Matty The Bookie
Back to week 7

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC

NYG at HOU

Pick
HOU
Confidence
65.4%
Margin
+7.2
Odds
-189

Model Read

The model says HOU wins about 65 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +7.2 margin is written from HOU's side, so it means HOU by about 7.2 points. Odds -189 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick HOU: 65.4% win prob | margin +7.2 pts | confidence: 65.4% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+64, indoor_diff=+1; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+64, indoor_diff=+1

Player Props

Game Prop Board

J.McCarthy
QB
NYGQB pass yds141.6200.5-58.9fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
C.Skattebo
RB
NYGRush yds61.031.5+29.5draftkingsO -112 / U -112MediumOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUReceiving yds30.011.5+18.5draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
J.Noel
WR
HOUReceiving yds45.727.5+18.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUQB pass yds238.9255.5-16.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
M.Nabers
WR
NYGReceiving yds84.368.5+15.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOURush yds51.761.5-9.8draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
M.Harrison
WR
HOUReceiving yds37.729.5+8.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Schultz
TE
HOUReceiving yds39.231.5+7.7draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighInjury Review
I.Likely
TE
NYGReceiving yds51.847.5+4.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Mooney
WR
NYGReceiving yds23.719.5+4.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
M.Fields
WR
NYGReceiving yds24.720.5+4.2fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
T.Tracy
RB
NYGRush yds20.223.5-3.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUReceiving yds71.668.5+3.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +19000 / U -MediumOK
M.Fields
WR
NYGThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -MediumOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
W.Marks
RB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.Schultz
TE
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Noel
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +18000 / U -HighOK
M.Harrison
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +11000 / U -HighOK
M.Nabers
WR
NYGThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
I.Likely
TE
NYGThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +12000 / U -HighOK
T.Tracy
RB
NYGThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +15000 / U -HighOK
D.Singletary
RB
NYGThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.Mooney
WR
NYGThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -MediumOK
M.Klein
TE
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
M.Fields
WR
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -MediumOK
D.Mooney
WR
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
J.Noel
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
D.Singletary
RB
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
M.Harrison
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
T.Tracy
RB
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
M.Klein
TE
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -LowOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +950 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Johnson
TE
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Schultz
TE
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1900 / U -HighInjury Review
I.Likely
TE
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2500 / U -HighOK
C.Skattebo
RB
NYGThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +14000 / U -MediumOK
W.Marks
RB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
D.Singletary
RB
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
M.Harrison
WR
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -MediumOK
D.Mooney
WR
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
M.Fields
WR
NYGLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
I.Likely
TE
NYGLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
D.Schultz
TE
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1100 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Noel
WR
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
D.Mooney
WR
NYGLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -HighOK
D.Schultz
TE
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +950 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Skattebo
RB
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -MediumOK
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -MediumOK
M.Fields
WR
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
J.Noel
WR
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +600 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Harrison
WR
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
C.Skattebo
RB
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
T.Johnson
TE
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Singletary
RB
NYGLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Tracy
RB
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
C.Skattebo
RB
NYGLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -MediumOK
T.Tracy
RB
NYGLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -800 / U -HighOK
M.Nabers
WR
NYGLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
I.Likely
TE
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
M.Nabers
WR
NYGFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOUFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +400 / U -HighOK
M.Nabers
WR
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2500 / U -HighOK
M.Klein
TE
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2200 / U -LowFallback Line
M.Klein
TE
HOUAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2200 / U -LowOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
D.Mooney
WR
NYGWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Mooney
WR
NYGAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
D.Schultz
TE
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +210 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Fields
WR
NYGWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +800 / U -MediumFallback Line
M.Fields
WR
NYGAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +800 / U -MediumOK
T.Tracy
RB
NYGRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Boutte
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Schultz
TE
HOUAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +210 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Boutte
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
TE
NYGAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +850 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Johnson
TE
NYGWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +850 / U -HighInjury Review
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -MediumOK
J.Noel
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Noel
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
D.Singletary
RB
NYGAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
M.Nabers
WR
NYGWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +250 / U -HighFallback Line
I.Likely
TE
NYGWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +255 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Harrison
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +260 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Harrison
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +260 / U -HighOK
T.Tracy
RB
NYGAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +400 / U -HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOURb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -105 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Singletary
RB
NYGRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +700 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Skattebo
RB
NYGAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +360 / U -MediumOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +130 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Nabers
WR
NYGAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +250 / U -HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOUAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO -105 / U -HighOK
C.Skattebo
RB
NYGRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +360 / U -MediumFallback Line
N.Collins
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +130 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Stroud
QB
HOUQb Passing Tds1.41.5-0.1draftkingsO -165 / U +129HighOK
I.Likely
TE
NYGAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +255 / U -HighOK
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGQb Passing Tds0.50.5+0.0draftkingsO -211 / U +164MediumOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

B.Burns
LB
NYGSacks0.6---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Hunter
DL
HOUSacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
D.Montgomery
RB
HOUAnytime Td0.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOUFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOULast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOURb Rushing Tds0.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOURush yds25.8---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Winston
QB
NYGAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Winston
QB
NYGFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Winston
QB
NYGLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Winston
QB
NYGQb Passing Tds1.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Winston
QB
NYGQB pass yds204.5---O - / U -HighOK
J.Winston
QB
NYGThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Winston
QB
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
O.Beckham
WR
NYGAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
O.Beckham
WR
NYGFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
O.Beckham
WR
NYGLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
O.Beckham
WR
NYGThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
O.Beckham
WR
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
O.Beckham
WR
NYGWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
O.Beckham
WR
NYGReceiving yds19.3---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
D.Mills
QB
HOUAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOULast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUQb Passing Tds0.5---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUQB pass yds58.8---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
W.Anderson
DL
HOUSacks0.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Rankins
DL
HOUSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
A.Carter
LB
NYGSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Togiai
DL
HOUSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
A.Al-Shaair
LB
HOUSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Slayton
WR
NYGAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
D.Slayton
WR
NYGFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
D.Slayton
WR
NYGLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
D.Slayton
WR
NYGThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
D.Slayton
WR
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
D.Slayton
WR
NYGWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
D.Slayton
WR
NYGReceiving yds30.9---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
D.Singletary
RB
NYGRush yds21.3---O - / U -HighOK
A.Phillips
DB
NYGSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Stingley
DB
HOUSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
TE
NYGLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Johnson
TE
NYGThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Johnson
TE
NYGReceiving yds23.7---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Lassiter
DB
HOUSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Alexander
DL
NYGSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Dart
QB
NYGAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Dart
QB
NYGFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Dart
QB
NYGLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Dart
QB
NYGQb Passing Tds1.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Dart
QB
NYGQB pass yds67.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Dart
QB
NYGThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Dart
QB
NYGTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Thibodeaux
LB
NYGSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Jordan
RB
HOUAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Jordan
RB
HOUFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Jordan
RB
HOULast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Jordan
RB
HOURb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Jordan
RB
HOURush yds54.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Jordan
RB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Jordan
RB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
M.Edwards
DL
HOUSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
Z.Barnes
LB
NYGSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Golston
DL
NYGSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
H.To'oTo'o
LB
HOUSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Banks
DB
NYGSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Pitre
DB
HOUSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Wayne
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.Wayne
WR
HOUFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.Wayne
WR
HOULast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.Wayne
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.Wayne
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.Wayne
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.Wayne
WR
HOUReceiving yds17.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
T.Nubin
DB
NYGSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
M.McFadden
LB
NYGSacks0.1---O - / U -LowOK
M.Klein
TE
HOULast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
M.Klein
TE
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
M.Klein
TE
HOUReceiving yds16.1---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

C.Stroud
#7
HOU152242.11.420.60.313.0
J.Winston
#19
NYG18190.51.115.90.08.6
D.Mills
#10
HOU243164.70.915.90.65.4
J.Dart
#6
NYG216157.61.115.10.033.8
J.McCarthy
#18
NYG32121.50.55.50.014.0

Offense Projections

O.Beckham
#9
NYG1601.291.36.510.492.50.7
D.Montgomery
#32
HOU1553.026.82.82.879.81.2
N.Collins
#12
HOU2700.669.54.67.270.10.4
M.Nabers
#1
NYG2250.178.86.710.678.80.4
W.Marks
#4
HOU32246.016.92.53.362.90.4
C.Skattebo
#44
NYG31354.222.02.63.476.20.6
I.Likely
#9
NYG460.063.86.59.863.80.8
J.Jordan
#25
HOU4547.28.21.61.655.40.2
T.Tracy
#29
NYG53842.616.42.02.859.00.3
K.Boutte
#14
HOU560.047.33.85.747.30.0
D.Slayton
#11
NYG61030.043.12.95.143.10.2
D.Schultz
#86
HOU6550.044.34.46.244.30.2
D.Singletary
#26
NYG73526.18.91.31.435.00.3
J.Noel
#13
HOU7232.735.32.23.038.00.2
T.Johnson
#84
NYG8290.031.52.74.331.50.2
M.Harrison
#18
HOU810.034.03.04.034.00.0
M.Fields
#88
NYG960.027.52.04.227.50.2
M.Klein
#83
HOU910.032.02.02.032.00.0
D.Mooney
#17
NYG1064.818.21.33.223.00.0
J.Wayne
#86
HOU1050.030.02.05.230.00.0

Defense Projections

B.Burns
#0
NYG1290.91.71.315.5
D.Hunter
#55
HOU1271.01.71.215.8
W.Anderson
#51
HOU2420.71.51.112.2
D.Alexander
#91
NYG250.71.20.810.5
K.Thibodeaux
#5
NYG3380.61.40.89.3
S.Rankins
#98
HOU3150.61.30.99.5
M.Edwards
#97
HOU4110.41.10.58.1
Z.Barnes
#46
NYG420.50.51.05.5
A.Carter
#3
NYG5110.42.10.65.0
T.Togiai
#72
HOU5100.30.70.85.2
A.Al-Shaair
#0
HOU690.21.00.92.1
C.Golston
#57
NYG630.30.31.78.3
M.McFadden
#41
NYG7220.30.71.24.7
H.To'oTo'o
#39
HOU7190.20.30.94.3
A.Phillips
#22
NYG8130.10.11.13.2
D.Stingley
#24
HOU860.20.01.02.0
J.Pitre
#5
HOU9190.10.31.13.4
D.Banks
#2
NYG940.00.01.31.8
T.Nubin
#27
NYG10100.00.01.12.5
K.Lassiter
#3
HOU1080.00.11.44.1