Matty The Bookie
Back to week 6

Published Pick

Tue, Oct 20, 12:15 AM UTC

WAS at SF

Pick
SF
Confidence
66.7%
Margin
+5.6
Odds
-200

Model Read

The model says SF wins about 67 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +5.6 margin is written from SF's side, so it means SF by about 5.6 points. Odds -200 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick SF: 66.7% win prob | margin +5.6 pts | confidence: 66.7% home | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-72 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-72; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05

Final Result

Graded Result

Final
WAS 17, SF 23
Pick
SF ML
Result
Win
SU
Win
ATS
Win
Margin Error
0.4
Moneyline Profit?
+0.24u

Player Props

Game Prop Board

J.Daniels
QB
WASQB pass yds187.4207.5-20.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
M.Evans
WR
SFReceiving yds55.170.5-15.4draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighInjury Review
R.White
RB
WASRush yds34.246.5-12.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFReceiving yds54.065.5-11.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
A.Williams
WR
WASReceiving yds31.220.5+10.7fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
S.Diggs
WR
WASReceiving yds49.641.5+8.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
T.McLaurin
WR
WASReceiving yds52.245.5+6.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFRush yds63.759.5+4.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFQB pass yds243.3246.5-3.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Black
RB
SFRush yds20.923.5-2.6fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumInjury Review
A.Ekeler
RB
WASRush yds17.519.5-2.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
B.Purdy
QB
SFQb Passing Tds1.62.5-0.9draftkingsO +130 / U -166HighOK
C.Okonkwo
TE
WASReceiving yds26.225.5+0.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
A.Ekeler
RB
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Williams
WR
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
K.Black
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Cowing
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
T.McLaurin
WR
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
J.Daniels
QB
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
R.White
RB
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Okonkwo
TE
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
D.Brown
WR
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
T.Burks
WR
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighInjury Review
S.Diggs
WR
WASThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFAnytime Td1.00.5+0.5hardrockO +190 / U -HighOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +900 / U -HighOK
L.McCaffrey
WR
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -LowOK
C.Okonkwo
TE
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5500 / U -HighOK
T.Burks
WR
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Williams
WR
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -MediumOK
K.Black
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Cowing
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -MediumOK
D.Brown
WR
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
D.Brown
WR
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -HighOK
L.McCaffrey
WR
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +11000 / U -HighOK
T.Burks
WR
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Williams
WR
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumOK
K.Black
RB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Cowing
WR
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -MediumOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
J.Daniels
QB
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
C.Okonkwo
TE
WASLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
T.McLaurin
WR
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1800 / U -HighInjury Review
S.Diggs
WR
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Daniels
QB
WASLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
J.Daniels
QB
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
D.Brown
WR
WASLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
S.Diggs
WR
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
R.White
RB
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Burks
WR
WASLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Williams
WR
WASLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -MediumOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
K.Black
RB
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -MediumInjury Review
T.McLaurin
WR
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Okonkwo
TE
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
A.Ekeler
RB
WASTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighInjury Review
R.White
RB
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +850 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighOK
S.Diggs
WR
WASLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1100 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Ekeler
RB
WASFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
R.White
RB
WASLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighInjury Review
T.McLaurin
WR
WASLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -3000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -800 / U -HighOK
M.Evans
WR
SFLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Ekeler
RB
WASLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1750 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Daniels
QB
WASQb Passing Tds1.11.5-0.4fanduelO +104 / U -138HighOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +300 / U -HighOK
M.Evans
WR
SFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +480 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Black
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +410 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Watkins
WR
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1000 / U -LowOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +440 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Watkins
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1000 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Brown
WR
WASWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1400 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Black
RB
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +410 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Cowing
WR
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +440 / U -MediumOK
L.McCaffrey
WR
WASWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3000 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Okonkwo
TE
WASWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +340 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Brown
WR
WASAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1400 / U -HighOK
L.McCaffrey
WR
WASAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
C.Okonkwo
TE
WASAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +340 / U -HighOK
A.Williams
WR
WASWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -MediumFallback Line
T.Burks
WR
WASWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +200 / U -HighOK
R.White
RB
WASRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Williams
WR
WASAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -MediumOK
T.Burks
WR
WASAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Purdy
QB
SFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +330 / U -HighOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +480 / U -HighOK
T.McLaurin
WR
WASWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Ekeler
RB
WASRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +330 / U -HighInjury Review
T.McLaurin
WR
WASAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
R.White
RB
WASAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
S.Diggs
WR
WASWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +220 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.70.5+0.2draftkingsO -125 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Ekeler
RB
WASAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +330 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Daniels
QB
WASAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +240 / U -HighOK
M.Evans
WR
SFAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO -125 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO +110 / U -HighFallback Line
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1hardrockO +190 / U -HighFallback Line
S.Diggs
WR
WASAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +220 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0draftkingsO +110 / U -HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

D.Samuel
WR
SFAnytime Td0.5---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Samuel
WR
SFFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Samuel
WR
SFLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Samuel
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Samuel
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Samuel
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Samuel
WR
SFReceiving yds45.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
F.Luvu
LB
WASSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFQb Passing Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFQB pass yds38.2---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Mariota
QB
WASAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Mariota
QB
WASFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Mariota
QB
WASLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Mariota
QB
WASQb Passing Tds1.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Mariota
QB
WASQB pass yds117.4---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Mariota
QB
WASThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Mariota
QB
WASTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
WASAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
WASFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
WASLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
WASRb Rushing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
WASRush yds51.7---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
WASThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
WASTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Reaves
DB
WASSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Martin
DB
WASSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
U.Stout
DB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Brown
WR
WASReceiving yds18.5---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lenoir
DB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Robinson
WR
SFAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFReceiving yds30.7---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Kinlaw
DL
WASSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFRush yds3.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Burks
WR
WASReceiving yds23.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Brown
DB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
L.McCaffrey
WR
WASLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.McCaffrey
WR
WASThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.McCaffrey
WR
WASReceiving yds9.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Sainristil
DB
WASSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
N.Bosa
DL
SFSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
C.West
DL
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Jean-Baptiste
LB
WASSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
K.White
DL
SFSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Armstrong
LB
WASSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Williams
DL
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Payne
DL
WASSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Tonges
TE
SFAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.4---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFReceiving yds22.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Bethune
LB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
F.Warner
LB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Mustapha
DB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFReceiving yds12.1---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Barber
DL
WASSacks0.2---O - / U -LowOK
A.Kaliakmanis
QB
WASAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
A.Kaliakmanis
QB
WASFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
A.Kaliakmanis
QB
WASLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
A.Kaliakmanis
QB
WASQb Passing Tds0.7---O - / U -LowOK
A.Kaliakmanis
QB
WASQB pass yds154.8---O - / U -LowOK
A.Kaliakmanis
QB
WASThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
A.Kaliakmanis
QB
WASTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFReceiving yds31.9---O - / U -LowOK
D.Wise
DL
WASSacks0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Review

Player Projections

QB Projections

B.Purdy
#13
SF154242.31.919.30.514.5
J.Daniels
#5
WAS127195.91.318.20.350.8
M.Jones
#10
SF212179.21.116.80.04.8
A.Kaliakmanis
#16
WAS21186.01.015.00.016.0
M.Mariota
#8
WAS316149.91.112.90.027.4

Offense Projections

C.McCaffrey
#23
SF15374.842.54.96.2117.31.0
S.Diggs
#3
WAS140.085.09.015.585.01.5
T.McLaurin
#17
WAS21110.764.54.67.365.20.4
D.Samuel
#19
SF28514.458.84.16.273.20.5
A.Ekeler
#30
WAS31627.426.92.63.254.20.3
M.Evans
#5
SF350.065.24.86.865.20.6
G.Kittle
#85
SF41290.564.24.86.464.70.4
J.Croskey-Merritt
#22
WAS42247.54.90.60.952.40.5
J.Tonges
#88
SF5100.029.33.44.629.30.5
R.White
#1
WAS5429.513.22.52.542.80.3
A.Williams
#14
WAS650.031.03.04.431.00.2
J.Watkins
#17
SF630.028.71.31.728.70.0
K.Black
#26
SF7527.21.00.20.428.20.0
C.Okonkwo
#85
WAS730.027.02.74.327.00.0
D.Brown
#6
WAS8490.817.81.42.418.60.1
D.Robinson
#11
SF8160.422.51.72.622.90.1
K.Juszczyk
#44
SF91241.717.41.72.319.10.2
T.Burks
#13
WAS9120.018.01.32.818.00.3
L.McCaffrey
#11
WAS10230.016.11.31.716.10.1
J.Cowing
#4
SF1081.111.10.61.412.20.0

Defense Projections

N.Bosa
#97
SF1750.92.21.212.5
R.Barber
#50
WAS111.01.01.012.0
F.Luvu
#4
WAS2160.71.31.18.8
C.West
#99
SF220.50.51.08.5
K.White
#56
SF350.31.20.44.9
J.Jean-Baptiste
#41
WAS330.71.00.74.7
D.Armstrong
#92
WAS4180.61.20.86.9
M.Williams
#98
SF440.30.81.05.8
D.Payne
#94
WAS5740.51.10.97.2
T.Bethune
#48
SF540.30.31.06.8
F.Warner
#54
SF6460.20.70.84.2
J.Reaves
#39
WAS680.30.50.92.8
J.Martin
#20
WAS780.10.50.52.4
U.Stout
#20
SF750.20.40.83.6
D.Lenoir
#2
SF8140.10.11.03.0
D.Wise
#91
WAS810.01.01.02.0
M.Mustapha
#6
SF960.00.20.81.7
J.Kinlaw
#99
WAS960.00.50.81.0
J.Brown
#27
SF1040.00.01.31.5
M.Sainristil
#0
WAS1020.00.01.02.5