Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Thu, Sep 17, 11:00 PM UTC

DET at BUF

Pick
BUF
Confidence
59.6%
Margin
+2.6
Odds
-147

Model Read

The model says BUF wins about 60 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +2.6 margin is written from BUF's side, so it means BUF by about 2.6 points. Odds -147 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick BUF: 59.6% win prob | margin +2.6 pts | confidence: 59.6% home | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.3, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1; oppose indoor_diff=-1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor indoor_diff=-1; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.3, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1