean
65.0 vs 80.5
-15.5
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Tyson
WR
NOReceiving ydsUnder 41.5
59
Mild Lean
25.5 vs 41.5
-16.0
fanduelO -114 / U -114
N.Fant
TE
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
58
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Bryce Lance
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
B.Young
QB
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Brycen Tremayne
WR
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Brycen Tremayne
WR
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
55
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Trevor Etienne
RB
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
55
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Trevor Etienne
RB
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Oscar Delp
TE
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOReceiving ydsUnder 73.5
52
Low Signal
67.2 vs 73.5
-6.3
fanduelO -114 / U -114
T.Tremble
TE
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Estime
RB
NOThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Waller
TE
CARReceiving ydsOver 29.5
49
Low Signal
38.4 vs 29.5
+8.9
fanduelO -114 / U -114
D.Vele
WR
NOReceiving ydsOver 27.5
49
Low Signal
36.2 vs 27.5
+8.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Oscar Delp
TE
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Barion Brown
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Barion Brown
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Mitchell Evans
TE
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOReceiving ydsOver 21.5
45
Low Signal
29.5 vs 21.5
+8.0
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Anthony Tyus III
RB
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
J.Metchie
WR
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Mitchell Evans
TE
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOQB pass ydsUnder 252.5
42
Low Signal
229.8 vs 252.5
-22.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
N.Fant
TE
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
42
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Metchie
WR
CARLast TdOver 0.5
41
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Metchie
WR
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
38
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOLast TdOver 0.5
38
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Waller
TE
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Tremble
TE
CARLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
B.Young
QB
CARLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Trevor Etienne
RB
CARLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Bryce Lance
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
B.Young
QB
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
N.Fant
TE
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
32
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Bryce Lance
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
B.Young
QB
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Bryce Lance
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Oscar Delp
TE
NOLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Coker
WR
CARReceiving ydsUnder 47.5
30
Low Signal
48.1 vs 47.5
+0.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Coker
WR
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Coker
WR
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
B.Young
QB
CARQB pass ydsOver 244.5
29
Low Signal
241.8 vs 244.5
-2.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Tyson
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
J.Tyson
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.McMillan
WR
CARReceiving ydsUnder 65.5
27
Low Signal
69.9 vs 65.5
+4.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
D.Waller
TE
CARLast TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOLast TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
T.McMillan
WR
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.McMillan
WR
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Tremble
TE
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Tyson
WR
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Hubbard
RB
CARTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Tremble
TE
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
J.Tyson
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Coker
WR
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Waller
TE
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
C.Hubbard
RB
CARThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Coker
WR
CARLast TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Olave
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
A.Estime
RB
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Waller
TE
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Johnson
TE
NOLast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.McMillan
WR
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
A.Estime
RB
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
A.Estime
RB
NOTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
C.Hubbard
RB
CARFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Hubbard
RB
CARLast TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
A.Kamara
RB
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.6 vs 0.5
+0.1
draftkingsResearch only
C.Hubbard
RB
CARAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
hardrockResearch only
D.Vele
WR
NOLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Mitchell Evans
TE
CARLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
B.Young
QB
CARQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
16
Low Signal
1.4 vs 1.5
-0.1
draftkingsO -123 / U -104
A.Kamara
RB
NOFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Estime
RB
NOLast TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
15
Low Signal
1.4 vs 1.5
-0.1
draftkingsO -133 / U +105
T.McMillan
WR
CARLast TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Shough
QB
NOLast TdOver 0.5
13
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

B.Young
#9
CAR154194.21.219.20.314.2
T.Shough
#6
NO119293.31.728.70.022.1
S.Rattler
#2
NO216181.40.819.00.319.6
K.Pickett
#12
CAR2315.70.01.00.011.7

Offense Projections

A.Kamara
#41
NO113356.238.74.86.194.90.7
C.Hubbard
#30
CAR18351.913.72.12.765.60.4
C.Olave
#12
NO2630.178.66.19.378.70.3
T.McMillan
#4
CAR2250.065.64.67.765.60.4
D.Waller
#88
CAR380.063.54.87.563.50.9
A.Estime
#30
NO3645.018.02.22.363.00.3
J.Coker
#18
CAR429-0.143.63.34.843.50.3
T.Etienne
#3
NO4342.717.03.74.359.70.0
X.Legette
#17
CAR5320.828.92.74.829.60.2
D.Vele
#14
NO5170.052.04.87.252.00.4
K.Miller
#5
NO62627.38.91.31.636.20.2
J.Brooks
#25
CAR6510.413.21.01.223.60.0
J.Johnson
#83
NO7860.035.33.24.535.30.3
J.Metchie
#13
CAR770.022.02.03.122.00.1
J.Sanders
#0
CAR8270.019.72.32.919.70.1
J.Tyson
#0
NO810.030.04.05.030.00.0
D.Moore
#83
CAR9230.516.71.52.717.20.1
N.Fant
#87
NO970.023.12.94.323.10.9
T.Tremble
#82
CAR10740.116.41.82.716.50.2
K.Austin
#81
NO10140.621.31.83.321.90.1

Defense Projections

J.Phillips
#5
CAR142.35.31.826.5
T.Wilson
#98
NO114.04.04.064.0
D.Lloyd
#55
CAR241.84.33.519.3
K.Boyd
#97
NO231.72.03.032.0
C.Young
#99
NO3281.52.71.318.3
P.Umanmielen
#3
CAR391.32.01.815.3
C.Granderson
#96
NO4590.91.61.211.6
B.Okereke
#58
CAR440.81.83.822.5
C.Jordan
#94
NO51700.81.51.110.6
T.Gipson
#52
CAR560.71.31.712.8
C.Wooden
#50
NO640.82.51.820.8
T.Wharton
#98
CAR630.71.00.75.7
I.Stalbird
#44
NO730.71.00.710.0
L.Ransom
#22
CAR720.50.51.010.0
K.Elliss
#55
NO8150.62.11.27.6
T.Moehrig
#7
CAR8120.41.21.79.3
P.Jones
#91
CAR960.31.02.38.7
C.Rumph
#58
NO950.40.80.65.0
D.Brown
#95
CAR10570.21.20.74.3
N.Shepherd
#93
NO10240.41.50.45.6