Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Oct 11, 5:00 PM UTC

CIN at MIA

Pick
CIN
Confidence
21.6%
Margin
-5.5
Odds
+363

Model Read

The home-team number says MIA wins about 22 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CIN, use the other side of that math: CIN wins about 78 out of 100 times. The -5.5 margin is written from MIA's side, so it means CIN by about 5.5 points. Odds +363 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CIN: 78.4% win prob | margin -5.5 pts | confidence: 78.4% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-4.7e+02; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-4.7e+02

Player Props

Game Prop Board

M.Willis
QB
MIAQB pass yds162.7190.5-27.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINReceiving yds71.950.5+21.4hardrockO -115 / U -115HighInjury Review
J.Burrow
QB
CINQB pass yds273.3259.5+13.8hardrockO -115 / U -115HighInjury Review
C.Bell
WR
MIAReceiving yds21.933.5-11.6fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
C.Brown
RB
CINRush yds52.162.5-10.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINReceiving yds37.727.5+10.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAReceiving yds35.926.5+9.4hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINReceiving yds33.724.5+9.2hardrockO -115 / U -115LowOK
J.Wright
RB
MIARush yds14.722.5-7.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
W.Kacmarek
TE
MIAReceiving yds13.76.5+7.2fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
M.Washington
WR
MIAReceiving yds39.044.5-5.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIARush yds43.642.5+1.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINReceiving yds77.676.5+1.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
Jacob Rodriguez
LB
MIASacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +427 / U -LowOK
S.Perine
RB
CINRush yds13.614.5-0.9fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
Josh Uche
LB
MIASacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +534 / U -MediumOK
Jonathan Allen
DL
CINSacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +172 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Bell
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -LowOK
W.Kacmarek
TE
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -LowOK
R.Miller
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighInjury Review
O.Gordon
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3300 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Washington
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Burrow
QB
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Gesicki
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Hudson
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -MediumOK
E.All
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -MediumOK
D.Herman
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -LowOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Miller
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Dulcich
TE
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighInjury Review
O.Gordon
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
T.Hudson
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -LowOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -LowOK
W.Kacmarek
TE
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -LowOK
S.Perine
RB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Gesicki
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3300 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3300 / U -HighOK
R.Miller
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Wright
RB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Hudson
TE
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -HighOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
E.All
TE
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -MediumOK
C.Bell
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -LowOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -LowOK
W.Kacmarek
TE
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -LowOK
T.Hudson
TE
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +6000 / U -HighOK
E.All
TE
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -MediumOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Wright
RB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Burrow
QB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -900 / U -HighOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -LowOK
S.Perine
RB
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Willis
QB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1200 / U -HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -LowOK
W.Kacmarek
TE
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -LowOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Higgins
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Willis
QB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2200 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Washington
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1300 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Higgins
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +430 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +295 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Herman
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2000 / U -LowFallback Line
J.Chase
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +600 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Hudson
TE
CINAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +310 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Hudson
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighFallback Line
E.All
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1600 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Bell
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +470 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Meyers
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +340 / U -LowFallback Line
W.Kacmarek
TE
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -LowFallback Line
E.All
TE
CINAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1600 / U -MediumOK
D.Herman
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2000 / U -LowOK
J.Wright
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +295 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Bell
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +470 / U -LowOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +340 / U -LowOK
W.Kacmarek
TE
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -LowOK
S.Perine
RB
CINRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +470 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Tinsley
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -MediumFallback Line
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +470 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Washington
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +310 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +750 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Tinsley
WR
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -MediumOK
R.Miller
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Willis
QB
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +320 / U -HighOK
R.Miller
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Gesicki
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +330 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Gesicki
TE
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +330 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIAQb Passing Tds0.80.5+0.3fanduelO -205 / U +154HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINAnytime Td0.80.5+0.3draftkingsO -110 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +115 / U -HighFallback Line
O.Gordon
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +150 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +140 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Burrow
QB
CINQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1draftkingsO -199 / U +155HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO +115 / U -HighOK
Z.Sieler
DL
MIASacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO +131 / U -167HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +140 / U -HighInjury Review
Dexter Lawrence II
DL
CINSacks0.30.3+0.1draftkingsO +102 / U -129HighInjury Review
O.Gordon
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +150 / U -HighFallback Line
Boye Mafe
DL
CINSacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO -102 / U -124HighOK
M.Murphy
DL
CINSacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +183 / U -236MediumOK
C.Robinson
LB
MIASacks0.30.3+0.0draftkingsO +186 / U -241MediumOK
J.Chase
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO -110 / U -HighInjury Review

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

D.Achane
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIAFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIARush yds42.9---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Flacco
QB
CINAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINQb Passing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINQB pass yds78.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Knight
LB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
R.Miller
WR
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Miller
WR
MIAReceiving yds22.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Brooks
LB
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
A.Iosivas
WR
CINAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINReceiving yds17.7---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINReceiving yds14.9---O - / U -HighOK
J.Battle
DB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Hill
DB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
K.Jenkins
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
W.Gay
LB
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Johnson
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Biggers
DL
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Grant
DL
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Slaton
DL
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Hill
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Davis
DB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Marshall
DB
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
Jo.Phillips
DL
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Stewart
DL
CINSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINReceiving yds24.7---O - / U -MediumOK
E.All
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
E.All
TE
CINReceiving yds16.4---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
C.Douglas
WR
MIAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
C.Douglas
WR
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
C.Douglas
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
C.Douglas
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
C.Douglas
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
C.Douglas
WR
MIAReceiving yds38.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
D.Herman
RB
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIARush yds4.2---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Burrow
#9
CIN181271.42.025.10.610.9
M.Willis
#2
MIA14356.00.529.00.056.0
J.Flacco
#16
CIN29184.91.417.60.02.4

Offense Projections

J.Chase
#1
CIN1820.886.06.69.786.80.7
C.Douglas
#7
MIA120.0113.07.010.0113.00.0
C.Brown
#30
CIN24751.022.53.44.173.40.5
D.Achane
#28
MIA24767.728.23.84.796.00.7
T.Higgins
#5
CIN3860.367.94.87.568.30.5
R.Miller
#84
MIA330.087.02.33.087.01.0
M.Gesicki
#88
CIN4310.036.43.44.536.40.2
C.Bell
#18
MIA440.046.02.56.546.00.0
G.Dulcich
#85
MIA512-0.642.93.74.842.30.1
D.Meyers
#81
CIN542.532.22.84.034.80.0
S.Perine
#34
CIN66122.411.31.62.033.60.2
M.Washington
#6
MIA6334.829.63.24.834.50.1
A.Iosivas
#80
CIN7430.324.42.03.424.70.3
J.Wright
#5
MIA72522.82.10.30.624.90.1
T.Hudson
#87
CIN8340.020.42.43.020.40.1
O.Gordon
#0
MIA82017.42.30.60.719.70.3
M.Tinsley
#82
CIN990.018.31.23.418.30.2
D.Herman
#34
MIA920.018.01.03.018.00.0
E.All
#83
CIN1090.018.12.42.818.10.0
W.Kacmarek
#89
MIA1040.09.51.02.09.50.0

Defense Projections

C.Robinson
#44
MIA1150.71.40.87.5
K.Jenkins
#90
CIN170.61.10.76.4
M.Murphy
#99
CIN2150.61.10.74.9
W.Gay
#40
MIA230.70.71.06.3
Z.Sieler
#92
MIA3680.51.10.98.1
D.Knight
#44
CIN360.50.80.75.2
C.Johnson
#52
CIN470.41.30.45.1
Z.Biggers
#93
MIA440.41.00.34.1
T.Slaton
#98
CIN570.41.00.65.6
K.Grant
#78
MIA560.30.80.31.0
B.Hill
#92
CIN6530.41.20.54.6
J.Brooks
#20
MIA6220.30.51.15.8
J.Davis
#35
CIN730.30.70.77.3
J.Marshall
#4
MIA720.00.50.50.5
S.Stewart
#94
CIN840.31.00.53.3
Jo.Phillips
#94
MIA820.00.50.50.5
J.Battle
#27
CIN980.30.50.93.9
D.Hill
#23
CIN10110.20.60.83.5