Matty The Bookie
Back to week 6

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 18, 8:25 PM UTC

LAC at KC

Pick
KC
Confidence
66.7%
Margin
+4.9
Odds
-200

Model Read

The model says KC wins about 67 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +4.9 margin is written from KC's side, so it means KC by about 4.9 points. Odds -200 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick KC: 66.7% win prob | margin +4.9 pts | confidence: 66.7% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+9.3e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.6, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.55; oppose indoor_diff=-1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor indoor_diff=-1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+9.3e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.6, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.55

Final Result

Graded Result

Final
LAC 6, KC 22
Pick
KC ML
Result
Win
SU
Win
ATS
Loss
Margin Error
11.1
Moneyline Profit?
+0.24u

Player Props

Game Prop Board

P.Mahomes
QB
KCQB pass yds260.2223.5+36.7draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
J.Herbert
QB
LACQB pass yds222.3193.5+28.8draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCReceiving yds34.548.5-14.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
O.Hampton
RB
LACRush yds47.636.5+11.1fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
K.Vidal
RB
LACRush yds26.816.5+10.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
K.Mitchell
RB
LACRush yds27.617.5+10.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
L.McConkey
WR
LACReceiving yds50.541.5+9.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
O.Gadsden
TE
LACReceiving yds22.414.5+7.9draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCRush yds84.791.5-6.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
N.Gray
TE
KCReceiving yds20.914.5+6.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCReceiving yds49.653.5-3.9fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Kolar
TE
LACReceiving yds19.222.5-3.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Q.Johnston
WR
LACReceiving yds37.636.5+1.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Herbert
QB
LACQb Passing Tds1.50.5+1.0fanduelO -215 / U +162HighOK
Khyiris Tonga
DL
KCSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +640 / U -MediumOK
Peter Woods
DL
KCSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +350 / U -LowOK
N.Bolton
LB
KCSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +270 / U -HighOK
D.Tranquill
LB
KCSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +210 / U -HighOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCRush yds14.413.5+0.9fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
Dalvin Tomlinson
DL
LACSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +750 / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Dupree
LB
LACSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +450 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Henley
LB
LACSacks0.21.0-0.8fanduelO +550 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Gillotte
DL
KCSacks0.21.0-0.8fanduelO +240 / U -HighOK
Felix Anudike-Uzomah
DL
KCSacks0.31.0-0.7fanduelO +225 / U -LowOK
R Mason Thomas
DL
KCSacks0.31.0-0.7fanduelO +140 / U -LowOK
O.Hampton
RB
LACThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -MediumOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
O.Gadsden
TE
LACThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Herbert
QB
LACThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
B.Smith
RB
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
L.McConkey
WR
LACThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
K.Vidal
RB
LACThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
Q.Johnston
WR
LACThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
K.Mitchell
RB
LACThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
C.Kolar
TE
LACThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
N.Gray
TE
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1700 / U -HighOK
B.Smith
RB
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -MediumOK
J.Wiley
TE
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
T.Wease
WR
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
J.Herbert
QB
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
K.Vidal
RB
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
O.Gadsden
TE
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
K.Mitchell
RB
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighOK
C.Kolar
TE
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
O.Hampton
RB
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -MediumOK
N.Remigio
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -LowOK
N.Gray
TE
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
J.Herbert
QB
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Wiley
TE
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -LowOK
T.Wease
WR
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -LowOK
N.Gray
TE
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
C.Kolar
TE
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighOK
K.Mitchell
RB
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighOK
N.Remigio
WR
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -MediumOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -LowOK
Q.Johnston
WR
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
T.Wease
WR
LACLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -LowOK
L.McConkey
WR
LACTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
J.Wiley
TE
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -LowOK
C.Kolar
TE
LACLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
K.Vidal
RB
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
N.Gray
TE
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1000 / U -HighOK
K.Vidal
RB
LACLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
K.Mitchell
RB
LACLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -LowOK
J.Herbert
QB
LACLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
O.Gadsden
TE
LACLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
K.Mack
LB
LACSacks0.51.0-0.5fanduelO +174 / U -MediumOK
O.Gadsden
TE
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
B.Smith
RB
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -MediumOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
L.McConkey
WR
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
Q.Johnston
WR
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +330 / U -HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2200 / U -HighOK
O.Hampton
RB
LACFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -MediumOK
Q.Johnston
WR
LACLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1400 / U -HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -650 / U -HighOK
L.McConkey
WR
LACLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +350 / U -HighOK
O.Hampton
RB
LACLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -4000 / U -MediumOK
J.Wiley
TE
KCAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3000 / U -LowOK
B.Smith
RB
KCRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1300 / U -MediumFallback Line
E.Johnson
RB
KCRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -LowFallback Line
N.Remigio
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1700 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Wiley
TE
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3000 / U -LowFallback Line
N.Remigio
WR
KCAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1700 / U -MediumOK
B.Smith
RB
KCAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1300 / U -MediumOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -LowOK
K.Mitchell
RB
LACRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
N.Gray
TE
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Kolar
TE
LACWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Wease
WR
LACWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1600 / U -LowFallback Line
N.Gray
TE
KCAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
J.Herbert
QB
LACAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
C.Kolar
TE
LACAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
T.Wease
WR
LACAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1600 / U -LowOK
O.Gadsden
TE
LACAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
O.Gadsden
TE
LACWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +750 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Mitchell
RB
LACAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
K.Vidal
RB
LACRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +480 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Tuipulotu
LB
LACSacks0.50.3+0.3draftkingsO +113 / U -143HighOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +155 / U -HighFallback Line
Q.Johnston
WR
LACWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Kelce
TE
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +135 / U -HighFallback Line
L.McConkey
WR
LACWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +380 / U -HighFallback Line
X.Worthy
WR
KCAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +155 / U -HighOK
Q.Johnston
WR
LACAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +400 / U -HighOK
K.Vidal
RB
LACAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +480 / U -HighOK
L.McConkey
WR
LACAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +380 / U -HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCAnytime Td0.70.5+0.2draftkingsO -165 / U -HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCRb Rushing Tds0.70.5+0.2draftkingsO -165 / U -HighFallback Line
O.Hampton
RB
LACRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +290 / U -MediumFallback Line
O.Hampton
RB
LACAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +290 / U -MediumOK
G.Karlaftis
DL
KCSacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO -117 / U -108HighOK
C.Jones
DL
KCSacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO +132 / U -168HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +135 / U -HighOK
Akheem Mesidor
LB
LACSacks0.30.3+0.1draftkingsO +218 / U -284MediumOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCQb Passing Tds1.41.5-0.1fanduelO -120 / U -108HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

N.Williams
DB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
R.Rice
WR
KCAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
R.Rice
WR
KCFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
R.Rice
WR
KCLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
R.Rice
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
R.Rice
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
R.Rice
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
R.Rice
WR
KCReceiving yds66.5---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Eboigbe
DL
LACSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Thornton
WR
KCAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCReceiving yds39.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Njoku
TE
LACAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Njoku
TE
LACFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Njoku
TE
LACLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Njoku
TE
LACThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Njoku
TE
LACTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Njoku
TE
LACWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Njoku
TE
LACReceiving yds29.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Harris
WR
LACAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Harris
WR
LACFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Harris
WR
LACLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Harris
WR
LACThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Harris
WR
LACTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Harris
WR
LACWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Harris
WR
LACReceiving yds36.5---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Phillips
LB
LACSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Lance
QB
LACAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Lance
QB
LACFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Lance
QB
LACLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Lance
QB
LACQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Lance
QB
LACQB pass yds75.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Lance
QB
LACThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Lance
QB
LACTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
C.Conner
DB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Murphy
LB
LACSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.James
DB
LACSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
B.Smith
RB
KCLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Smith
RB
KCRush yds13.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Hicks
DB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.McDonald
LB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
N.Remigio
WR
KCLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
N.Remigio
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
N.Remigio
WR
KCReceiving yds8.7---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Dye
LB
LACSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Caldwell
DL
LACSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Wiley
TE
KCThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Wiley
TE
KCReceiving yds11.3---O - / U -LowOK
T.Wease
WR
LACThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
T.Wease
WR
LACReceiving yds31.1---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

P.Mahomes
#15
KC1130284.42.124.40.620.8
J.Herbert
#10
LAC1100257.61.723.70.518.6
T.Lance
#5
LAC2456.50.06.80.021.2

Offense Projections

O.Hampton
#8
LAC11458.316.22.62.974.50.6
K.Walker
#9
KC14134.221.03.04.8155.21.5
T.Kelce
#87
KC21950.167.95.67.868.00.4
L.McConkey
#15
LAC2360.058.94.46.558.90.4
R.Rice
#4
KC3300.666.25.67.566.80.5
K.Vidal
#28
LAC32634.18.51.01.542.60.3
Q.Johnston
#1
LAC4490.540.53.15.341.00.4
X.Worthy
#1
KC4345.638.33.45.743.90.3
O.Gadsden
#86
LAC5200.137.52.94.337.60.2
T.Thornton
#2
KC5160.041.11.93.341.10.3
K.Mitchell
#34
LAC6527.010.42.42.837.40.2
E.Johnson
#10
KC6414.018.51.31.332.50.0
N.Gray
#83
KC7740.017.81.82.417.80.1
D.Njoku
#83
LAC720.033.53.04.033.50.0
T.Harris
#9
LAC8210.526.12.13.226.60.1
B.Smith
#24
KC8197.99.31.41.917.20.1
N.Remigio
#81
KC9190.63.60.20.44.20.0
C.Kolar
#88
LAC930.026.33.03.326.30.0
J.Wiley
#12
KC1030.03.70.70.73.70.0
T.Wease
#82
LAC1010.016.01.01.016.00.0

Defense Projections

C.Jones
#95
KC11250.71.80.89.1
D.Phillips
#53
LAC111.02.01.010.0
G.Karlaftis
#56
KC2510.61.60.76.2
K.Mack
#52
LAC2430.81.41.112.0
B.Dupree
#48
LAC3100.81.30.88.3
N.Williams
#20
KC320.50.52.013.0
T.Tuipulotu
#45
LAC4340.81.51.18.4
D.Tranquill
#23
KC4240.30.80.94.5
C.Conner
#27
KC5140.20.60.74.4
J.Eboigbe
#92
LAC580.81.30.98.4
A.Gillotte
#97
KC680.21.00.41.0
C.Murphy
#50
LAC610.51.00.03.0
N.Bolton
#32
KC7440.10.60.93.8
D.James
#3
LAC7440.40.80.96.4
D.Henley
#0
LAC8140.30.60.96.0
J.Hicks
#21
KC850.10.40.62.5
T.Dye
#43
LAC980.30.40.93.6
C.McDonald
#44
KC910.00.01.01.0
J.Caldwell
#99
LAC1050.20.21.04.6