Matty The Bookie
Back to week 4

Published Pick

Tue, Oct 6, 12:15 AM UTC

ATL at NO

Pick
ATL
Confidence
47.9%
Margin
+1.7
Odds
+109

Model Read

The home-team number says NO wins about 48 out of 100 times. Because the pick is ATL, use the other side of that math: ATL wins about 52 out of 100 times. The +1.7 margin is written from NO's side, so it means NO by about 1.7 points. Odds +109 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick ATL: 52.1% win prob | margin +1.7 pts | confidence: 52.1% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03; oppose crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03

Player Props

Game Prop Board

D.London
WR
ATLReceiving yds66.579.5-13.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOQB pass yds271.2261.5+9.7draftkingsO -112 / U -112MediumOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLReceiving yds16.87.5+9.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLReceiving yds19.810.5+9.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NORush yds28.337.5-9.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLReceiving yds12.03.5+8.5draftkingsO -112 / U -112LowOK
N.Fant
TE
NOReceiving yds24.516.5+8.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
K.Pitts
TE
ATLReceiving yds23.529.5-6.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLQB pass yds231.2225.5+5.7hardrockO -115 / U -115MediumOK
C.Olave
WR
NOReceiving yds90.785.5+5.2hardrockO -115 / U -115HighInjury Review
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLRush yds84.487.5-3.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
B.Lance
WR
NOReceiving yds17.314.5+2.8fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
D.Vele
WR
NOReceiving yds43.544.5-1.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOReceiving yds42.541.5+1.0hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NORush yds22.523.5-1.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
N.Shepherd
DL
NOSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +350 / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Dorlus
DL
ATLSacks0.41.0-0.6draftkingsO +426 / U -MediumOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLReceiving yds20.119.5+0.6fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Jordan
LB
NOSacks0.51.0-0.5draftkingsO +375 / U -MediumOK
T.Shough
QB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
O.Delp
TE
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Olave
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +16000 / U -HighOK
D.Vele
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +12000 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +14000 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +13000 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +18000 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.London
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +14000 / U -MediumOK
K.Austin
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +15000 / U -MediumOK
O.Delp
TE
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -LowOK
D.Vele
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Blair
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +12000 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +14000 / U -LowOK
B.Lance
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -LowOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowOK
K.Austin
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -MediumOK
O.Delp
TE
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -LowOK
T.Shough
QB
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -MediumOK
B.Lance
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -LowOK
C.Olave
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +850 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Kamara
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
C.Olave
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +900 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Johnson
TE
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Vele
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
K.Austin
WR
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +5000 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -LowOK
B.Lance
WR
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -LowOK
O.Delp
TE
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -LowOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Pitts
TE
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds1.01.5-0.5fanduelO +102 / U -132MediumOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -MediumOK
K.Miller
RB
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1400 / U -MediumOK
C.Olave
WR
NOLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +700 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Vele
WR
NOLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -800 / U -HighInjury Review
D.London
WR
ATLLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +370 / U -HighInjury Review
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +265 / U -HighInjury Review
D.London
WR
ATLFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NOFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NOLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -2200 / U -HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
K.Austin
WR
NOAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -LowOK
B.Lance
WR
NOAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +475 / U -LowOK
O.Delp
TE
NOAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -LowOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1000 / U -MediumOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +330 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLRush yds29.829.5+0.3hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NOAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +265 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +110 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +285 / U -MediumOK
N.Fant
TE
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +550 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Vele
WR
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +245 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +360 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOQb Passing Tds1.31.5-0.2draftkingsO -127 / U -101MediumOK
C.Olave
WR
NOAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +125 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Kamara
RB
NOAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +140 / U -HighOK
C.Young
LB
NOSacks0.60.8-0.1draftkingsO -113 / U -112MediumOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +260 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO -200 / U -HighInjury Review

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

A.Kamara
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLRb Rushing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Olave
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Rush
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds0.5---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLQB pass yds151.3---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLRb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Etienne
RB
NOAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NORush yds43.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Vele
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
J.Bates
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Woerner
TE
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLReceiving yds11.1---O - / U -HighOK
P.Werner
LB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Penix
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Harrison
DL
ATLSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOQb Passing Tds0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOQB pass yds103.4---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Bowman
DB
ATLSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
I.Stalbird
LB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Granderson
LB
NOSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
L.London
DL
ATLSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Rumph
LB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Deablo
LB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
A.Terrell
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Howden
DB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Reid
DB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Austin
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Austin
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Austin
WR
NOReceiving yds20.2---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hughes
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLReceiving yds11.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Strand
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Strand
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Strand
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Strand
QB
ATLQB pass yds119.2---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Strand
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Strand
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
Z.Branch
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
B.Lance
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
B.Lance
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
K.Boyd
DL
NOSacks0.2---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
O.Delp
TE
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
O.Delp
TE
NOReceiving yds13.3---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

M.Penix
#9
ATL115200.90.916.30.25.3
T.Shough
#6
NO114235.81.322.30.018.1
S.Rattler
#2
NO216181.40.819.00.319.6
C.Rush
#13
ATL22114.50.511.00.010.0
J.Strand
#18
ATL3159.00.08.00.016.0

Offense Projections

A.Kamara
#41
NO112857.038.84.86.095.80.7
Bi.Robinson
#7
ATL15478.934.43.95.1113.20.7
D.London
#5
ATL2650.065.25.07.965.20.3
C.Olave
#12
NO2580.170.75.58.570.80.3
Br.Robinson
#15
ATL3344.05.30.70.749.30.3
T.Etienne
#3
NO3342.717.03.74.359.70.0
K.Pitts
#8
ATL4810.044.43.55.644.40.2
D.Vele
#14
NO4120.038.83.35.138.80.3
J.Johnson
#83
NO5810.033.12.94.233.10.3
A.Hooper
#81
ATL5580.039.23.84.939.20.3
O.Zaccheaus
#14
ATL6470.228.62.13.328.80.2
K.Miller
#5
NO62224.68.41.01.233.00.2
J.Dotson
#4
ATL730.013.71.33.313.70.0
N.Fant
#87
NO730.022.02.74.022.01.0
K.Austin
#81
NO8140.621.31.83.321.90.1
Z.Branch
#17
ATL830.07.01.01.37.00.0
C.Woerner
#89
ATL9160.05.90.91.45.90.0
B.Lance
#18
NO930.016.71.32.716.70.0
C.Blair
#19
ATL1060.03.80.30.83.80.0
O.Delp
#4
NO1010.08.01.01.08.00.0

Defense Projections

C.Jordan
#94
NO11680.81.51.010.6
Z.Harrison
#96
ATL1100.81.11.27.2
C.Young
#99
NO2210.71.70.911.1
B.Dorlus
#54
ATL2110.81.01.07.6
I.Stalbird
#44
NO330.71.00.710.0
B.Bowman
#33
ATL320.81.00.510.0
C.Granderson
#96
NO4530.71.31.09.1
L.London
#94
ATL480.60.51.16.9
D.Deablo
#0
ATL550.20.41.02.4
C.Rumph
#58
NO550.40.80.65.0
N.Shepherd
#93
NO6210.41.30.55.5
J.Bates
#3
ATL680.10.50.82.0
A.Terrell
#24
ATL7140.10.11.02.1
J.Howden
#31
NO740.30.30.54.0
M.Hughes
#21
ATL860.00.01.32.0
J.Reid
#21
NO830.20.30.72.8
P.Werner
#20
NO9190.10.30.92.4
K.Boyd
#97
NO1010.01.00.00.0