Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC

SF at ATL

Pick
SF
Confidence
66.7%
Margin
-1.8
Odds
+200

Model Read

The home-team number says ATL wins about 33 out of 100 times. Because the pick is SF, use the other side of that math: SF wins about 67 out of 100 times. The -1.8 margin is written from ATL's side, so it means SF by about 1.8 points. Odds +200 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick SF: 66.7% win prob | margin -1.8 pts | confidence: 66.7% away | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+1e+03, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+1e+03, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1; oppose none

Player Props

Game Prop Board

A.Hooper
TE
ATLReceiving yds15.94.5+11.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFRush yds69.660.5+9.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLReceiving yds38.429.5+8.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLReceiving yds13.85.5+8.3draftkingsO -119 / U -106MediumOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFReceiving yds61.869.5-7.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLReceiving yds75.182.5-7.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLReceiving yds12.27.5+4.7fanduelO -108 / U -120HighInjury Review
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLRush yds91.887.5+4.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
B.Purdy
QB
SFQB pass yds244.4240.5+3.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLQB pass yds224.3227.5-3.2fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLReceiving yds32.334.5-2.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Black
RB
SFRush yds28.329.5-1.2fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFQb Passing Tds2.31.5+0.8draftkingsO -136 / U +107HighOK
K.Black
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -MediumOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -HighOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +750 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Dotson
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -LowOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1000 / U -HighOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -MediumOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighOK
K.Black
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -MediumOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -MediumOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Dotson
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -LowOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +12000 / U -MediumOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +850 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1000 / U -HighOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Hooper
TE
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Penix
QB
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
K.Black
RB
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -MediumOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -MediumOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
K.Black
RB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +330 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2200 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -700 / U -HighInjury Review
D.London
WR
ATLLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +700 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -700 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +180 / U -HighInjury Review
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFAnytime Td0.90.5+0.4draftkingsO -260 / U -HighOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +360 / U -HighOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Blair
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Woerner
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighFallback Line
Z.Branch
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Watkins
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -LowFallback Line
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Black
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +380 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Watkins
WR
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -LowOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -MediumOK
K.Black
RB
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +380 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +220 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +850 / U -MediumOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -HighInjury Review
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds1.21.5-0.3fanduelO +118 / U -158MediumOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Purdy
QB
SFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +310 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -HighFallback Line
D.London
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +135 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +135 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Dotson
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +400 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +280 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +280 / U -HighFallback Line
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLRb Rushing Tds0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +210 / U -HighInjury Review
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO -260 / U -HighFallback Line
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +210 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0fanduelO +120 / U -HighOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.50.5-0.0fanduelO +120 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

C.Rush
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds0.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLQB pass yds125.8---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
B.Dorlus
DL
ATLSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
D.Samuel
WR
SFAnytime Td0.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Samuel
WR
SFFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Samuel
WR
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Samuel
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Samuel
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Samuel
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Samuel
WR
SFReceiving yds47.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Jones
QB
SFAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFQb Passing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFQB pass yds51.3---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Evans
WR
SFAnytime Td0.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.7---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Evans
WR
SFReceiving yds55.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds1.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLQB pass yds84.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLRb Rushing Tds0.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLRush yds28.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.Hooper
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Bates
DB
ATLSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
U.Stout
DB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lenoir
DB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Robinson
WR
SFAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFReceiving yds31.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Woerner
TE
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLReceiving yds11.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFRush yds3.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brown
DB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
N.Bosa
DL
SFSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
Z.Harrison
DL
ATLSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
C.West
DL
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
B.Bowman
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
K.White
DL
SFSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
L.London
DL
ATLSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Williams
DL
SFSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Deablo
LB
ATLSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Bethune
LB
SFSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
F.Warner
LB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Tonges
TE
SFAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFReceiving yds22.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
A.Terrell
DB
ATLSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
M.Hughes
DB
ATLSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Mustapha
DB
SFSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLReceiving yds8.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Cowing
WR
SFReceiving yds11.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds0.2---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLQB pass yds105.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFReceiving yds31.4---O - / U -LowOK
J.Robinson
DB
ATLSacks0.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

B.Purdy
#13
SF155242.71.819.30.514.8
C.Rush
#13
ATL12229.01.022.00.020.0
M.Penix
#9
ATL218218.01.117.40.24.7
M.Jones
#10
SF212179.21.116.80.04.8
J.Strand
#18
ATL3159.00.08.00.016.0
T.Tagovailoa
#1
ATL4134.00.02.00.00.0

Offense Projections

Bi.Robinson
#7
ATL15788.535.14.15.4123.60.8
C.McCaffrey
#23
SF15474.642.75.06.3117.31.0
D.Samuel
#19
SF28514.458.84.16.273.20.5
D.London
#5
ATL2680.171.85.38.371.90.3
J.Dotson
#4
ATL360.055.22.85.855.20.5
M.Evans
#5
SF360.070.04.56.570.00.5
G.Kittle
#85
SF41300.564.24.86.564.70.4
K.Pitts
#8
ATL4840.044.63.65.644.60.2
Br.Robinson
#15
ATL5635.25.00.81.040.20.7
K.Black
#26
SF5628.31.30.30.529.70.0
A.Hooper
#81
ATL6600.038.83.84.938.80.3
J.Tonges
#88
SF6100.029.33.44.629.30.5
O.Zaccheaus
#14
ATL7500.227.22.03.427.40.2
J.Watkins
#17
SF740.027.01.31.527.00.0
D.Robinson
#11
SF8160.422.51.72.622.90.1
Z.Branch
#17
ATL860.014.32.32.714.30.0
K.Juszczyk
#44
SF91251.717.41.72.319.10.2
C.Woerner
#89
ATL9180.05.90.91.55.90.0
J.Cowing
#4
SF1091.09.90.61.210.90.0
C.Blair
#19
ATL1080.03.60.41.03.60.0

Defense Projections

N.Bosa
#97
SF1750.92.21.212.5
Z.Harrison
#96
ATL1100.81.11.27.2
B.Dorlus
#54
ATL2110.81.01.07.6
C.West
#99
SF220.50.51.08.5
K.White
#56
SF350.31.20.44.9
B.Bowman
#33
ATL320.81.00.510.0
L.London
#94
ATL480.60.51.16.9
M.Williams
#98
SF440.30.81.05.8
D.Deablo
#0
ATL550.20.41.02.4
T.Bethune
#48
SF540.30.31.06.8
F.Warner
#54
SF6460.20.70.84.2
J.Bates
#3
ATL680.10.50.82.0
A.Terrell
#24
ATL7140.10.11.02.1
U.Stout
#20
SF750.20.40.83.6
D.Lenoir
#2
SF8140.10.11.03.0
M.Hughes
#21
ATL860.00.01.32.0
M.Mustapha
#6
SF960.00.20.81.7
J.Robinson
#34
ATL910.00.00.00.0
J.Brown
#27
SF1040.00.01.31.5