Matty The Bookie
Back to week 7

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 25, 1:30 PM UTC

PIT at NO

Pick
PIT
Confidence
65.1%
Margin
-2.1
Odds
+187

Model Read

The home-team number says NO wins about 35 out of 100 times. Because the pick is PIT, use the other side of that math: PIT wins about 65 out of 100 times. The -2.1 margin is written from NO's side, so it means PIT by about 2.1 points. Odds +187 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick PIT: 65.1% win prob | margin -2.1 pts | confidence: 65.1% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-7.3e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1; oppose indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-7.3e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1

Player Props

Game Prop Board

G.Bernard
WR
PITReceiving yds37.753.5-15.8fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NORush yds23.210.5+12.7fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQB pass yds238.2229.5+8.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOReceiving yds19.511.5+8.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NORush yds23.716.5+7.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
D.Metcalf
WR
PITReceiving yds53.358.5-5.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRush yds32.629.5+3.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
J.Johnson
TE
NOReceiving yds34.432.5+1.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITReceiving yds29.430.5-1.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITRush yds62.563.5-1.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Heyward
DL
PITSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +290 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Lance
WR
NOReceiving yds12.713.5-0.8fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
C.Jordan
LB
NOSacks0.21.0-0.8fanduelO +300 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NORush yds34.835.5-0.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Olave
WR
NOReceiving yds74.875.5-0.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Granderson
LB
NOSacks0.41.0-0.6fanduelO +158 / U -HighOK
Ni.Herbig
LB
PITSacks0.41.0-0.6fanduelO +178 / U -HighOK
A.Highsmith
LB
PITSacks0.41.0-0.6fanduelO +124 / U -MediumInjury Review
A.Kamara
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Watt
LB
PITSacks0.51.0-0.5fanduelO +104 / U -MediumInjury Review
G.Bernard
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -MediumOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +18000 / U -MediumOK
T.Shough
QB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
C.Olave
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
D.Vele
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
R.Tonyan
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
R.Tonyan
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +11000 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
K.Miller
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1100 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2500 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Lance
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -MediumOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -MediumOK
J.Warren
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
D.Vele
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
R.Tonyan
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -MediumOK
C.Olave
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1700 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -MediumOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighInjury Review
N.Fant
TE
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1100 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +750 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1400 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1200 / U -MediumOK
B.Lance
WR
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2500 / U -MediumOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -MediumOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1200 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -MediumOK
B.Lance
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
D.Washington
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
C.Olave
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
D.Vele
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Vele
WR
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1200 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -MediumOK
C.Olave
WR
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +750 / U -HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NOFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Kamara
RB
NOLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Metcalf
WR
PITFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1200 / U -HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3300 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Donaldson
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Donaldson
RB
NOAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -MediumOK
C.Young
LB
NOSacks0.61.0-0.4fanduelO -136 / U -MediumOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +270 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Rodgers
QB
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1100 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +300 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Tonyan
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Washington
TE
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +300 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +230 / U -MediumFallback Line
B.Lance
WR
NOAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -MediumOK
R.Tonyan
TE
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +230 / U -MediumOK
B.Lance
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -MediumFallback Line
K.Miller
RB
NOAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +160 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +270 / U -HighInjury Review
N.Fant
TE
NOAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO -105 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Vele
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +295 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Vele
WR
NOAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +295 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Johnson
TE
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +310 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Johnson
TE
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +310 / U -HighOK
C.Olave
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +190 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Warren
RB
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -105 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITReceiving yds24.724.5+0.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +160 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Shough
QB
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +420 / U -MediumOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +180 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +250 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Metcalf
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +180 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Olave
WR
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +190 / U -HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +330 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +250 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOQb Passing Tds1.41.5-0.1fanduelO +140 / U -188MediumOK
T.Shough
QB
NOQB pass yds228.5228.5+0.0draftkingsO -112 / U -112MediumOK
D.Vele
WR
NOReceiving yds41.541.5-0.0draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NOAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0fanduelO +330 / U -HighInjury Review

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

M.Rudolph
QB
PITAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITQb Passing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITQB pass yds40.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Etienne
RB
NOAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NORush yds42.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Ramsey
DB
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Rumph
LB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Pittman
WR
PITAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITReceiving yds33.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
N.Shepherd
DL
NOSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
K.Benton
DL
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Reid
DB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sawyer
LB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITReceiving yds15.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
P.Werner
LB
NOSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
R.Tonyan
TE
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Tonyan
TE
PITReceiving yds15.7---O - / U -HighOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOQb Passing Tds0.6---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOQB pass yds138.2---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Harmon
DL
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
I.Stalbird
LB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Howden
DB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Wilson
WR
PITAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITReceiving yds28.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOReceiving yds19.5---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
B.Echols
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
B.Lance
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Porter
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
K.Boyd
DL
NOSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

A.Rodgers
#8
PIT122218.61.621.40.03.5
T.Shough
#6
NO117295.91.829.10.021.3
M.Rudolph
#2
PIT227125.70.812.20.43.9
S.Rattler
#2
NO216181.40.819.00.319.6

Offense Projections

A.Kamara
#41
NO113156.838.74.86.195.50.7
J.Warren
#30
PIT17044.221.22.73.365.40.2
C.Olave
#12
NO2610.178.76.09.378.70.4
D.Metcalf
#4
PIT2211.155.64.27.256.70.4
G.Bernard
#17
PIT350.845.44.86.446.20.2
T.Etienne
#3
NO3342.717.03.74.359.70.0
D.Vele
#14
NO4150.054.24.97.554.20.4
R.Dowdle
#13
PIT4325.712.32.33.738.00.0
P.Freiermuth
#88
PIT5800.135.73.54.835.80.3
K.Miller
#5
NO52528.18.41.21.536.50.2
J.Johnson
#83
NO6840.035.63.24.635.60.3
M.Pittman
#11
PIT630.029.72.34.029.70.0
R.Wilson
#14
PIT7140.025.31.93.325.30.3
N.Fant
#87
NO750.027.83.45.227.81.2
D.Washington
#80
PIT8400.019.51.82.519.50.1
K.Austin
#81
NO8140.621.31.83.321.90.1
B.Skowronek
#15
PIT9230.07.40.50.77.40.1
B.Lance
#18
NO960.020.52.05.520.50.2
C.Donaldson
#43
NO10618.32.21.21.720.50.0
R.Tonyan
#85
PIT1010.04.02.02.04.00.0

Defense Projections

C.Jordan
#94
NO11680.81.51.010.6
T.Watt
#90
PIT11141.02.11.212.3
A.Highsmith
#56
PIT2600.81.51.110.0
C.Young
#99
NO2210.71.70.911.1
D.Harmon
#99
PIT340.81.30.33.3
I.Stalbird
#44
NO330.71.00.710.0
C.Granderson
#96
NO4530.71.31.09.1
J.Ramsey
#5
PIT440.81.01.012.3
C.Heyward
#97
PIT51490.61.40.98.3
C.Rumph
#58
NO550.40.80.65.0
Ni.Herbig
#51
PIT6260.61.20.910.1
N.Shepherd
#93
NO6210.41.30.55.5
K.Benton
#95
PIT7200.41.40.56.0
J.Howden
#31
NO740.30.30.54.0
J.Sawyer
#33
PIT840.31.50.85.8
J.Reid
#21
NO830.20.30.72.8
P.Werner
#20
NO9190.10.30.92.4
B.Echols
#26
PIT940.30.50.84.5
J.Porter
#25
PIT1040.30.00.82.3
K.Boyd
#97
NO1010.01.00.00.0