Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Mon, Oct 12, 12:20 AM UTC

BAL at ATL

Pick
BAL
Confidence
40.5%
Margin
+0.8
Odds
+147

Model Read

The home-team number says ATL wins about 41 out of 100 times. Because the pick is BAL, use the other side of that math: BAL wins about 59 out of 100 times. The +0.8 margin is written from ATL's side, so it means ATL by about 0.8 points. Odds +147 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick BAL: 59.5% win prob | margin +0.8 pts | confidence: 59.5% away | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+1e+03, indoor_diff=+1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+1e+03, indoor_diff=+1; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.Huntley
QB
BALQB pass yds116.5173.5-57.0hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLQB pass yds244.1219.5+24.6fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALReceiving yds38.818.5+20.3hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALReceiving yds85.368.5+16.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
A.Hooper
TE
ATLReceiving yds20.37.5+12.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALReceiving yds20.58.5+12.0draftkingsO -116 / U -108MediumOK
D.London
WR
ATLReceiving yds90.480.5+9.9fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALRush yds88.880.5+8.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLReceiving yds15.87.5+8.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLReceiving yds32.124.5+7.6fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLReceiving yds26.919.5+7.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLRush yds84.188.5-4.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALReceiving yds35.731.5+4.2hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALRush yds14.711.5+3.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLRush yds34.235.5-1.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALQb Passing Tds0.41.5-1.1fanduelO +175 / U -235HighOK
K.Hamilton
DB
BALSacks0.01.0-1.0fanduelO +880 / U -HighOK
R.Smith
LB
BALSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +800 / U -MediumOK
Calais Campbell
DL
BALSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +610 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Jones
DL
BALSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +640 / U -MediumOK
M.Green
LB
BALSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +490 / U -HighOK
Gervon Dexter Sr.
DL
ATLSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +307 / U -HighOK
Samson Ebukam
DL
ATLSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +225 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Henry
RB
BALAnytime Td1.30.5+0.8hardrockO +110 / U -HighOK
B.Dorlus
DL
ATLSacks0.21.0-0.8fanduelO +270 / U -MediumOK
J.Madubuike
DL
BALSacks0.31.0-0.7draftkingsO +350 / U -LowOK
T.Robinson
LB
BALSacks0.51.0-0.5draftkingsO +413 / U -MediumOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Andrews
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +11000 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -MediumOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
C.Moore
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -LowOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -LowOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +900 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5500 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Hooper
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
C.Moore
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +7500 / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -MediumOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +11000 / U -LowOK
C.Moore
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -LowOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -LowOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -LowOK
J.Hill
RB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +13000 / U -MediumOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +300 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Henry
RB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -900 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -600 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Walker
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +5000 / U -MediumOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +255 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds1.11.5-0.4fanduelO +106 / U -138MediumOK
J.Hill
RB
BALRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +750 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Henry
RB
BALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1500 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Blair
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2200 / U -MediumFallback Line
Z.Branch
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1300 / U -LowFallback Line
C.Woerner
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1500 / U -HighOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2200 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1300 / U -LowOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2500 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Henry
RB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +410 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1200 / U -MediumOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2500 / U -LowOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +460 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +350 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +350 / U -HighFallback Line
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +950 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Moore
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Moore
WR
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Hibner
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +950 / U -LowFallback Line
A.Hooper
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Henry
RB
BALRb Rushing Tds0.80.5+0.3hardrockO +110 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Bateman
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Bateman
WR
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +120 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Walker
WR
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -MediumOK
D.London
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +120 / U -HighOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +950 / U -LowOK
D.Walker
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +1000 / U -MediumFallback Line
M.Andrews
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +250 / U -HighFallback Line
Z.Flowers
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Flowers
WR
BALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Andrews
TE
BALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +250 / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +250 / U -HighOK
Cameron Thomas
DL
ATLSacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +206 / U -267MediumOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +250 / U -HighFallback Line
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +160 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLRb Rushing Tds0.50.5+0.0hardrockO +160 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

C.Rush
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds0.5---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLQB pass yds174.2---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rush
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Jackson
QB
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALQb Passing Tds1.9---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALQB pass yds232.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Bates
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Moore
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Moore
WR
BALReceiving yds20.9---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLReceiving yds11.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Martin
DB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Harrison
DL
ATLSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Bowman
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
L.London
DL
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Deablo
LB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Simpson
LB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Terrell
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Walker
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Jenkins
DL
BALSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hughes
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLReceiving yds11.4---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLQB pass yds137.3---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALReceiving yds25.9---O - / U -LowOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLReceiving yds15.4---O - / U -LowOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALReceiving yds16.5---O - / U -LowOK
J.Robinson
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Lane
WR
BALAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
J.Lane
WR
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
J.Lane
WR
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
J.Lane
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
J.Lane
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
J.Lane
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
J.Lane
WR
BALReceiving yds16.3---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion

Player Projections

QB Projections

L.Jackson
#8
BAL1120196.51.616.10.455.5
C.Rush
#13
ATL12229.01.022.00.020.0
T.Huntley
#5
BAL22597.80.411.20.327.0
M.Penix
#9
ATL216216.20.917.20.24.7
J.Strand
#18
ATL3159.00.08.00.016.0

Offense Projections

Bi.Robinson
#7
ATL15589.136.04.15.4125.00.8
D.Henry
#22
BAL138102.410.21.11.3112.61.1
D.London
#5
ATL2660.171.25.38.371.30.3
Z.Flowers
#4
BAL2533.765.74.86.969.30.3
M.Andrews
#89
BAL31250.548.84.05.849.30.5
Br.Robinson
#15
ATL3448.55.20.80.853.81.0
R.Bateman
#7
BAL4660.335.12.54.235.40.2
J.Dotson
#4
ATL440.047.53.06.547.50.5
K.Pitts
#8
ATL5820.044.53.55.644.40.2
J.Hill
#43
BAL57916.612.01.52.028.70.2
A.Hooper
#81
ATL6590.039.43.84.939.40.3
M.Hibner
#88
BAL630.023.31.71.723.30.3
O.Zaccheaus
#14
ATL7480.228.42.13.528.60.2
D.Walker
#81
BAL7130.017.20.71.217.20.3
C.Moore
#17
BAL8410.714.01.22.214.70.1
Z.Branch
#17
ATL840.015.52.53.015.50.0
C.Woerner
#89
ATL9170.05.50.91.55.50.0
E.Sarratt
#13
BAL910.013.01.02.013.00.0
C.Blair
#19
ATL1070.04.10.41.14.10.0
J.Lane
#6
BAL1010.011.01.03.011.00.0

Defense Projections

Z.Harrison
#96
ATL1100.81.11.27.2
K.Martin
#38
BAL111.01.01.028.0
B.Dorlus
#54
ATL2110.81.01.07.6
D.Walker
#81
BAL211.01.00.00.0
J.Madubuike
#92
BAL3520.61.30.86.6
B.Bowman
#33
ATL320.81.00.510.0
T.Robinson
#95
BAL4170.51.40.57.2
L.London
#94
ATL480.60.51.16.9
T.Simpson
#32
BAL5120.40.90.96.5
D.Deablo
#0
ATL550.20.41.02.4
T.Jones
#98
BAL6240.30.80.84.3
J.Bates
#3
ATL680.10.50.82.0
A.Terrell
#24
ATL7140.10.11.02.1
J.Jenkins
#94
BAL730.30.31.06.7
K.Hamilton
#14
BAL8280.30.70.97.0
M.Hughes
#21
ATL860.00.01.32.0
M.Green
#15
BAL9130.31.10.53.9
J.Robinson
#34
ATL910.00.00.00.0
R.Smith
#0
BAL10210.20.61.03.4