Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Tue, Oct 13, 12:15 AM UTC

BUF at LA

Pick
BUF
Confidence
40.2%
Margin
+1.5
Odds
+149

Model Read

The home-team number says LA wins about 40 out of 100 times. Because the pick is BUF, use the other side of that math: BUF wins about 60 out of 100 times. The +1.5 margin is written from LA's side, so it means LA by about 1.5 points. Odds +149 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick BUF: 59.8% win prob | margin +1.5 pts | confidence: 59.8% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-4.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.43, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.37; oppose indoor_diff=+1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor indoor_diff=+1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-4.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.43, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.37

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.Higbee
TE
LAReceiving yds36.823.5+13.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
J.Cook
RB
BUFRush yds87.675.5+12.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LAReceiving yds82.492.5-10.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LARush yds78.268.5+9.7hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LAReceiving yds15.15.5+9.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFQB pass yds235.4244.5-9.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFReceiving yds37.445.5-8.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LARush yds29.436.5-7.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LAReceiving yds68.962.5+6.4draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAQB pass yds283.7278.5+5.2draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFReceiving yds49.354.5-5.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFReceiving yds42.537.5+5.0hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFReceiving yds15.611.5+4.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Walker
DL
BUFSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +402 / U -MediumOK
J.Stewart
LB
LASacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +351 / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Fiske
DL
LASacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +208 / U -MediumOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAReceiving yds17.316.5+0.8draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
K.Turner
DL
LASacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +285 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LARb Rushing Tds1.10.5+0.6draftkingsO -160 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Young
LB
LASacks0.20.8-0.5draftkingsO -111 / U -113HighInjury Review
D.Adams
WR
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -MediumOK
T.Higbee
TE
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Nacua
WR
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +16000 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFQb Passing Tds2.01.5+0.5hardrockO -110 / U -120HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1800 / U -HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -MediumOK
M.Stafford
QB
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1500 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1800 / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Parkinson
TE
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -MediumOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2500 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Whittington
WR
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +5000 / U -HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2200 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1200 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Coleman
WR
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -1500 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LAFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Williams
RB
LALast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -1200 / U -HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LALast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -2500 / U -HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LATwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Adams
WR
LAFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LATwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +350 / U -HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1800 / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Whittington
WR
LAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Atwell
WR
LAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +210 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Corum
RB
LAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +300 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +210 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +230 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Johnson
RB
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +230 / U -HighOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -MediumFallback Line
K.Williams
RB
LAAnytime Td0.80.5+0.3draftkingsO -160 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LARb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +300 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Higbee
TE
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +250 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +185 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +250 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Davis
RB
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +185 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Knox
TE
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +240 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +240 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Knox
TE
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +475 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Allen
QB
BUFAnytime Td0.70.5+0.2hardrockO +100 / U -HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1hardrockO -105 / U -HighFallback Line
P.Nacua
WR
LAAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO -105 / U -HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LAAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO +100 / U -HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAQb Passing Tds2.42.5-0.1fanduelO +118 / U -158HighOK
G.Rousseau
LB
BUFSacks0.30.3+0.1draftkingsO +102 / U -128HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0hardrockO -110 / U -HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
Bradley Chubb
LB
BUFSacks0.30.3+0.0draftkingsO +129 / U -164HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFRb Rushing Tds0.50.5+0.0hardrockO -110 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

D.Moore
WR
BUFAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Moore
WR
BUFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Moore
WR
BUFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Moore
WR
BUFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Moore
WR
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Moore
WR
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Moore
WR
BUFReceiving yds43.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Stafford
QB
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Curl
DB
LASacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Atwell
WR
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LAReceiving yds20.7---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFRush yds12.7---O - / U -HighOK
C.Bishop
DB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Davis
RB
BUFRush yds12.4---O - / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.McCollough
DB
LASacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Palmer
WR
BUFAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Palmer
WR
BUFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Palmer
WR
BUFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Palmer
WR
BUFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Palmer
WR
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Palmer
WR
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Palmer
WR
BUFReceiving yds23.9---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LARb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LARush yds10.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Johnson
LB
LASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Sanders
DL
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
L.Murchison
DL
LASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hoecht
LB
BUFSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Oliver
DL
BUFSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Solomon
LB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bernard
LB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
C.Benford
DB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
Q.Lake
DB
LASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Ferguson
TE
LAAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LALast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LAReceiving yds21.5---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Andreessen
LB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFReceiving yds12.9---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Davis
DL
LASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAQb Passing Tds0.2---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAQB pass yds50.3---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Allen
#17
BUF1130247.31.821.30.738.1
M.Stafford
#9
LA178264.11.922.60.62.3
S.Bennett
#13
LA2113.00.02.00.09.0

Offense Projections

P.Nacua
#12
LA1465.395.47.19.8100.70.5
D.Moore
#2
BUF142.589.06.010.091.50.5
J.Cook
#4
BUF27066.917.11.92.584.00.6
K.Williams
#23
LA25772.416.12.33.188.50.8
D.Kincaid
#86
BUF3450.049.64.15.649.60.2
D.Adams
#17
LA3180.065.54.68.465.50.9
B.Corum
#24
LA43531.93.30.50.835.10.2
K.Coleman
#0
BUF4290.348.13.35.148.40.3
K.Shakir
#10
BUF5610.343.73.75.044.00.2
T.Atwell
#8
LA5511.430.62.13.632.00.1
T.Higbee
#89
LA61300.031.53.14.531.50.2
T.Johnson
#26
BUF64312.816.91.41.829.70.2
R.Davis
#7
BUF73620.27.90.80.928.10.2
C.Parkinson
#84
LA7320.022.62.43.422.60.3
D.Knox
#88
BUF81000.127.52.43.627.60.3
J.Whittington
#88
LA8231.020.71.82.421.70.0
J.Palmer
#5
BUF9150.025.51.73.125.50.1
T.Ferguson
#18
LA9140.021.01.32.621.00.3
R.Rivers
#20
LA102115.04.30.80.819.20.0
J.Hawes
#85
BUF10140.013.41.11.513.40.2

Defense Projections

D.Johnson
#94
LA160.81.50.810.7
T.Sanders
#98
BUF111.01.01.014.0
L.Murchison
#52
LA250.81.01.013.4
M.Hoecht
#55
BUF221.01.00.57.3
G.Rousseau
#15
BUF3590.51.50.97.3
J.Stewart
#10
LA340.81.50.88.0
E.Oliver
#91
BUF4630.51.20.97.8
K.Curl
#3
LA440.80.80.86.3
K.Turner
#91
LA5330.71.30.811.9
J.Solomon
#56
BUF580.41.00.58.3
T.Bernard
#8
BUF6210.40.71.15.6
B.Fiske
#55
LA6160.71.30.913.7
B.Young
#0
LA7390.71.60.87.8
C.Bishop
#24
BUF760.30.30.85.0
C.Benford
#47
BUF8110.30.31.06.6
J.McCollough
#2
LA830.71.00.714.7
Q.Lake
#37
LA980.50.50.66.3
D.Walker
#96
BUF970.10.61.12.0
T.Davis
#90
LA1050.30.60.66.2
J.Andreessen
#44
BUF1040.00.80.80.8