ARI at SEA

Pick

SEA

Confidence

73.8%

Margin

+9.0

Odds

-281

Model Read

The model says SEA wins about 74 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +9.0 margin is written from SEA's side, so it means SEA by about 9.0 points. Odds -281 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick SEA: 73.8% win prob | margin +9.0 pts | confidence: 73.8% home | Offense diffs: favor crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.5, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.35; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03, indoor_diff=-1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03, indoor_diff=-1; oppose crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.5, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.35

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


T.McBride TE	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.6 vs 0.5 +0.1	fanduel	Research only
Jerome Ford RB	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
T.Horton WR	SEA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
C.Kupp WR	SEA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
A.Barner TE	SEA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
Montorie Foster Jr. WR	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Quitoriano TE	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Minshew QB	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Devin Duvernay WR	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Minshew QB	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
Evan Hull RB	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Irv Charles WR	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Nick Kallerup TE	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Brady Russell RB	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Eric Saubert TE	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Price RB	SEA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Z.Charbonnet RB	SEA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jerome Ford RB	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Irv Charles WR	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Nick Kallerup TE	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Lock QB	SEA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Evan Hull RB	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Holani RB	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
Montorie Foster Jr. WR	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	60 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Minshew QB	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	60 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Price RB	SEA	Rush yds	Under 55.5	57 Mild Lean	34.7 vs 55.5 -20.8	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
E.Wilson RB	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	57 Mild Lean	0.5 vs 0.5 -0.0	fanduel	Research only
Brady Russell RB	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	57 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Brady Russell RB	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	56 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Nick Kallerup TE	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	55 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Evan Hull RB	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	55 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Devin Duvernay WR	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	55 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Lock QB	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	55 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Irv Charles WR	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	54 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Eric Saubert TE	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	53 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Simi Fehoko WR	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Devin Duvernay WR	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Minshew QB	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
T.Quitoriano TE	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Horton WR	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
Eric Saubert TE	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Holani RB	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	46 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	45 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Montorie Foster Jr. WR	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	44 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Holani RB	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	42 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
G.Holani RB	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
E.Wilson RB	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Lock QB	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	41 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Minshew QB	ARI	Qb Passing Tds	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	1.5 vs 0.5 +1.0	fanduel	O -225 / U +168
J.Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	Receiving yds	Under 94.5	39 Low Signal	92.3 vs 94.5 -2.2	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
T.Quitoriano TE	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	38 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Gibbens LB	ARI	Sacks	Over 1.0	38 Low Signal	0.1 vs 1.0 -0.9	draftkings	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	37 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
G.Minshew QB	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	37 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Lock QB	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	37 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
E.Wilson RB	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	36 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
E.Wilson RB	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
Jerome Ford RB	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
D.Lock QB	SEA	Qb Passing Tds	Under 1.5	35 Review First	0.9 vs 1.5 -0.6	draftkings	O -111 / U -114
A.Barner TE	SEA	Receiving yds	Under 24.5	34 Low Signal	23.8 vs 24.5 -0.7	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
D.Lock QB	SEA	QB pass yds	Under 198.5	34 Review First	186.4 vs 198.5 -12.1	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Rush yds	Under 49.5	33 Low Signal	47.2 vs 49.5 -2.3	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
T.McBride TE	ARI	Receiving yds	Under 59.5	33 Low Signal	59.1 vs 59.5 -0.4	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
G.Minshew QB	ARI	QB pass yds	Under 196.5	33 Low Signal	185.2 vs 196.5 -11.3	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Z.Charbonnet RB	SEA	Rush yds	Under 32.5	30 Low Signal	31.1 vs 32.5 -1.4	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
A.Barner TE	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
D.Hall LB	SEA	Sacks	Over 1.0	30 Low Signal	0.2 vs 1.0 -0.8	draftkings	Research only
A.Barner TE	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
A.Barner TE	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Kupp WR	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
DeMarcus Lawrence LB	SEA	Sacks	Over 1.0	29 Low Signal	0.2 vs 1.0 -0.8	draftkings	Research only
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	Receiving yds	Under 48.5	29 Low Signal	51.6 vs 48.5 +3.1	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
W.Nolen DL	ARI	Sacks	Over 1.0	29 Review First	0.2 vs 1.0 -0.8	draftkings	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Price RB	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jerome Ford RB	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
N.Emmanwori DB	SEA	Sacks	Over 1.0	27 Low Signal	0.3 vs 1.0 -0.7	draftkings	Research only
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Receiving yds	Over 13.5	27 Low Signal	18.5 vs 13.5 +5.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
J.Price RB	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Kupp WR	SEA	Receiving yds	Under 25.5	26 Low Signal	29.1 vs 25.5 +3.6	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.Horton WR	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Sweat LB	ARI	Sacks	Over 1.0	25 Low Signal	0.3 vs 1.0 -0.7	draftkings	Research only
C.Kupp WR	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Price RB	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
B.Murphy DL	SEA	Sacks	Over 1.0	24 Low Signal	0.4 vs 1.0 -0.6	draftkings	Research only
T.Horton WR	SEA	Receiving yds	Under 17.5	24 Low Signal	20.4 vs 17.5 +2.9	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
T.McBride TE	ARI	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jerome Ford RB	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Price RB	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
A.Barner TE	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
R.Virgil WR	ARI	Receiving yds	Under 14.5	21 Low Signal	14.5 vs 14.5 +0.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	First Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Montorie Foster Jr. WR	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Lock QB	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
T.Horton WR	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
C.Kupp WR	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
Z.Charbonnet RB	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
Z.Charbonnet RB	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
J.Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	draftkings	Research only
Z.Charbonnet RB	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Kupp WR	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
J.Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
J.Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.6 vs 0.5 +0.1	hardrock	Research only
Z.Charbonnet RB	SEA	Last Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.McBride TE	ARI	Last Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
J.Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	First Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
T.Horton WR	SEA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	13 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


S.Darnold #14	SEA	1	24	241.0	1.5	19.6	0.0	7.7
J.Brissett #7	ARI	1	22	238.7	1.6	24.1	0.0	12.4
D.Lock #2	SEA	2	9	108.9	0.8	9.4	0.3	2.4
G.Minshew #15	ARI	2	1	188.0	3.0	17.0	0.0	0.0
J.Milroe #6	SEA	3	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3

Offense Projections

Market


T.McBride #85	ARI	1	67	0.0	60.0	6.2	8.2	60.0	0.3
E.Wilson #23	SEA	1	7	71.9	11.4	1.0	1.4	83.3	0.7
J.Smith-Njigba #11	SEA	2	59	1.8	79.4	6.0	8.4	81.2	0.5
T.Allgeier #22	ARI	2	8	40.4	16.0	2.6	2.8	56.4	0.4
Z.Charbonnet #26	SEA	3	50	35.7	13.3	2.0	2.4	49.0	0.4
J.Love #4	ARI	3	6	44.7	6.0	1.8	2.3	50.7	0.3
Mi.Wilson #14	ARI	4	54	0.6	48.2	3.9	6.2	48.9	0.3
J.Price #8	SEA	4	4	37.0	7.2	1.5	2.8	44.2	0.0
C.Kupp #10	SEA	5	24	0.0	34.1	2.8	4.3	34.1	0.2
Z.Knight #20	ARI	5	17	25.7	11.9	1.6	2.4	37.6	0.3
R.Shaheed #22	SEA	6	16	6.4	22.0	2.1	3.7	28.4	0.1
K.Bourne #17	ARI	6	7	0.0	37.6	3.7	5.4	37.6	0.0
E.Higgins #84	ARI	7	47	0.0	16.7	1.7	2.1	16.7	0.1
A.Barner #88	SEA	7	39	0.6	25.9	2.7	3.7	26.5	0.3
T.Horton #15	SEA	8	13	0.0	19.5	1.6	3.0	19.5	0.5
T.Quitoriano #47	ARI	8	1	0.0	15.0	2.0	2.0	15.0	2.0
G.Holani #36	SEA	9	20	10.6	5.7	0.8	1.0	16.2	0.1
R.Virgil #82	ARI	9	2	0.0	14.5	1.0	3.5	14.5	0.0
J.Brooks #86	ARI	10	10	0.0	13.2	0.8	2.3	13.2	0.0
V.Jones #33	SEA	10	4	15.0	-0.2	0.3	0.3	14.8	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


A.Billings #95	ARI	1	1	3.0	3.0	3.0	24.0
P.O'Connell #52	SEA	1	1	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.0
J.Sweat #10	ARI	2	16	1.4	2.1	1.8	18.9
E.Jones #13	SEA	2	11	1.0	0.9	1.4	8.6
B.Murphy #91	SEA	3	17	1.0	2.0	1.5	13.5
J.Burch #52	ARI	3	3	1.3	1.3	2.3	16.3
L.Williams #99	SEA	4	42	0.7	2.2	1.3	9.7
L.Collier #91	ARI	4	8	0.8	1.9	0.9	9.1
N.Emmanwori #3	SEA	5	13	0.7	2.2	1.4	12.8
D.Robinson #56	ARI	5	11	0.7	2.0	1.6	12.6
D.Stills #55	ARI	6	17	0.7	1.3	1.3	11.4
M.Morris #94	SEA	6	5	0.6	1.8	1.0	12.8
U.Nwosu #7	SEA	7	38	0.6	1.6	0.8	9.1
W.Nolen #97	ARI	7	8	0.6	1.8	1.4	6.5
D.Hall #58	SEA	8	35	0.6	1.9	0.7	4.9
J.Gibbens #50	ARI	8	3	0.5	3.0	1.0	7.0
J.Reed #90	SEA	9	70	0.6	1.5	0.7	7.3
B.Browning #5	ARI	9	14	0.5	1.0	1.0	5.1
Z.Collins #25	ARI	10	39	0.5	0.8	1.0	8.9
D.Thomas #32	SEA	10	12	0.5	1.1	1.8	7.4

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