Matty The Bookie
Back to week 10

Published Pick

Mon, Nov 16, 1:20 AM UTC

PIT at CIN

Pick
CIN
Confidence
66.7%
Margin
+2.8
Odds
-200

Model Read

The model says CIN wins about 67 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +2.8 margin is written from CIN's side, so it means CIN by about 2.8 points. Odds -200 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CIN: 66.7% win prob | margin +2.8 pts | confidence: 66.7% home | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-2.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.2 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-2.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.2; oppose none

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

J.Burrow
QB
CINQB pass ydsUnder 289.5
74
Solid Lean
239.3 vs 289.5
-50.2
fanduelO -114 / U -114
D.Meyers
WR
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Tinsley
WR
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Cam Grandy
TE
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Colbie Young
WR
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
Kaden Wetjen
WR
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Robert Tonyan
TE
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
B.Smith
WR
PITThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Drew Sample
TE
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
G.Bernard
WR
PITThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Burrow
QB
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Lew Nichols
RB
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Rodgers
QB
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Travis Homer
RB
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
S.Perine
RB
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
D.Washington
TE
PITThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Tahj Brooks
RB
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Metcalf
WR
PITThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Lew Nichols
RB
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Robert Tonyan
TE
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Travis Homer
RB
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Ben Skowronek
WR
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Chase
WR
CINReceiving ydsUnder 89.5
68
Mild Lean
73.8 vs 89.5
-15.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Riley Nowakowski
RB
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Eli Heidenreich
RB
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
66
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
B.Smith
WR
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Ben Skowronek
WR
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
M.Tinsley
WR
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Cam Grandy
TE
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Gesicki
TE
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
Drew Sample
TE
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
R.Dowdle
RB
PITThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
62
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
A.Rodgers
QB
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
62
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Travis Homer
RB
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Colbie Young
WR
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Brown
RB
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Tahj Brooks
RB
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Jack Endries
TE
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Tahj Brooks
RB
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
A.Rodgers
QB
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Kaden Wetjen
WR
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Higgins
WR
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Cam Grandy
TE
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Warren
RB
PITThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
G.Bernard
WR
PITReceiving ydsUnder 49.5
56
Mild Lean
40.2 vs 49.5
-9.3
fanduelO -114 / U -114
T.Higgins
WR
CINReceiving ydsUnder 76.5
56
Mild Lean
68.7 vs 76.5
-7.8
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Lew Nichols
RB
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Ben Skowronek
WR
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Chase
WR
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.8 vs 0.5
+0.3
hardrockResearch only
Eli Heidenreich
RB
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
53
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Kaden Wetjen
WR
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
53
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Burrow
QB
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
53
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Riley Nowakowski
RB
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Robert Tonyan
TE
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Jack Endries
TE
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Colbie Young
WR
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Warren
RB
PITRush ydsOver 64.5
49
Low Signal
75.5 vs 64.5
+11.0
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Drew Sample
TE
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Meyers
WR
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
D.Meyers
WR
CINReceiving ydsOver 19.5
48
Low Signal
30.4 vs 19.5
+10.9
fanduelO -114 / U -114
M.Tinsley
WR
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Chase
WR
CINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Jack Endries
TE
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Drew Sample
TE
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQB pass ydsUnder 240.5
44
Low Signal
219.9 vs 240.5
-20.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
B.Smith
WR
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
B.Smith
WR
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Jack Sawyer
LB
PITSacksOver 1.0
40
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
fanduelResearch only
M.Gesicki
TE
CINReceiving ydsOver 23.5
39
Low Signal
29.9 vs 23.5
+6.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
S.Perine
RB
CINLast TdOver 0.5
38
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Demetrius Knight Jr.
LB
CINSacksOver 1.0
37
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
fanduelResearch only
D.Metcalf
WR
PITLast TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
B.J. Hill
DL
CINSacksOver 1.0
36
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
C.Brown
RB
CINLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
R.Dowdle
RB
PITLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Washington
TE
PITLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Drew Sample
TE
CINLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Benton
DL
PITSacksOver 1.0
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
J.Burrow
QB
CINQb Passing TdsOver 2.5
33
Low Signal
2.9 vs 2.5
+0.4
draftkingsO +153 / U -197
C.Johnson
DL
CINSacksOver 1.0
32
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
fanduelResearch only
M.Murphy
DL
CINSacksOver 1.0
32
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Washington
TE
PITReceiving ydsUnder 28.5
32
Low Signal
28.4 vs 28.5
-0.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITReceiving ydsOver 27.5
32
Low Signal
33.2 vs 27.5
+5.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Burrow
QB
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
J.Allen
DL
CINSacksOver 1.0
31
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
fanduelResearch only
D.Meyers
WR
CINLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Burrow
QB
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
G.Bernard
WR
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
S.Stewart
DL
CINSacksOver 1.0
30
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
C.Heyward
DL
PITSacksOver 1.0
30
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
fanduelResearch only
D.Metcalf
WR
PITReceiving ydsUnder 49.5
30
Low Signal
50.1 vs 49.5
+0.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Jack Endries
TE
CINLast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Meyers
WR
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
T.Higgins
WR
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.7 vs 0.5
+0.2
draftkingsResearch only
S.Perine
RB
CINRush ydsUnder 19.5
28
Low Signal
22.2 vs 19.5
+2.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
D.Lawrence
DL
CINSacksOver 1.0
28
Low Signal
0.4 vs 1.0
-0.6
fanduelResearch only
B.Mafe
DL
CINSacksOver 1.0
28
Low Signal
0.4 vs 1.0
-0.6
fanduelResearch only
J.Warren
RB
PITLast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Burrow
QB
CINLast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Jack Endries
TE
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
S.Perine
RB
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Ni.Herbig
LB
PITSacksOver 1.0
27
Low Signal
0.5 vs 1.0
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
C.Brown
RB
CINRush ydsUnder 46.5
26
Low Signal
46.8 vs 46.5
+0.3
fanduelO -114 / U -114
A.Highsmith
LB
PITSacksOver 1.0
26
Low Signal
0.5 vs 1.0
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
S.Perine
RB
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Washington
TE
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
M.Gesicki
TE
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Washington
TE
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
T.Watt
LB
PITSacksOver 1.0
25
Low Signal
0.6 vs 1.0
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Gesicki
TE
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
S.Perine
RB
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRush ydsUnder 31.5
24
Low Signal
35.6 vs 31.5
+4.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
G.Bernard
WR
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Warren
RB
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQb Passing TdsOver 1.5
23
Low Signal
1.6 vs 1.5
+0.1
draftkingsO -114 / U -112
D.Metcalf
WR
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
D.Meyers
WR
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Higgins
WR
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Gesicki
TE
CINLast TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
G.Bernard
WR
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
R.Dowdle
RB
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Metcalf
WR
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
M.Gesicki
TE
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Warren
RB
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Washington
TE
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
G.Bernard
WR
PITLast TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Brown
RB
CINAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
M.Tinsley
WR
CINLast TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Chase
WR
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Warren
RB
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
C.Brown
RB
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
R.Dowdle
RB
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Higgins
WR
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
D.Metcalf
WR
PITFirst TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Chase
WR
CINLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Brown
RB
CINFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Dowdle
RB
PITTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Chase
WR
CINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
T.Higgins
WR
CINLast TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITLast TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Burrow
#9
CIN185272.92.125.20.510.9
A.Rodgers
#8
PIT124216.41.520.90.03.5
M.Rudolph
#2
PIT227125.70.812.20.43.9
J.Flacco
#16
CIN29184.91.417.60.02.4

Offense Projections

J.Chase
#1
CIN1860.887.06.79.887.80.7
J.Warren
#30
PIT17246.321.12.73.367.50.2
C.Brown
#30
CIN25150.722.73.54.273.40.5
D.Metcalf
#4
PIT2231.053.44.07.154.40.3
T.Higgins
#5
CIN3900.368.94.97.569.20.6
R.Dowdle
#13
PIT3534.816.42.63.451.20.2
M.Gesicki
#88
CIN4350.035.03.24.335.00.3
G.Bernard
#17
PIT470.640.64.66.041.10.1
P.Freiermuth
#88
PIT5820.135.53.54.835.60.3
S.Perine
#34
CIN56523.110.91.61.934.00.3
D.Meyers
#81
CIN683.227.82.33.331.00.0
M.Pittman
#11
PIT630.029.72.34.029.70.0
A.Iosivas
#80
CIN7430.324.42.03.424.70.3
R.Wilson
#14
PIT7140.025.31.93.325.30.3
D.Washington
#80
PIT8420.020.91.82.520.90.1
T.Hudson
#87
CIN8350.020.22.43.020.20.1
E.All
#83
CIN9110.019.52.52.819.50.0
B.Smith
#87
PIT920.012.01.01.012.00.0
M.Tinsley
#82
CIN10110.016.01.23.016.00.2
B.Johnson
#89
PIT1020.09.01.01.09.00.0

Defense Projections

B.Mafe
#53
CIN153.45.24.244.0
K.Jobity
#92
PIT113.03.00.00.0
D.Lawrence
#97
CIN272.13.93.435.1
J.Ramsey
#5
PIT261.82.03.543.5
D.Harmon
#99
PIT361.31.80.715.9
B.Cook
#6
CIN312.04.00.010.0
T.Watt
#90
PIT41201.22.41.414.4
J.Allen
#93
CIN461.74.22.323.8
A.Highsmith
#56
PIT5650.91.91.311.6
C.Johnson
#52
CIN581.42.11.428.5
Ni.Herbig
#51
PIT6310.81.61.413.7
K.Jenkins
#90
CIN691.21.61.29.7
C.Heyward
#97
PIT71550.61.50.98.4
S.Stewart
#94
CIN751.01.61.213.8
Y.Black
#94
PIT850.61.62.02.6
C.Howell
#55
CIN840.84.01.57.5
M.Murphy
#99
CIN9190.71.70.76.7
P.Queen
#6
PIT9190.61.21.39.2
K.Benton
#95
PIT10250.41.50.96.4
B.Carter
#49
CIN1080.61.32.112.7