HOU at CLE

Pick

HOU

Confidence

79.2%

Margin

-6.1

Odds

+381

Model Read

The home-team number says CLE wins about 21 out of 100 times. Because the pick is HOU, use the other side of that math: HOU wins about 79 out of 100 times. The -6.1 margin is written from CLE's side, so it means HOU by about 6.1 points. Odds +381 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick HOU: 79.2% win prob | margin -6.1 pts | confidence: 79.2% away | Offense diffs: favor indoor_diff=-1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+5.2e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+5.2e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1; oppose indoor_diff=-1

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


X.Hutchinson WR	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
C.Stroud QB	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
K.Concepcion WR	CLE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Sampson RB	CLE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
I.Bond WR	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Tylan Wallace WR	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
M.Klein TE	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
K.Boutte WR	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Schultz TE	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Jeudy WR	CLE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
M.Corley WR	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Jeudy WR	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Tylan Wallace WR	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Q.Judkins RB	CLE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
I.Bond WR	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Foster Moreau TE	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Emari RB	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Jeudy WR	CLE	Receiving yds	Over 16.5	66 Mild Lean	31.6 vs 16.5 +15.1	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
N.Collins WR	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
H.Fannin TE	CLE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Boston WR	CLE	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Brevin Jordan TE	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
W.Marks RB	HOU	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
H.Fannin TE	CLE	Receiving yds	Over 38.5	64 Review First	54.0 vs 38.5 +15.5	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
I.Bond WR	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
M.Corley WR	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Blake Whiteheart TE	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
M.Corley WR	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	60 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
M.Klein TE	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	59 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Sampson RB	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	59 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Tylan Wallace WR	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	58 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	HOU	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	58 Review First	32.1 vs 19.5 +12.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
K.Boutte WR	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	57 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Brevin Jordan TE	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	55 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Stroud QB	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	54 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Dare Ogunbowale RB	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	52 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Brevin Jordan TE	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	52 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Foster Moreau TE	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Blake Whiteheart TE	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
M.Klein TE	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	46 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Jeudy WR	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	44 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Boston WR	CLE	Receiving yds	Under 47.5	44 Review First	42.2 vs 47.5 -5.3	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
J.Jeudy WR	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Stroud QB	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	42 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Concepcion WR	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	42 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Q.Judkins RB	CLE	Rush yds	Over 44.5	40 Low Signal	52.5 vs 44.5 +8.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	40 Review First	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
Dare Ogunbowale RB	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Blake Whiteheart TE	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	38 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Boutte WR	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	37 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
X.Hutchinson WR	HOU	Receiving yds	Under 26.5	37 Low Signal	25.3 vs 26.5 -1.2	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
D.Schultz TE	HOU	Receiving yds	Over 30.5	35 Low Signal	36.6 vs 30.5 +6.1	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
X.Hutchinson WR	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	34 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
K.Concepcion WR	CLE	Receiving yds	Under 46.5	34 Low Signal	44.6 vs 46.5 -1.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
D.Schultz TE	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Foster Moreau TE	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Schultz TE	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
C.Stroud QB	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Jeudy WR	CLE	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
H.Fannin TE	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	32 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
D.Sampson RB	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
K.Concepcion WR	CLE	Last Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Boston WR	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	31 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Boutte WR	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
Emari RB	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
N.Collins WR	HOU	Receiving yds	Under 56.5	30 Low Signal	59.3 vs 56.5 +2.8	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
X.Hutchinson WR	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
C.Stroud QB	HOU	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	29 Low Signal	1.8 vs 1.5 +0.3	fanduel	O -110 / U -120
Emari RB	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
C.Stroud QB	HOU	QB pass yds	Over 242.5	28 Low Signal	237.8 vs 242.5 -4.7	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
W.Marks RB	HOU	Rush yds	Under 61.5	27 Review First	63.0 vs 61.5 +1.5	draftkings	O -113 / U -111
X.Hutchinson WR	HOU	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Stroud QB	HOU	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
K.Boutte WR	HOU	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	HOU	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Schultz TE	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
D.Schultz TE	HOU	Last Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
W.Marks RB	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Sampson RB	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
N.Collins WR	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
X.Hutchinson WR	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Boston WR	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
H.Fannin TE	CLE	Last Td	Over 0.5	23 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
K.Concepcion WR	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Foster Moreau TE	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	20 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
W.Marks RB	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	20 Review First	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
D.Boston WR	CLE	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Sampson RB	CLE	Rush yds	Under 18.5	19 Low Signal	22.4 vs 18.5 +3.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Foster Moreau TE	HOU	Last Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Review First	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	draftkings	Research only
Q.Judkins RB	CLE	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
W.Marks RB	HOU	First Td	Over 0.5	18 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
W.Marks RB	HOU	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
N.Collins WR	HOU	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
D.Sampson RB	CLE	Last Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
Q.Judkins RB	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
N.Collins WR	HOU	Last Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
N.Collins WR	HOU	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
Q.Judkins RB	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
Q.Judkins RB	CLE	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
H.Fannin TE	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Review First	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	draftkings	Research only
H.Fannin TE	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	16 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Boston WR	CLE	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	15 Review First	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
K.Concepcion WR	CLE	First Td	Over 0.5	12 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


C.Stroud #7	HOU	1	54	245.9	1.5	20.9	0.3	13.0
D.Watson #4	CLE	1	27	197.3	1.0	19.2	0.4	26.7
D.Mills #10	HOU	2	44	161.1	0.9	15.6	0.6	5.2
S.Sanders #2	CLE	2	11	154.5	0.8	12.9	0.0	17.9
D.Gabriel #6	CLE	3	10	93.7	0.7	11.0	0.0	8.6

Offense Projections

Market


D.Boston #12	CLE	1	9	0.0	101.8	6.4	12.6	101.8	0.7
D.Montgomery #32	HOU	1	5	53.0	26.8	2.8	2.8	79.8	1.2
N.Collins #12	HOU	2	72	0.6	68.4	4.6	7.1	69.0	0.4
K.Concepcion #1	CLE	2	9	5.1	64.6	6.0	9.2	69.7	0.1
W.Marks #4	HOU	3	24	47.8	16.3	2.3	3.3	64.1	0.4
Q.Judkins #10	CLE	3	22	55.1	14.0	2.2	2.7	69.0	0.5
J.Jeudy #3	CLE	4	42	0.1	48.5	3.8	6.6	48.7	0.1
T.Dell #1	HOU	4	26	3.7	58.6	4.0	6.4	62.3	0.4
H.Fannin #44	CLE	5	25	0.5	47.4	4.4	6.4	47.9	0.4
J.Jordan #25	HOU	5	5	47.2	8.2	1.6	1.6	55.4	0.2
R.Sanders #23	CLE	6	9	18.4	18.7	2.7	3.0	37.1	0.1
K.Boutte #14	HOU	6	8	0.0	54.2	3.5	5.1	54.2	0.3
D.Schultz #86	HOU	7	57	0.0	44.2	4.4	6.2	44.2	0.2
D.Sampson #22	CLE	7	19	13.1	20.6	2.4	3.0	33.7	0.1
J.Noel #13	HOU	8	24	2.6	33.7	2.2	2.9	36.3	0.2
J.McLaughlin #38	CLE	8	5	20.6	2.8	0.8	1.4	23.4	0.4
I.Bond #0	CLE	9	20	1.4	21.8	1.3	2.8	23.2	0.0
M.Klein #83	HOU	9	1	0.0	32.0	2.0	2.0	32.0	0.0
X.Hutchinson #19	HOU	10	49	2.1	22.6	1.9	3.6	24.7	0.1
M.Corley #11	CLE	10	21	6.0	3.8	0.5	0.7	9.8	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


A.Huntington #98	CLE	1	6	1.8	4.8	1.0	17.2
S.Harsh #54	HOU	1	1	2.0	4.0	0.0	0.0
M.Collins #96	CLE	2	17	1.1	2.3	1.7	15.3
J.Crumedy #95	HOU	2	1	1.5	3.0	0.0	0.0
D.Hunter #55	HOU	3	32	1.3	2.4	1.3	18.6
D.McMillon #31	CLE	3	1	1.0	1.0	1.0	20.0
W.Anderson #51	HOU	4	49	1.2	2.4	1.7	18.9
M.Graham #94	CLE	4	15	0.9	1.4	2.5	19.2
S.Williams #54	CLE	5	4	0.8	2.5	3.8	12.8
L.Hall #96	HOU	5	4	1.0	3.5	1.0	13.0
S.Rankins #98	HOU	6	20	1.0	2.1	1.6	15.3
R.Hickman #33	CLE	6	4	0.8	1.0	0.5	1.0
I.McGuire #57	CLE	7	22	0.7	1.3	1.6	15.7
M.Stewart #29	HOU	7	4	0.8	1.0	0.8	6.3
J.Clowney #90	HOU	8	52	0.7	1.6	1.4	12.3
M.Hall #51	CLE	8	10	0.7	1.4	0.9	11.7
C.Schwesinger #49	CLE	9	14	0.5	1.2	1.6	11.9
J.Hansen #35	HOU	9	7	0.7	0.9	1.7	7.1
M.Edwards #97	HOU	10	13	0.7	1.5	0.4	7.6
Q.Williams #5	CLE	10	6	0.5	1.5	3.3	8.0

Previous: CAR at NO Next: JAX at TEN