Matty The Bookie
Back to week 8

Published Pick

Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC

BAL at BUF

Pick
BUF
Confidence
64.0%
Margin
+5.4
Odds
-178

Model Read

The model says BUF wins about 64 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +5.4 margin is written from BUF's side, so it means BUF by about 5.4 points. Odds -178 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick BUF: 64.0% win prob | margin +5.4 pts | confidence: 64.0% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+5.7e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+5.7e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2

Player Props

Game Prop Board

Z.Flowers
WR
BALReceiving yds61.181.5-20.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Palmer
WR
BUFReceiving yds32.412.5+19.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
L.Jackson
QB
BALQB pass yds220.0237.5-17.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
J.Cook
RB
BUFRush yds70.786.5-15.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALReceiving yds25.510.5+15.0fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFReceiving yds43.929.5+14.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALReceiving yds15.84.5+11.3fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFReceiving yds16.67.5+9.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Moore
WR
BUFReceiving yds48.554.5-6.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
D.Henry
RB
BALRush yds76.782.5-5.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALRush yds15.610.5+5.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALReceiving yds30.226.5+3.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFQB pass yds254.8251.5+3.3draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALReceiving yds27.830.5-2.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Lane
WR
BALReceiving yds25.027.5-2.5fanduelO -114 / U -114LowOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFReceiving yds41.139.5+1.6draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFReceiving yds45.346.5-1.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFRush yds10.79.5+1.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1800 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1900 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1100 / U -HighOK
J.Lane
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -LowOK
D.Moore
WR
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Flowers
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -MediumOK
J.Lane
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3300 / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -LowOK
J.Palmer
WR
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1900 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
J.Palmer
WR
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -MediumOK
J.Lane
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -LowOK
L.Jackson
QB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Moore
WR
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1800 / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Flowers
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Walker
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -MediumOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1200 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -MediumOK
J.Lane
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -LowOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
L.Jackson
QB
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Bateman
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -MediumOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1200 / U -HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Andrews
TE
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +525 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +350 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2250 / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -850 / U -HighOK
J.Palmer
WR
BUFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
J.Allen
QB
BUFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +370 / U -HighOK
J.Lane
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +330 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Henry
RB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +230 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Davis
RB
BUFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +900 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Lane
WR
BALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +330 / U -LowOK
J.Hill
RB
BALRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Hill
RB
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1400 / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1400 / U -MediumFallback Line
T.Johnson
RB
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +650 / U -HighOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -LowFallback Line
J.Cuevas
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1000 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Allen
QB
BUFQb Passing Tds1.81.5+0.3fanduelO -136 / U +102HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +230 / U -HighOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1000 / U -MediumOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +210 / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Palmer
WR
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
K.Shakir
WR
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +230 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Palmer
WR
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Bateman
WR
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +380 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +380 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Hibner
TE
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -LowOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +225 / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +900 / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +210 / U -HighFallback Line
L.Jackson
QB
BALQb Passing Tds1.81.5+0.3draftkingsO -112 / U -113HighInjury Review
L.Jackson
QB
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +290 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Henry
RB
BALAnytime Td0.80.5+0.3hardrockO +170 / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Moore
WR
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO -300 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Walker
WR
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumFallback Line
K.Coleman
WR
BUFWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +425 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Andrews
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +225 / U -HighFallback Line
Z.Flowers
WR
BALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +160 / U -HighOK
K.Coleman
WR
BUFAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
J.Cook
RB
BUFAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO -165 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +160 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Cook
RB
BUFRb Rushing Tds0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO -165 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Allen
QB
BUFAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0draftkingsO -170 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALRb Rushing Tds0.50.5+0.0hardrockO +170 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

T.Huntley
QB
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALQb Passing Tds1.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALQB pass yds164.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Rousseau
LB
BUFSacks0.5---O - / U -HighOK
T.Simpson
LB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
RB
BUFRush yds11.3---O - / U -HighOK
T.Jones
DL
BALSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
C.Bishop
DB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Jenkins
DL
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
R.Davis
RB
BUFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Knox
TE
BUFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Hamilton
DB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Walker
DL
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Palmer
WR
BUFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Green
LB
BALSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
C.Moore
WR
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALReceiving yds19.9---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Smith
LB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Martin
DB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Sanders
DL
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hoecht
LB
BUFSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Madubuike
DL
BALSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Oliver
DL
BUFSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Robinson
LB
BALSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Solomon
LB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bernard
LB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Benford
DB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Andreessen
LB
BUFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Hawes
TE
BUFReceiving yds10.9---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALReceiving yds18.9---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Allen
#17
BUF1132247.11.821.30.638.5
L.Jackson
#8
BAL1120196.51.616.10.455.5
T.Huntley
#5
BAL228111.10.512.40.326.3

Offense Projections

D.Henry
#22
BAL14199.910.01.11.3109.91.0
D.Moore
#2
BUF142.589.06.010.091.50.5
J.Cook
#4
BUF27267.917.51.92.585.40.7
Z.Flowers
#4
BAL2563.967.75.17.271.60.3
M.Andrews
#89
BAL31280.548.14.05.848.60.5
D.Kincaid
#86
BUF3470.048.44.15.648.40.2
R.Bateman
#7
BAL4690.335.02.54.235.20.2
K.Coleman
#0
BUF4310.347.13.25.047.40.4
J.Hill
#43
BAL58217.912.11.62.130.00.2
K.Shakir
#10
BUF5630.344.13.75.044.40.2
T.Johnson
#26
BUF64512.318.31.51.830.60.2
J.Lane
#6
BAL630.025.32.74.325.30.0
R.Davis
#7
BUF73819.38.40.80.927.70.2
J.Cuevas
#85
BAL750.023.81.82.223.80.2
D.Knox
#88
BUF81020.127.12.43.627.10.3
M.Hibner
#88
BAL840.017.51.31.317.50.3
J.Palmer
#5
BUF9160.026.21.63.026.20.1
D.Walker
#81
BAL9150.015.50.71.315.50.3
C.Moore
#17
BAL10410.714.01.22.214.70.1
J.Hawes
#85
BUF10160.011.71.01.311.70.2

Defense Projections

K.Martin
#38
BAL111.01.01.028.0
T.Sanders
#98
BUF111.01.01.014.0
M.Hoecht
#55
BUF221.01.00.57.3
D.Walker
#81
BAL211.01.00.00.0
G.Rousseau
#15
BUF3590.51.50.97.3
J.Madubuike
#92
BAL3520.61.30.86.6
E.Oliver
#91
BUF4630.51.20.97.8
T.Robinson
#95
BAL4170.51.40.57.2
T.Simpson
#32
BAL5120.40.90.96.5
J.Solomon
#56
BUF580.41.00.58.3
T.Jones
#98
BAL6240.30.80.84.3
T.Bernard
#8
BUF6210.40.71.15.6
C.Bishop
#24
BUF760.30.30.85.0
J.Jenkins
#94
BAL730.30.31.06.7
K.Hamilton
#14
BAL8280.30.70.97.0
C.Benford
#47
BUF8110.30.31.06.6
M.Green
#15
BAL9130.31.10.53.9
D.Walker
#96
BUF970.10.61.12.0
R.Smith
#0
BAL10210.20.61.03.4
J.Andreessen
#44
BUF1040.00.80.80.8