Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC

CIN at BAL

Pick
CIN
Confidence
52.8%
Margin
-0.2
Odds
+112

Model Read

The home-team number says BAL wins about 47 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CIN, use the other side of that math: CIN wins about 53 out of 100 times. The -0.2 margin is written from BAL's side, so it means CIN by about 0.2 points. Odds +112 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CIN: 52.8% win prob | margin -0.2 pts | confidence: 52.8% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-4.5e+02; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.15, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.15, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-4.5e+02

Player Props

Game Prop Board

J.Burrow
QB
CINQB pass yds223.7260.5-36.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINReceiving yds24.512.5+12.0fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINReceiving yds74.765.5+9.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINReceiving yds72.980.5-7.6draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINReceiving yds30.022.5+7.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINRush yds26.620.5+6.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINRush yds52.147.5+4.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALRush yds89.185.5+3.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -HighOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
E.All
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
J.Lane
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -LowOK
S.Perine
RB
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1100 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
E.All
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -MediumOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -MediumOK
J.Lane
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -LowOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -LowOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
E.All
TE
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +5000 / U -MediumOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -MediumOK
J.Lane
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -LowOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -LowOK
S.Perine
RB
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1300 / U -HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -MediumOK
J.Chase
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
E.All
TE
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +5000 / U -MediumOK
J.Lane
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -LowOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -MediumOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -LowOK
J.Hill
RB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -MediumOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +650 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -800 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +250 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALAnytime Td0.90.5+0.4hardrockO +155 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +360 / U -HighOK
E.All
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1000 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Lane
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +380 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Meyers
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +380 / U -MediumFallback Line
E.All
TE
CINAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1000 / U -MediumOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +380 / U -MediumOK
J.Hill
RB
BALRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Lane
WR
BALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +380 / U -LowOK
J.Chase
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +800 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +295 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Tinsley
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Hill
RB
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALRb Rushing Tds0.80.5+0.3hardrockO +155 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Tinsley
WR
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +850 / U -MediumOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +850 / U -LowFallback Line
S.Perine
RB
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +295 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -LowFallback Line
J.Cuevas
TE
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +850 / U -LowOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Brown
RB
CINRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Hibner
TE
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -LowOK
D.Walker
WR
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +1400 / U -MediumOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +220 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Burrow
QB
CINQb Passing Tds1.31.5-0.2fanduelO -174 / U +130HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +1400 / U -MediumFallback Line
Z.Flowers
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +165 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Andrews
TE
BALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +220 / U -HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +100 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +360 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +165 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +360 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Higgins
WR
CINAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +155 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO +110 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Chase
WR
CINAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO +110 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +155 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

J.Burrow
QB
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Jackson
QB
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALQb Passing Tds1.7---O - / U -HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALQB pass yds242.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Flacco
QB
CINAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINQb Passing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINQB pass yds51.3---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALQb Passing Tds1.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALQB pass yds164.5---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALReceiving yds65.8---O - / U -HighOK
D.Knight
LB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALReceiving yds29.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALReceiving yds34.5---O - / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALRush yds16.3---O - / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Simpson
LB
BALSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Slaton
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Jones
DL
BALSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
A.Iosivas
WR
CINAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINReceiving yds17.6---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Jenkins
DL
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
K.Hamilton
DB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Hudson
TE
CINAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINReceiving yds16.6---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Battle
DB
CINSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Green
LB
BALSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
C.Moore
WR
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALReceiving yds19.6---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Hill
DB
CINSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Smith
LB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
K.Jenkins
DL
CINSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Martin
DB
BALSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Murphy
DL
CINSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Madubuike
DL
BALSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Johnson
DL
CINSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Robinson
LB
BALSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Hill
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Davis
DB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
S.Stewart
DL
CINSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALReceiving yds14.8---O - / U -MediumOK
E.All
TE
CINReceiving yds20.2---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINReceiving yds24.3---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Lane
WR
BALReceiving yds23.3---O - / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALReceiving yds25.7---O - / U -LowOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALReceiving yds23.3---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

L.Jackson
#8
BAL1120196.51.616.10.455.5
J.Burrow
#9
CIN182270.42.025.10.610.9
T.Huntley
#5
BAL227104.10.512.00.326.8
J.Flacco
#16
CIN29184.91.417.60.02.4

Offense Projections

J.Chase
#1
CIN1830.885.96.69.786.70.7
D.Henry
#22
BAL140101.210.21.11.3111.41.1
Z.Flowers
#4
BAL2554.066.45.07.270.40.3
C.Brown
#30
CIN24850.722.43.44.173.10.5
M.Andrews
#89
BAL31270.548.34.05.848.80.5
T.Higgins
#5
CIN3870.367.44.87.567.70.5
R.Bateman
#7
BAL4680.335.02.54.235.30.2
M.Gesicki
#88
CIN4320.035.33.34.435.30.3
J.Hill
#43
BAL58118.012.01.62.030.00.2
S.Perine
#34
CIN56223.111.21.62.034.40.2
D.Meyers
#81
CIN652.028.22.63.630.20.0
J.Lane
#6
BAL620.025.52.54.025.50.0
A.Iosivas
#80
CIN7430.324.42.03.424.70.3
M.Hibner
#88
BAL730.023.31.71.723.30.3
T.Hudson
#87
CIN8350.020.22.43.020.20.1
J.Cuevas
#85
BAL840.021.01.82.021.00.3
D.Walker
#81
BAL9150.015.50.71.315.50.3
E.All
#83
CIN9100.018.82.52.818.80.0
C.Moore
#17
BAL10410.714.01.22.214.70.1
M.Tinsley
#82
CIN1090.018.31.23.418.30.2

Defense Projections

K.Jenkins
#90
CIN170.61.10.76.4
K.Martin
#38
BAL111.01.01.028.0
M.Murphy
#99
CIN2150.61.10.74.9
D.Walker
#81
BAL211.01.00.00.0
J.Madubuike
#92
BAL3520.61.30.86.6
D.Knight
#44
CIN360.50.80.75.2
T.Robinson
#95
BAL4170.51.40.57.2
C.Johnson
#52
CIN470.41.30.45.1
T.Simpson
#32
BAL5120.40.90.96.5
T.Slaton
#98
CIN570.41.00.65.6
B.Hill
#92
CIN6530.41.20.54.6
T.Jones
#98
BAL6240.30.80.84.3
J.Jenkins
#94
BAL730.30.31.06.7
J.Davis
#35
CIN730.30.70.77.3
K.Hamilton
#14
BAL8280.30.70.97.0
S.Stewart
#94
CIN840.31.00.53.3
M.Green
#15
BAL9130.31.10.53.9
J.Battle
#27
CIN980.30.50.93.9
R.Smith
#0
BAL10210.20.61.03.4
D.Hill
#23
CIN10110.20.60.83.5