Matty The Bookie
Back to week 8

Published Pick

Tue, Nov 3, 1:15 AM UTC

CHI at SEA

Pick
CHI
Confidence
51.4%
Margin
-0.3
Odds
+106

Model Read

The home-team number says SEA wins about 49 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CHI, use the other side of that math: CHI wins about 51 out of 100 times. The -0.3 margin is written from SEA's side, so it means CHI by about 0.3 points. Odds +106 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CHI: 51.4% win prob | margin -0.3 pts | confidence: 51.4% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-5.8e+02; oppose crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.4, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.15 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.4, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.15; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-5.8e+02

Player Props

Game Prop Board

C.Williams
QB
CHIQB pass yds201.0227.5-26.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAQB pass yds221.9233.5-11.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
L.Burden
WR
CHIReceiving yds61.050.5+10.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAReceiving yds93.199.5-6.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
R.Odunze
WR
CHIReceiving yds47.942.5+5.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Raymond
WR
CHIReceiving yds26.922.5+4.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Loveland
TE
CHIReceiving yds40.542.5-2.0draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
C.Williams
QB
CHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
D.Swift
RB
CHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3300 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
R.Odunze
WR
CHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
L.Burden
WR
CHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
C.Loveland
TE
CHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
C.Williams
QB
CHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
S.Roush
TE
CHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -MediumOK
J.Walker
WR
CHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -HighOK
L.Burden
WR
CHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Raymond
WR
CHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1900 / U -HighOK
S.Roush
TE
CHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
J.Walker
WR
CHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -MediumOK
D.Swift
RB
CHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +600 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +600 / U -HighOK
R.Odunze
WR
CHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2500 / U -HighOK
C.Loveland
TE
CHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Raymond
WR
CHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
C.Williams
QB
CHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
K.Raymond
WR
CHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
R.Odunze
WR
CHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
L.Burden
WR
CHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1100 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2250 / U -MediumOK
S.Roush
TE
CHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -MediumOK
R.Odunze
WR
CHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
L.Burden
WR
CHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
C.Loveland
TE
CHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
C.Williams
QB
CHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -MediumOK
T.Horton
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -MediumOK
C.Loveland
TE
CHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +525 / U -HighOK
D.Swift
RB
CHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1100 / U -HighOK
D.Swift
RB
CHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
K.Raymond
WR
CHIWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
S.Roush
TE
CHIWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +800 / U -MediumFallback Line
S.Roush
TE
CHIAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +800 / U -MediumOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
C.Williams
QB
CHIQb Passing Tds1.11.5-0.4fanduelO +136 / U -182HighOK
K.Raymond
WR
CHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
R.Odunze
WR
CHIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +250 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Williams
QB
CHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +215 / U -HighFallback Line
L.Burden
WR
CHIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +240 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Odunze
WR
CHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +250 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +270 / U -HighOK
L.Burden
WR
CHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +240 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +270 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Walker
WR
CHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +2000 / U -MediumOK
J.Walker
WR
CHIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +2000 / U -MediumFallback Line
A.Barner
TE
SEAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +215 / U -HighOK
C.Loveland
TE
CHIWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +240 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Horton
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +425 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Loveland
TE
CHIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +240 / U -HighOK
D.Swift
RB
CHIRb Rushing Tds0.70.5+0.2draftkingsO -110 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO -110 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Horton
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +425 / U -MediumOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0fanduelO -110 / U -HighOK
D.Swift
RB
CHIAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO -110 / U -HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

D.Swift
RB
CHIRush yds56.7---O - / U -HighOK
M.Sweat
DL
CHISacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
C.Keenum
QB
CHIAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Keenum
QB
CHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Keenum
QB
CHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Keenum
QB
CHIQb Passing Tds1.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Keenum
QB
CHIQB pass yds152.3---O - / U -HighOK
C.Keenum
QB
CHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Keenum
QB
CHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Jackson
LB
CHISacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lock
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds1.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEAQB pass yds177.9---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Wilson
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEARush yds55.2---O - / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Monangai
RB
CHIAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Monangai
RB
CHIFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Monangai
RB
CHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Monangai
RB
CHIRb Rushing Tds0.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Monangai
RB
CHIRush yds60.8---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Monangai
RB
CHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Monangai
RB
CHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
L.Williams
DL
SEASacks0.5---O - / U -HighOK
B.Murphy
DL
SEASacks0.5---O - / U -HighOK
K.Raymond
WR
CHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEAFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEARush yds36.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Charbonnet
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Kupp
WR
SEAReceiving yds35.9---O - / U -HighOK
U.Nwosu
LB
SEASacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lawrence
LB
SEASacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Shaheed
WR
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Shaheed
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAReceiving yds31.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.Barner
TE
SEAReceiving yds28.3---O - / U -HighOK
C.Kmet
TE
CHIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Kmet
TE
CHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Kmet
TE
CHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Kmet
TE
CHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Kmet
TE
CHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Kmet
TE
CHIWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Kmet
TE
CHIReceiving yds21.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Thomas
LB
SEASacks0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Johnson
RB
CHIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
R.Johnson
RB
CHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Johnson
RB
CHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Johnson
RB
CHIRb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
R.Johnson
RB
CHIRush yds20.2---O - / U -HighOK
R.Johnson
RB
CHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Johnson
RB
CHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Hall
LB
SEASacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.O'Connell
LB
SEASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Booker
DL
CHISacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bagent
QB
CHIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bagent
QB
CHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bagent
QB
CHILast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bagent
QB
CHIQb Passing Tds0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bagent
QB
CHIQB pass yds120.2---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bagent
QB
CHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Bagent
QB
CHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Reed
DL
SEASacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Edwards
LB
CHISacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Odeyingbo
DL
CHISacks0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
G.Jarrett
DL
CHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Gordon
DB
CHISacks0.5---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Hardy
DL
CHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAReceiving yds18.5---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Okada
DB
SEASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEARush yds14.9---O - / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Roush
TE
CHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Roush
TE
CHIReceiving yds12.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Knight
LB
SEASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Stevenson
DB
CHISacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Walker
WR
CHILast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Walker
WR
CHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Walker
WR
CHIReceiving yds10.6---O - / U -MediumOK
N.Sewell
LB
CHISacks0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
V.Jones
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
V.Jones
RB
SEARush yds10.5---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAQB pass yds122.9---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Price
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEARush yds38.5---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion

Player Projections

QB Projections

C.Williams
#18
CHI138223.81.420.20.226.4
S.Darnold
#14
SEA123232.11.418.80.06.4
D.Lock
#2
SEA29108.90.89.40.32.4
C.Keenum
#11
CHI22177.51.017.50.05.0
T.Bagent
#17
CHI314117.70.212.20.49.1
J.Milroe
#6
SEA330.00.00.00.01.3

Offense Projections

J.Smith-Njigba
#11
SEA1581.676.25.98.177.70.5
D.Swift
#4
CHI14063.020.92.53.184.00.6
K.Monangai
#25
CHI22168.111.51.31.979.70.5
E.Wilson
#23
SEA2757.69.30.91.366.90.6
Z.Charbonnet
#26
SEA34935.913.51.92.449.40.5
K.Raymond
#14
CHI37-0.366.36.77.766.00.3
R.Odunze
#15
CHI4360.455.83.86.956.20.3
J.Price
#8
SEA4339.77.01.32.346.70.0
C.Kupp
#10
SEA5230.034.42.84.234.40.1
L.Burden
#10
CHI5223.052.03.74.955.00.2
C.Loveland
#84
CHI623-0.145.64.16.245.50.3
R.Shaheed
#22
SEA6166.421.91.93.528.40.1
C.Kmet
#85
CHI7990.130.63.04.230.60.2
A.Barner
#88
SEA7380.524.82.73.525.30.3
R.Johnson
#23
CHI83816.310.41.61.926.70.2
T.Horton
#15
SEA8120.019.01.52.719.00.5
G.Holani
#36
SEA91910.15.40.80.915.40.1
S.Roush
#87
CHI950.013.21.22.013.20.0
J.Walker
#9
CHI10100.08.90.81.38.90.4
V.Jones
#33
SEA10415.0-0.20.30.314.80.0

Defense Projections

M.Sweat
#98
CHI1290.71.50.99.4
P.O'Connell
#52
SEA111.01.01.02.0
L.Williams
#99
SEA2340.71.81.09.2
D.Jackson
#48
CHI220.50.51.08.5
A.Booker
#94
CHI3140.41.10.65.3
B.Murphy
#91
SEA3120.61.20.88.3
J.Reed
#90
SEA4660.61.40.66.9
T.Edwards
#53
CHI4220.30.81.03.6
U.Nwosu
#7
SEA5360.51.40.77.9
D.Odeyingbo
#55
CHI540.31.00.51.8
D.Lawrence
#0
SEA6130.51.50.87.0
G.Jarrett
#50
CHI670.21.10.11.5
K.Gordon
#6
CHI7120.20.40.84.4
D.Thomas
#32
SEA780.40.81.36.9
T.Okada
#39
SEA840.40.50.85.6
D.Hardy
#92
CHI820.00.50.00.0
T.Knight
#48
SEA9100.30.60.98.4
T.Stevenson
#29
CHI930.00.01.01.7
D.Hall
#58
SEA10290.31.30.43.3
N.Sewell
#44
CHI1030.00.01.01.0