SF at DAL

Pick

Confidence

71.8%

Margin

-2.0

Odds

+255

Model Read

The home-team number says DAL wins about 28 out of 100 times. Because the pick is SF, use the other side of that math: SF wins about 72 out of 100 times. The -2.0 margin is written from DAL's side, so it means SF by about 2.0 points. Odds +255 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick SF: 71.8% win prob | margin -2.0 pts | confidence: 71.8% away | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+4.2e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+4.2e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05; oppose none

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


C.McCaffrey RB	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	80 Solid Lean	0.9 vs 0.5 +0.4	hardrock	Research only
C.Lamb WR	DAL	Receiving yds	Under 90.5	74 Solid Lean	69.4 vs 90.5 -21.1	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
D.Prescott QB	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
B.Spann-Ford TE	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
K.Juszczyk RB	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Brayden Willis TE	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Watkins WR	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Brayden Willis TE	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jacob Cowing WR	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Keenan Allen WR	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
H.Luepke RB	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
B.Cooks WR	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
B.Purdy QB	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
L.Schoonmaker TE	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Robinson WR	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
K.Black RB	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Jordan James RB	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Brayden Willis TE	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
R.Flournoy WR	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Camden Brown WR	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Luke Farrell TE	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jacob Cowing WR	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
H.Luepke RB	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Prescott QB	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	66 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Prescott QB	DAL	QB pass yds	Over 268.5	66 Mild Lean	297.1 vs 268.5 +28.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
L.Schoonmaker TE	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jordan James RB	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Kittle TE	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jonathan Mingo WR	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Turpin WR	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	draftkings	Research only
G.Pickens WR	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
B.Cooks WR	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Luke Farrell TE	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jonathan Mingo WR	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	63 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
K.Turpin WR	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	63 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
K.Juszczyk RB	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Samuel WR	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	60 Review First	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
Luke Farrell TE	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	55 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Camden Brown WR	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	55 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Brayden Willis TE	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	54 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jacob Cowing WR	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
L.Schoonmaker TE	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Purdy QB	SF	QB pass yds	Under 254.5	51 Low Signal	229.4 vs 254.5 -25.1	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
H.Luepke RB	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
H.Luepke RB	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Black RB	SF	Rush yds	Over 33.5	48 Low Signal	46.2 vs 33.5 +12.7	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
C.Lamb WR	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jonathan Mingo WR	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jordan James RB	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	47 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jacob Cowing WR	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	45 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Juszczyk RB	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	45 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
L.Schoonmaker TE	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	44 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jonathan Mingo WR	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	44 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Williams RB	DAL	Rush yds	Under 64.5	43 Low Signal	59.1 vs 64.5 -5.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
B.Cooks WR	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	42 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
K.Turpin WR	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	42 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Camden Brown WR	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Prescott QB	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Spann-Ford TE	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Robinson WR	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Robinson WR	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Watkins WR	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Prescott QB	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	38 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
B.Spann-Ford TE	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	38 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Kittle TE	SF	Receiving yds	Under 62.5	38 Low Signal	61.1 vs 62.5 -1.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
B.Cooks WR	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	37 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
K.Juszczyk RB	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	37 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Luke Farrell TE	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Keenan Allen WR	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	34 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Watkins WR	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	34 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
K.Turpin WR	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	34 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
D.Robinson WR	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
B.Spann-Ford TE	DAL	Last Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
K.Juszczyk RB	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
B.Purdy QB	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Purdy QB	SF	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	31 Low Signal	1.8 vs 1.5 +0.3	fanduel	O -225 / U +164
K.Black RB	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Jacob Cowing WR	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
K.Black RB	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
B.Purdy QB	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
D.Robinson WR	SF	Receiving yds	Under 28.5	30 Low Signal	29.3 vs 28.5 +0.8	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
C.McCaffrey RB	SF	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
B.Spann-Ford TE	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Purdy QB	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.McCaffrey RB	SF	Rush yds	Under 62.5	27 Low Signal	61.9 vs 62.5 -0.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
C.Lamb WR	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Samuel WR	SF	Receiving yds	Under 37.5	27 Review First	41.5 vs 37.5 +4.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
D.Prescott QB	DAL	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
R.Flournoy WR	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
K.Black RB	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
R.Flournoy WR	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
G.Pickens WR	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Robinson WR	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
G.Kittle TE	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
G.Pickens WR	DAL	Last Td	Over 0.5	24 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
B.Purdy QB	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
R.Flournoy WR	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
K.Black RB	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
G.Kittle TE	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Pickens WR	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
G.Pickens WR	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	22 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Williams RB	DAL	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
C.Lamb WR	DAL	Last Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
J.Watkins WR	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Keenan Allen WR	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
G.Kittle TE	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Keenan Allen WR	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Williams RB	DAL	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
C.McCaffrey RB	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
R.Flournoy WR	DAL	Last Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
D.Prescott QB	DAL	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	18 Low Signal	1.6 vs 1.5 +0.1	fanduel	O -188 / U +140
J.Williams RB	DAL	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
C.Lamb WR	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
G.Kittle TE	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
J.Williams RB	DAL	First Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Samuel WR	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	16 Review First	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
D.Samuel WR	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	16 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Williams RB	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.5 vs 0.5 +0.0	hardrock	Research only
C.Lamb WR	DAL	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.5 vs 0.5 +0.0	hardrock	Research only
C.McCaffrey RB	SF	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	draftkings	Research only
C.McCaffrey RB	SF	First Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Samuel WR	SF	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	15 Review First	0.5 vs 0.5 -0.0	draftkings	Research only
D.Samuel WR	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	15 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
J.Watkins WR	SF	Last Td	Over 0.5	11 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


D.Prescott #4	DAL	1	148	259.3	1.8	23.0	0.6	15.0
B.Purdy #13	SF	1	57	248.0	1.8	19.8	0.5	15.5
M.Jones #10	SF	2	13	165.5	1.0	15.5	0.0	4.2

Offense Projections

Market


C.Lamb #88	DAL	1	103	3.7	80.8	6.2	9.2	84.5	0.5
C.McCaffrey #23	SF	1	56	73.8	42.6	5.0	6.2	116.5	1.0
D.Samuel #19	SF	2	85	14.4	58.8	4.1	6.2	73.2	0.5
J.Williams #33	DAL	2	25	73.2	10.6	2.4	3.2	83.8	0.9
G.Pickens #3	DAL	3	25	0.0	78.5	5.3	8.0	78.5	0.4
M.Evans #5	SF	3	6	0.0	70.0	4.5	6.5	70.0	0.5
G.Kittle #85	SF	4	132	0.5	64.3	4.8	6.5	64.8	0.4
T.Goodson #32	DAL	4	6	47.2	6.8	1.5	2.8	54.0	0.0
J.Ferguson #87	DAL	5	67	0.0	32.3	3.7	5.1	32.3	0.3
J.Watkins #17	SF	5	6	0.0	41.7	2.0	2.7	41.7	0.2
R.Flournoy #19	DAL	6	31	0.9	31.4	2.6	3.8	32.3	0.2
K.Black #26	SF	6	8	37.9	0.5	0.4	0.8	38.4	0.1
K.Turpin #9	DAL	7	53	6.0	18.7	1.4	2.2	24.7	0.2
J.Tonges #88	SF	7	10	0.0	29.3	3.4	4.6	29.3	0.5
L.Schoonmaker #86	DAL	8	38	0.0	12.3	1.4	2.0	12.3	0.1
D.Robinson #11	SF	8	17	0.4	22.5	1.8	2.6	22.8	0.1
K.Juszczyk #44	SF	9	127	1.7	17.2	1.7	2.2	18.9	0.2
B.Spann-Ford #89	DAL	9	31	0.0	9.9	1.1	1.6	9.9	0.0
H.Luepke #30	DAL	10	40	3.6	6.2	0.8	1.0	9.8	0.1
B.Cooks #84	SF	10	5	0.0	18.2	1.6	3.6	18.2	0.4

Defense Projections

Market


V.Miller #40	DAL	1	2	2.0	2.0	3.5	67.0
O.Okoronkwo #59	SF	1	2	2.0	5.5	0.0	0.0
Q.Williams #92	DAL	2	14	1.5	2.9	3.4	26.0
J.Dugger #53	SF	2	2	2.0	2.0	4.0	34.0
G.Halton #93	SF	3	4	1.5	1.5	4.3	28.3
E.Garcia #93	DAL	3	2	1.5	5.5	1.5	6.0
C.Downs #13	DAL	4	3	1.3	2.3	0.3	7.7
M.Sigle #36	SF	4	2	1.5	1.5	2.0	15.5
O.Odighizuwa #92	SF	5	5	1.2	4.6	1.6	17.0
J.Bullard #90	DAL	5	2	1.0	3.5	0.0	0.0
K.White #56	SF	6	11	1.2	2.1	1.4	17.3
M.Lawrence #57	DAL	6	3	1.0	3.3	1.0	22.0
J.Houston #41	DAL	7	11	0.9	1.9	0.9	10.7
R.Height #94	SF	7	4	1.1	4.0	0.0	6.8
R.Gary #7	DAL	8	5	0.8	5.4	1.0	3.4
S.Valdez #55	SF	8	3	1.0	3.0	2.0	12.0
N.Bosa #97	SF	9	77	0.8	2.2	1.3	12.3
D.Ezeiruaku #6	DAL	9	15	0.7	2.0	1.3	10.1
D.Overshown #0	DAL	10	7	0.7	0.7	1.4	11.1
M.Williams #98	SF	10	5	0.8	1.2	1.4	19.0

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