Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Oct 11, 5:00 PM UTC

CLE at NYJ

Pick
CLE
Confidence
46.8%
Margin
+0.3
Odds
+114

Model Read

The home-team number says NYJ wins about 47 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CLE, use the other side of that math: CLE wins about 53 out of 100 times. The +0.3 margin is written from NYJ's side, so it means NYJ by about 0.3 points. Odds +114 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CLE: 53.2% win prob | margin +0.3 pts | confidence: 53.2% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-5.8e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.15, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.1; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-5.8e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.15, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.1

Player Props

Game Prop Board

B.Allen
RB
NYJRush yds34.471.5-37.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJQB pass yds171.7198.5-26.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEReceiving yds30.512.5+18.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEQB pass yds206.2191.5+14.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEReceiving yds58.348.5+9.8hardrockO -115 / U -115LowOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJReceiving yds20.313.5+6.8fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJReceiving yds61.968.5-6.6fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEReceiving yds40.934.5+6.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJReceiving yds28.123.5+4.6fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEReceiving yds34.238.5-4.3fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJRush yds11.314.5-3.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJReceiving yds27.829.5-1.7hardrockO -115 / U -115LowInjury Review
T'Vondre Sweat
DL
NYJSacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +529 / U -MediumOK
C.Schwesinger
LB
CLESacks0.21.0-0.8fanduelO +390 / U -HighOK
Derek Barnett
DL
CLESacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +388 / U -MediumInjury Review
Q.Judkins
RB
CLERush yds58.759.5-0.8fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
Sam Williams
LB
CLESacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +273 / U -HighOK
A.Huntington
DL
CLESacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +293 / U -MediumOK
J.Briggs
DL
NYJSacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +307 / U -MediumOK
W.McDonald
LB
NYJSacks0.31.0-0.7fanduelO +106 / U -MediumInjury Review
Kingsley Enagbare
LB
NYJSacks0.41.0-0.6fanduelO +270 / U -MediumInjury Review
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -MediumOK
R.Sanders
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -MediumOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -LowOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -LowOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -LowInjury Review
I.Bond
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
J.Ruckert
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +18000 / U -HighOK
R.Sanders
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -MediumOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -LowOK
D.Boston
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -LowOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -LowInjury Review
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1300 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +700 / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Ruckert
TE
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighOK
R.Sanders
RB
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -MediumOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1400 / U -LowOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -LowOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -LowInjury Review
J.Jeudy
WR
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
R.Sanders
RB
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -MediumOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -LowOK
D.Boston
WR
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +750 / U -LowOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -LowInjury Review
B.Allen
RB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1100 / U -HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -MediumOK
D.Watson
QB
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2000 / U -MediumOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1600 / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -MediumOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -MediumOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +7000 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEQb Passing Tds1.11.5-0.4hardrockO +150 / U -200HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Sanders
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -MediumFallback Line
G.Smith
QB
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Taylor
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -MediumFallback Line
I.Bond
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3000 / U -MediumFallback Line
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +330 / U -LowFallback Line
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Taylor
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3000 / U -MediumOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +330 / U -LowOK
J.Ruckert
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighFallback Line
I.Williams
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
I.Davis
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +225 / U -LowFallback Line
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +750 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Sanders
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +850 / U -MediumOK
J.Ruckert
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +300 / U -LowInjury Review
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +105 / U -HighFallback Line
I.Williams
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +105 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +155 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Collins
DL
CLESacks0.50.3+0.2draftkingsO +109 / U -138MediumInjury Review
D.Boston
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +225 / U -LowOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +300 / U -LowInjury Review
H.Fannin
TE
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +255 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Wilson
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +155 / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +180 / U -MediumOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1hardrockO +145 / U -195HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +180 / U -MediumFallback Line
H.Fannin
TE
CLEAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +255 / U -HighOK
I.McGuire
DL
CLESacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +145 / U -184MediumOK
Jared Verse
DL
CLESacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +164 / U -211HighOK
David Bailey
LB
NYJSacks0.30.3+0.0draftkingsO +135 / U -171LowOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

B.Hall
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJRush yds63.8---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJReceiving yds34.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Sherwood
LB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
H.Phillips
DL
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
G.Delpit
DB
CLESacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLERush yds30.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Graham
DL
CLESacks0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Moore
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ruckert
TE
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ruckert
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ruckert
TE
NYJReceiving yds18.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEReceiving yds9.9---O - / U -HighOK
T.Campbell
DB
CLESacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.McMillon
DB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
B.McGregor
LB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
S.Sanders
QB
CLEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEQb Passing Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEQB pass yds35.9---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hall
DL
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
B.Stephens
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Sanders
RB
CLERush yds18.3---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Cisco
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Sampson
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLERush yds16.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brownlee
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Ward
DB
CLESacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEReceiving yds14.5---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Thomas
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJReceiving yds23.9---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion

Player Projections

QB Projections

G.Smith
#7
NYJ137209.91.018.11.019.4
D.Watson
#4
CLE123183.51.118.30.525.7
S.Sanders
#2
CLE29155.60.813.40.018.8

Offense Projections

B.Hall
#20
NYJ15963.131.33.54.694.40.5
K.Concepcion
#1
CLE144.572.08.514.076.50.0
G.Wilson
#5
NYJ2620.167.55.89.567.60.3
D.Boston
#12
CLE240.071.03.35.571.00.5
Q.Judkins
#10
CLE31855.814.82.32.970.60.4
A.Mitchell
#15
NYJ310-0.442.43.37.342.00.2
J.Jeudy
#3
CLE4370.151.23.97.051.30.2
K.Sadiq
#16
NYJ440.835.83.04.536.50.5
B.Allen
#0
NYJ52526.08.11.31.834.10.2
H.Fannin
#44
CLE5200.744.24.56.544.90.5
R.Sanders
#23
CLE6819.220.92.93.340.10.1
O.Cooper
#11
NYJ610.030.01.01.030.00.0
I.Williams
#18
NYJ7193.324.42.43.227.60.1
J.McLaughlin
#38
CLE7231.00.00.01.031.01.0
D.Sampson
#22
CLE81610.916.92.12.527.90.1
M.Taylor
#85
NYJ8140.026.13.45.126.10.1
I.Davis
#32
NYJ92814.69.31.11.424.00.1
I.Bond
#0
CLE9171.721.31.32.823.00.0
J.Ruckert
#89
NYJ10420.012.81.82.312.80.1
M.Corley
#11
CLE10167.94.90.70.912.90.0

Defense Projections

W.McDonald
#9
NYJ1290.71.70.910.8
D.McMillon
#31
CLE111.01.01.020.0
M.Collins
#96
CLE2100.71.30.76.7
B.McGregor
#55
NYJ220.51.00.51.0
J.Briggs
#91
NYJ390.41.10.97.9
A.Huntington
#98
CLE310.51.00.04.0
J.Sherwood
#44
NYJ4210.20.41.14.8
I.McGuire
#57
CLE4170.31.01.18.7
M.Hall
#51
CLE580.31.30.64.9
H.Phillips
#97
NYJ570.10.10.71.4
C.Schwesinger
#49
CLE6100.30.91.16.8
B.Stephens
#21
NYJ630.00.01.32.3
G.Delpit
#9
CLE7280.20.60.94.9
A.Cisco
#8
NYJ710.00.01.01.0
M.Graham
#94
CLE8100.10.40.71.9
J.Brownlee
#2
NYJ810.00.01.01.0
D.Ward
#21
CLE9180.00.30.72.0
M.Moore
#27
NYJ930.00.01.02.0
T.Campbell
#7
CLE1020.00.50.52.0
A.Thomas
#1
NYJ1020.00.01.01.5