KC at DEN

Pick

DEN

Confidence

58.5%

Margin

+0.4

Odds

-141

Model Read

The model says DEN wins about 59 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +0.4 margin is written from DEN's side, so it means DEN by about 0.4 points. Odds -141 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick DEN: 58.5% win prob | margin +0.4 pts | confidence: 58.5% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+4.2e+03; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.4, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.35 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.4, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.35; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+4.2e+03

Player Props

Game Prop Board

Market


J.Dobbins RB	DEN	Rush yds	46.9	23.5	+23.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114	High	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	QB pass yds	245.7	225.5	+20.2	fanduel	O -114 / U -114	High	OK
K.Walker RB	KC	Rush yds	65.5	82.5	-17.0	draftkings	O -112 / U -112	High	OK
T.Kelce TE	KC	Receiving yds	52.0	48.5	+3.5	draftkings	O -112 / U -112	High	OK
J.Coleman RB	DEN	Rush yds	35.5	38.5	-3.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114	Low	OK
B.Nix QB	DEN	QB pass yds	207.9	206.5	+1.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114	High	OK
K.Walker RB	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	hardrock	O +2000 / U -	High	OK
L.Humphrey WR	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +22500 / U -	High	OK
J.Coleman RB	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +1800 / U -	Low	OK
C.Allen WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +20000 / U -	Low	OK
E.Engram TE	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +7000 / U -	High	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +8000 / U -	High	OK
E.Johnson RB	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +10000 / U -	Medium	OK
C.Sutton WR	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +2200 / U -	High	OK
X.Worthy WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +1800 / U -	High	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +12500 / U -	High	OK
T.Franklin WR	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +6500 / U -	High	OK
B.Nix QB	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +5500 / U -	High	OK
M.Mims WR	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +7000 / U -	High	OK
T.Kelce TE	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +2000 / U -	High	OK
J.Waddle WR	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +2200 / U -	High	Injury Review
R.Rice WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +1800 / U -	High	Injury Review
J.Dobbins RB	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +1800 / U -	High	OK
R.Harvey RB	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	0.5	-0.5	fanduel	O +4500 / U -	High	OK
K.Walker RB	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.1	0.5	-0.4	fanduel	O +450 / U -	High	OK
C.Allen WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +1000 / U -	Low	Fallback Line
E.Johnson RB	KC	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +900 / U -	Medium	Fallback Line
E.Johnson RB	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +900 / U -	Medium	OK
C.Allen WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +1000 / U -	Low	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +700 / U -	High	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +700 / U -	High	Fallback Line
M.Mims WR	DEN	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +600 / U -	High	Fallback Line
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +600 / U -	High	OK
E.Engram TE	DEN	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +500 / U -	High	Fallback Line
L.Humphrey WR	DEN	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	0.5	-0.3	fanduel	O +1100 / U -	High	Fallback Line
T.Franklin WR	DEN	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +600 / U -	High	Fallback Line
L.Humphrey WR	DEN	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	fanduel	O +1100 / U -	High	OK
E.Engram TE	DEN	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +500 / U -	High	OK
T.Franklin WR	DEN	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +600 / U -	High	OK
M.Mims WR	DEN	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +600 / U -	High	OK
X.Worthy WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +265 / U -	High	Fallback Line
K.Walker RB	KC	Rb Rushing Tds	0.8	0.5	+0.3	hardrock	O +105 / U -	High	Fallback Line
C.Sutton WR	DEN	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +265 / U -	High	OK
J.Coleman RB	DEN	Rb Rushing Tds	0.2	0.5	-0.3	hardrock	O +210 / U -	Low	Fallback Line
C.Sutton WR	DEN	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +265 / U -	High	Fallback Line
J.Waddle WR	DEN	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +270 / U -	High	Injury Review
T.Kelce TE	KC	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	hardrock	O +220 / U -	High	OK
J.Waddle WR	DEN	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +270 / U -	High	Injury Review
X.Worthy WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +265 / U -	High	OK
R.Harvey RB	DEN	Rb Rushing Tds	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +400 / U -	High	Fallback Line
J.Coleman RB	DEN	Anytime Td	0.3	0.5	-0.2	hardrock	O +210 / U -	Low	OK
B.Nix QB	DEN	Anytime Td	0.3	0.5	-0.2	draftkings	O +500 / U -	High	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Qb Passing Tds	1.7	1.5	+0.2	fanduel	O +158 / U -215	High	OK
R.Rice WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	0.5	-0.2	fanduel	O +200 / U -	High	Injury Review
T.Kelce TE	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.4	0.5	-0.1	hardrock	O +220 / U -	High	Fallback Line
R.Rice WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.4	0.5	-0.1	fanduel	O +200 / U -	High	Injury Review
J.Dobbins RB	DEN	Anytime Td	0.4	0.5	-0.1	draftkings	O +235 / U -	High	OK
J.Dobbins RB	DEN	Rb Rushing Tds	0.4	0.5	-0.1	draftkings	O +235 / U -	High	Fallback Line
R.Harvey RB	DEN	Anytime Td	0.4	0.5	-0.1	draftkings	O +400 / U -	High	OK
K.Walker RB	KC	Anytime Td	0.5	0.5	+0.0	hardrock	O +105 / U -	High	OK
B.Nix QB	DEN	Qb Passing Tds	1.5	1.5	+0.0	draftkings	O +176 / U -228	High	OK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

Market


B.Nix QB	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
B.Nix QB	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
B.Nix QB	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
C.Jones DL	KC	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Dobbins RB	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Dobbins RB	DEN	Last Td	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Dobbins RB	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
K.Walker RB	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
K.Walker RB	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Bonitto LB	DEN	Sacks	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
C.Sutton WR	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
C.Sutton WR	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
C.Sutton WR	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
C.Sutton WR	DEN	Receiving yds	31.9	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
D.Tillman LB	DEN	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
G.Karlaftis DL	KC	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Kelce TE	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Kelce TE	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Kelce TE	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Williams DB	KC	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
R.Harvey RB	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
R.Harvey RB	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
R.Harvey RB	DEN	Rush yds	24.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
R.Harvey RB	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
R.Rice WR	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
R.Rice WR	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
R.Rice WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
R.Rice WR	KC	Receiving yds	63.8	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
D.Tranquill LB	KC	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.McMillian DB	DEN	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Waddle WR	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
J.Waddle WR	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
J.Waddle WR	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
J.Waddle WR	DEN	Receiving yds	45.5	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
X.Worthy WR	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
X.Worthy WR	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
X.Worthy WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
X.Worthy WR	KC	Receiving yds	35.7	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
C.Conner DB	KC	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Thornton WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
T.Thornton WR	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
T.Thornton WR	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
T.Thornton WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
T.Thornton WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
T.Thornton WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.4	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
T.Thornton WR	KC	Receiving yds	41.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
A.Gillotte DL	KC	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Strnad LB	DEN	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Watson WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Watson WR	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Watson WR	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Watson WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Watson WR	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Watson WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Watson WR	KC	Receiving yds	15.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Mims WR	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Mims WR	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Mims WR	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Mims WR	DEN	Receiving yds	26.6	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Bolton LB	KC	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Hicks DB	KC	Sacks	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Receiving yds	27.5	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Franklin WR	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Franklin WR	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Franklin WR	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Franklin WR	DEN	Receiving yds	18.7	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
Z.Allen DL	DEN	Sacks	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
Dj.Jones DL	DEN	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
E.Engram TE	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
E.Engram TE	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
E.Engram TE	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
E.Engram TE	DEN	Receiving yds	28.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
E.Uwazurike DL	DEN	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
L.Humphrey WR	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
L.Humphrey WR	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
L.Humphrey WR	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
L.Humphrey WR	DEN	Receiving yds	14.6	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Stidham QB	DEN	Anytime Td	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Stidham QB	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Stidham QB	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Stidham QB	DEN	Qb Passing Tds	0.4	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Stidham QB	DEN	QB pass yds	103.8	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Stidham QB	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Stidham QB	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Cooper LB	DEN	Sacks	0.4	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Elliss LB	DEN	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
E.Johnson RB	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
E.Johnson RB	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
E.Johnson RB	KC	Rush yds	10.6	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
E.Johnson RB	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
P.Bryant WR	DEN	Anytime Td	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
P.Bryant WR	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
P.Bryant WR	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
P.Bryant WR	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
P.Bryant WR	DEN	Two Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
P.Bryant WR	DEN	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
P.Bryant WR	DEN	Receiving yds	32.7	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
M.Roach DL	DEN	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
B.Smith RB	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
B.Smith RB	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
B.Smith RB	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
B.Smith RB	KC	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
B.Smith RB	KC	Rush yds	12.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
B.Smith RB	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
B.Smith RB	KC	Two Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
C.McDonald LB	KC	Sacks	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Coleman RB	DEN	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
J.Coleman RB	DEN	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
J.Coleman RB	DEN	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
C.Allen WR	KC	First Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
C.Allen WR	KC	Last Td	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
C.Allen WR	KC	Three Plus Tds	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
C.Allen WR	KC	Receiving yds	16.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


P.Mahomes #15	KC	1	132	283.4	2.1	24.4	0.6	20.7
B.Nix #10	DEN	1	41	219.0	1.5	21.8	0.3	21.9
J.Stidham #8	DEN	2	5	99.2	0.4	8.0	0.2	2.4

Offense Projections

Market


J.Dobbins #27	DEN	1	17	62.6	3.8	1.1	1.4	66.4	0.4
K.Walker #9	KC	1	6	116.8	19.3	3.0	4.5	136.2	1.3
T.Kelce #87	KC	2	197	0.1	67.7	5.6	7.8	67.8	0.4
C.Sutton #14	DEN	2	121	0.2	53.9	3.9	6.6	54.1	0.3
R.Rice #4	KC	3	30	0.6	66.2	5.6	7.5	66.8	0.5
R.Harvey #12	DEN	3	23	27.3	24.9	3.1	3.7	52.2	0.6
X.Worthy #1	KC	4	36	5.3	38.5	3.5	5.7	43.8	0.3
J.Waddle #17	DEN	4	7	3.3	39.4	3.7	6.4	42.7	0.1
T.Thornton #2	KC	5	16	0.0	41.1	1.9	3.3	41.1	0.3
J.Coleman #20	DEN	5	3	31.0	11.3	1.7	1.7	42.3	0.3
P.Bryant #13	DEN	6	17	0.9	30.1	2.4	3.6	31.0	0.1
E.Johnson #10	KC	6	6	10.3	18.2	1.5	1.8	28.5	0.0
M.Mims #19	DEN	7	51	3.1	25.2	2.1	2.9	28.2	0.2
J.Watson #84	KC	7	48	0.0	22.3	1.4	2.5	22.3	0.1
N.Gray #83	KC	8	76	0.0	18.6	1.8	2.4	18.6	0.1
T.Franklin #11	DEN	8	39	0.6	26.6	2.5	4.3	27.3	0.2
E.Engram #1	DEN	9	23	0.3	26.0	2.7	4.3	26.3	0.1
B.Smith #24	KC	9	19	7.9	9.3	1.4	1.9	17.2	0.1
L.Humphrey #5	DEN	10	33	0.0	17.2	1.7	2.5	17.2	0.1
C.Allen #13	KC	10	4	0.0	11.2	0.8	1.5	11.2	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


C.Jones #95	KC	1	125	0.7	1.8	0.8	9.1
N.Bonitto #15	DEN	1	46	0.8	1.6	1.0	10.9
G.Karlaftis #56	KC	2	51	0.6	1.6	0.7	6.2
D.Tillman #92	DEN	2	12	0.8	1.3	0.7	11.9
J.Cooper #0	DEN	3	47	0.7	1.3	0.7	8.3
N.Williams #20	KC	3	2	0.5	0.5	2.0	13.0
D.Tranquill #23	KC	4	24	0.3	0.8	0.9	4.5
J.McMillian #29	DEN	4	12	0.6	0.8	1.3	12.3
C.Conner #27	KC	5	14	0.2	0.6	0.7	4.4
J.Elliss #52	DEN	5	13	0.6	0.8	0.9	9.5
J.Strnad #40	DEN	6	16	0.5	0.8	0.8	5.4
A.Gillotte #97	KC	6	8	0.2	1.0	0.4	1.0
N.Bolton #32	KC	7	44	0.1	0.6	0.9	3.8
M.Roach #97	DEN	7	14	0.5	0.9	0.6	5.0
Z.Allen #99	DEN	8	48	0.4	2.3	0.6	4.6
J.Hicks #21	KC	8	5	0.1	0.4	0.6	2.5
Dj.Jones #93	DEN	9	20	0.4	0.8	0.7	4.7
C.McDonald #44	KC	9	1	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0
E.Uwazurike #96	DEN	10	10	0.4	0.8	0.5	3.4

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