Matty The Bookie
Back to week 8

Published Pick

Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC

TEN at CIN

Pick
CIN
Confidence
64.0%
Margin
+8.0
Odds
-178

Model Read

The model says CIN wins about 64 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +8.0 margin is written from CIN's side, so it means CIN by about 8.0 points. Odds -178 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CIN: 64.0% win prob | margin +8.0 pts | confidence: 64.0% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+52, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+52, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.Pollard
RB
TENRush yds76.766.5+10.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINReceiving yds77.467.5+9.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINQB pass yds277.7269.5+8.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINReceiving yds87.280.5+6.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINReceiving yds29.923.5+6.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENReceiving yds56.651.5+5.1fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumInjury Review
C.Ward
QB
TENQB pass yds191.7196.5-4.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINRush yds28.924.5+4.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENReceiving yds19.615.5+4.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENReceiving yds34.638.5-3.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINRush yds50.451.5-1.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Higgins
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Meyers
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
C.Ward
QB
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -MediumOK
M.Carter
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -MediumOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Tinsley
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -MediumOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Dike
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
C.Brown
RB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -900 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Meyers
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -MediumOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Meyers
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -MediumOK
S.Perine
RB
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Ward
QB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Carter
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1300 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -MediumOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Ridley
WR
TENLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -8000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +430 / U -HighOK
J.Burrow
QB
CINQb Passing Tds2.12.5-0.4fanduelO +144 / U -194HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1400 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Meyers
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +475 / U -MediumFallback Line
G.Helm
TE
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Spears
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Carter
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +800 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Meyers
WR
CINAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +475 / U -MediumOK
G.Helm
TE
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumFallback Line
D.Bellinger
TE
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1400 / U -HighOK
M.Carter
RB
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumOK
C.Tate
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +280 / U -MediumInjury Review
C.Dike
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Ward
QB
TENQb Passing Tds0.80.5+0.3draftkingsO -225 / U +174HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Tate
WR
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +280 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Burrow
QB
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
S.Perine
RB
CINRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +240 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Dike
WR
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +350 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +350 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Chase
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.80.5+0.3draftkingsO -115 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Brown
RB
CINRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +110 / U -HighFallback Line
S.Perine
RB
CINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +240 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Gesicki
TE
CINAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +330 / U -HighOK
M.Gesicki
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +330 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Ridley
WR
TENAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +600 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Brown
RB
CINAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +110 / U -HighOK
J.Chase
WR
CINAnytime Td0.70.5+0.2draftkingsO -115 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +110 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +110 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Higgins
WR
CINAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +105 / U -HighOK
T.Higgins
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +105 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

J.Flacco
QB
CINAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINQb Passing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINQB pass yds71.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Flacco
QB
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Simmons
DL
TENSacks0.6---O - / U -HighOK
M.Murphy
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
C.Barton
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENReceiving yds25.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Knight
LB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Slaton
DL
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENRush yds13.5---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Spears
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Hill
DL
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Gray
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENReceiving yds28.6---O - / U -HighOK
A.Hooker
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
A.Iosivas
WR
CINAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Iosivas
WR
CINReceiving yds18.7---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Dike
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENReceiving yds15.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Hudson
TE
CINAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hudson
TE
CINReceiving yds16.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Battle
DB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Carter
RB
TENLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Carter
RB
TENRush yds18.6---O - / U -HighOK
M.Carter
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENReceiving yds14.7---O - / U -HighOK
D.Hill
DB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
K.Jenkins
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Jones
DL
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Johnson
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Williams
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Winston
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Meyers
WR
CINReceiving yds22.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Davis
DB
CINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
F.Oladejo
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Stewart
DL
CINSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
E.All
TE
CINAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.All
TE
CINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.All
TE
CINLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.All
TE
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.All
TE
CINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.All
TE
CINWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.All
TE
CINReceiving yds22.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
M.Harris
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Robinson
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Tinsley
WR
CINReceiving yds17.4---O - / U -MediumOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Burrow
#9
CIN183270.62.125.00.610.9
C.Ward
#1
TEN124211.40.922.00.012.0
J.Flacco
#16
CIN29184.91.417.60.02.4

Offense Projections

J.Chase
#1
CIN1840.885.66.69.786.40.7
C.Tate
#14
TEN170.097.38.011.997.30.1
C.Brown
#30
CIN24950.522.43.44.172.80.5
T.Pollard
#20
TEN24071.512.92.33.184.50.4
T.Higgins
#5
CIN3880.368.34.87.568.60.5
C.Ridley
#0
TEN3291.950.03.15.951.90.2
M.Gesicki
#88
CIN4330.034.53.24.334.50.3
W.Robinson
#4
TEN470.346.96.49.447.10.6
S.Perine
#34
CIN56323.011.11.62.034.10.3
T.Spears
#2
TEN54824.620.63.13.745.10.2
E.Ayomanor
#5
TEN6230.035.02.45.235.00.3
D.Meyers
#81
CIN661.723.52.23.325.20.0
A.Iosivas
#80
CIN7430.324.42.03.424.70.3
G.Helm
#84
TEN7220.022.83.03.822.80.1
T.Hudson
#87
CIN8350.020.22.43.020.20.1
C.Dike
#17
TEN8240.820.92.43.521.60.2
E.All
#83
CIN9110.019.52.52.819.50.0
M.Carter
#35
TEN917.07.01.01.014.00.0
M.Tinsley
#82
CIN10100.017.21.23.217.20.2
D.Bellinger
#82
TEN1070.08.41.42.38.40.0

Defense Projections

K.Jenkins
#90
CIN170.61.10.76.4
T.Jones
#56
TEN120.81.01.013.5
J.Simmons
#98
TEN2620.71.41.110.5
M.Murphy
#99
CIN2150.61.10.74.9
D.Knight
#44
CIN360.50.80.75.2
C.Barton
#50
TEN340.30.31.08.0
C.Johnson
#52
CIN470.41.30.45.1
J.Williams
#52
TEN440.30.30.86.3
T.Slaton
#98
CIN570.41.00.65.6
K.Winston
#23
TEN550.20.80.85.8
B.Hill
#92
CIN6530.41.20.54.6
C.Gray
#33
TEN680.10.40.93.3
A.Hooker
#37
TEN7140.10.20.92.6
J.Davis
#35
CIN730.30.70.77.3
S.Stewart
#94
CIN840.31.00.53.3
F.Oladejo
#7
TEN820.01.01.04.0
J.Battle
#27
CIN980.30.50.93.9
M.Harris
#26
TEN910.00.01.01.0
D.Hill
#23
CIN10110.20.60.83.5
M.Robinson
#21
TEN1010.00.01.02.0