Back to week 3
Published Pick
Tue, Sep 29, 12:15 AM UTC
PHI at CHI
Pick
PHI
Confidence
31.0%
Margin
-1.5
Odds
+223
Model Read
The home-team number says CHI wins about 31 out of 100 times. Because the pick is PHI, use the other side of that math: PHI wins about 69 out of 100 times. The -1.5 margin is written from CHI's side, so it means PHI by about 1.5 points. Odds +223 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick PHI: 69.0% win prob | margin -1.5 pts | confidence: 69.0% away | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.4, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.25; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+5.6e+02 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+5.6e+02; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.4, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.25
Player Props
Game Prop Board
T.Bagent QB | CHI | QB pass yds | 79.1 | 175.5 | -96.4 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | Medium | Injury Review |
R.Odunze WR | CHI | Receiving yds | 44.0 | 25.5 | +18.5 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | High | Injury Review |
S.Barkley RB | PHI | Rush yds | 54.0 | 71.5 | -17.5 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | High | OK |
K.Monangai RB | CHI | Rush yds | 53.0 | 38.5 | +14.5 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | Medium | OK |
D.Smith WR | PHI | Receiving yds | 60.6 | 72.5 | -11.9 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | High | OK |
K.Raymond WR | CHI | Receiving yds | 35.9 | 24.5 | +11.4 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | High | OK |
C.Kmet TE | CHI | Receiving yds | 20.4 | 9.5 | +10.9 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | High | OK |
L.Burden WR | CHI | Receiving yds | 39.3 | 35.5 | +3.8 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | Medium | OK |
C.Loveland TE | CHI | Receiving yds | 31.7 | 35.5 | -3.8 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | Medium | OK |
D.Wicks WR | PHI | Receiving yds | 38.8 | 42.5 | -3.7 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | High | OK |
J.Hurts QB | PHI | QB pass yds | 215.4 | 218.5 | -3.1 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | High | OK |
D.Swift RB | CHI | Rush yds | 62.0 | 60.5 | +1.5 | fanduel | O -114 / U -114 | High | OK |
J.Mundt TE | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +600 / U - | High | OK |
W.Shipley RB | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +475 / U - | High | Injury Review |
B.Covey WR | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2500 / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Raymond WR | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +500 / U - | High | OK |
S.Roush TE | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2200 / U - | Low | OK |
L.Burden WR | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +330 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Bagent QB | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +650 / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
D.Cooper WR | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +950 / U - | Medium | OK |
R.Johnson RB | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +2500 / U - | High | OK |
C.Kmet TE | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +550 / U - | High | OK |
D.Wicks WR | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +320 / U - | High | OK |
R.Odunze WR | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +390 / U - | High | Injury Review |
C.Loveland TE | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +290 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Bigsby RB | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +500 / U - | High | OK |
K.Monangai RB | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +230 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Bagent QB | CHI | Qb Passing Tds | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | hardrock | O -260 / U +180 | Medium | Injury Review |
J.Walker WR | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +1900 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Smith WR | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +180 / U - | High | OK |
J.Hurts QB | PHI | Qb Passing Tds | 1.6 | 1.5 | +0.1 | draftkings | O +119 / U -152 | High | OK |
J.Hurts QB | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +150 / U - | High | OK |
S.Barkley RB | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.1 | draftkings | O -115 / U - | High | OK |
D.Swift RB | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.0 | draftkings | O +130 / U - | High | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
C.Williams QB | CHI | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
C.Williams QB | CHI | Qb Passing Tds | 1.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
C.Williams QB | CHI | QB pass yds | 186.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
D.Swift RB | CHI | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
S.Barkley RB | PHI | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Wicks WR | PHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Raymond WR | CHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Smith WR | PHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Goedert TE | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
D.Goedert TE | PHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
D.Goedert TE | PHI | Receiving yds | 32.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
R.Odunze WR | CHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
T.Bigsby RB | PHI | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Bigsby RB | PHI | Rush yds | 25.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
C.Kmet TE | CHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
W.Shipley RB | PHI | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
W.Shipley RB | PHI | Rush yds | 18.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
M.Brown WR | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
M.Brown WR | PHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
M.Brown WR | PHI | Receiving yds | 26.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
R.Johnson RB | CHI | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.Johnson RB | CHI | Rush yds | 8.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Mundt TE | PHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Mundt TE | PHI | Receiving yds | 12.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Young DL | PHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Sweat DL | CHI | Sacks | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Jackson LB | CHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Ojomo DL | PHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.McKee QB | PHI | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
T.McKee QB | PHI | Qb Passing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
T.McKee QB | PHI | QB pass yds | 86.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
A.Booker DL | CHI | Sacks | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Davis DL | PHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Monangai RB | CHI | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Ringo DB | PHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Edwards LB | CHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Odeyingbo DL | CHI | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Carter DL | PHI | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
L.Burden WR | CHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Loveland TE | CHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Cooper WR | PHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Cooper WR | PHI | Receiving yds | 17.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
G.Jarrett DL | CHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
N.Smith LB | PHI | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Hardy DL | CHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
Z.Baun LB | PHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Hunt LB | PHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Stevenson DB | CHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Trotter LB | PHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Walker WR | CHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Walker WR | CHI | Receiving yds | 15.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Mukuba DB | PHI | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Covey WR | PHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Covey WR | PHI | Receiving yds | 10.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Roush TE | CHI | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
S.Roush TE | CHI | Receiving yds | 13.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
Player Projections
QB Projections
J.Hurts #1 | PHI | 1 | 94 | 195.3 | 1.2 | 16.8 | 0.4 | 38.5 |
C.Williams #18 | CHI | 1 | 36 | 219.2 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 0.2 | 27.3 |
T.Bagent #17 | CHI | 2 | 12 | 80.9 | 0.3 | 8.7 | 0.5 | 9.1 |
T.McKee #16 | PHI | 2 | 6 | 99.5 | 0.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
Offense Projections
D.Swift #4 | CHI | 1 | 35 | 63.3 | 21.4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 84.7 | 0.5 |
S.Barkley #26 | PHI | 1 | 34 | 95.2 | 16.4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 111.6 | 0.7 |
K.Raymond #14 | CHI | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 62.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 |
D.Wicks #13 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 73.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 73.5 | 0.5 |
D.Smith #6 | PHI | 3 | 82 | 0.0 | 63.3 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 63.3 | 0.4 |
K.Monangai #25 | CHI | 3 | 19 | 48.9 | 10.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 59.4 | 0.3 |
D.Goedert #88 | PHI | 4 | 108 | 0.0 | 44.0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 44.1 | 0.3 |
R.Odunze #15 | CHI | 4 | 31 | 0.5 | 48.1 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 48.5 | 0.3 |
L.Burden #10 | CHI | 5 | 17 | 2.3 | 43.9 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 46.2 | 0.1 |
T.Bigsby #8 | PHI | 5 | 16 | 23.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 26.1 | 0.2 |
C.Loveland #84 | CHI | 6 | 18 | -0.1 | 39.8 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 39.7 | 0.3 |
D.Cooper #80 | PHI | 6 | 8 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 14.8 | 0.1 |
C.Kmet #85 | CHI | 7 | 94 | 0.1 | 31.6 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 31.7 | 0.2 |
W.Shipley #28 | PHI | 7 | 21 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.5 | 0.0 |
R.Johnson #23 | CHI | 8 | 34 | 15.3 | 9.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 24.5 | 0.2 |
M.Brown #0 | PHI | 8 | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 |
J.Walker #9 | CHI | 9 | 7 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 |
J.Mundt #83 | PHI | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
B.Covey #85 | PHI | 10 | 13 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 0.0 |
S.Roush #87 | CHI | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
Defense Projections
M.Sweat #98 | CHI | 1 | 29 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 9.4 |
B.Young #94 | PHI | 1 | 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 4.8 |
M.Ojomo #97 | PHI | 2 | 12 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 6.3 |
D.Jackson #48 | CHI | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 8.5 |
J.Davis #90 | PHI | 3 | 16 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 5.8 |
A.Booker #94 | CHI | 3 | 14 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 5.3 |
T.Edwards #53 | CHI | 4 | 22 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3.6 |
K.Ringo #7 | PHI | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
J.Carter #98 | PHI | 5 | 28 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7.3 |
D.Odeyingbo #55 | CHI | 5 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
N.Smith #3 | PHI | 6 | 22 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 5.0 |
G.Jarrett #50 | CHI | 6 | 7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
Z.Baun #53 | PHI | 7 | 16 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 5.0 |
D.Hardy #92 | CHI | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
J.Hunt #58 | PHI | 8 | 20 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 5.8 |
T.Stevenson #29 | CHI | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
J.Trotter #54 | PHI | 9 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.3 |
A.Mukuba #24 | PHI | 10 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3.8 |