Matty The Bookie
Back to week 9

Published Pick

Sun, Nov 8, 9:25 PM UTC

GB at NE

Pick
NE
Confidence
66.1%
Margin
+3.8
Odds
-195

Model Read

The model says NE wins about 66 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +3.8 margin is written from NE's side, so it means NE by about 3.8 points. Odds -195 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick NE: 66.1% win prob | margin +3.8 pts | confidence: 66.1% home | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-3.5e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-3.5e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.05; oppose none

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

J.Love
QB
GBQB pass ydsUnder 271.5
73
Solid Lean
213.2 vs 271.5
-58.3
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Savion Williams
WR
GBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Efton Chism III
WR
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Maye
QB
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
K.Williams
WR
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
Cameron Latu
TE
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Tanner Arkin
TE
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Drake Dabney
TE
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Bo Melton
WR
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Cameron Latu
TE
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
P.Strong
RB
GBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Smith
TE
GBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Mark Redman
TE
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Smith
TE
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Kiner
RB
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Kraft
TE
GBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
E.Raridon
TE
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Coleman Owen
WR
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Lan Larison
RB
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J. Michael Sturdivant
WR
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Love
QB
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Golden
WR
GBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
P.Strong
RB
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Coleman Owen
WR
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Douglas
WR
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
K.Williams
WR
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
draftkingsResearch only
Bo Melton
WR
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Lloyd
RB
GBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Hollins
WR
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
H.Henry
TE
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
C.Watson
WR
GBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
M.Lloyd
RB
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J. Michael Sturdivant
WR
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
62
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Drake Dabney
TE
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
62
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Tanner Arkin
TE
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Cameron Latu
TE
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Golden
WR
GBReceiving ydsUnder 67.5
61
Mild Lean
57.8 vs 67.5
-9.7
fanduelO -113 / U -113
J.Jacobs
RB
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
fanduelResearch only
J. Michael Sturdivant
WR
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Coleman Owen
WR
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Bo Melton
WR
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Mark Redman
TE
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Savion Williams
WR
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
P.Strong
RB
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Lloyd
RB
GBRush ydsOver 8.5
53
Review First
24.5 vs 8.5
+16.0
draftkingsO -108 / U -116
Cameron Latu
TE
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Lan Larison
RB
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Watson
WR
GBReceiving ydsUnder 70.5
50
Review First
64.7 vs 70.5
-5.8
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Tanner Arkin
TE
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
P.Strong
RB
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Smith
TE
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Stevenson
RB
NEThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
J.Love
QB
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Drake Dabney
TE
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Smith
TE
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Mark Redman
TE
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Love
QB
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Stevenson
RB
NERush ydsUnder 54.5
45
Low Signal
47.7 vs 54.5
-6.8
fanduelO -113 / U -113
J.Jacobs
RB
GBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
J.Smith
TE
GBLast TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
K.Williams
WR
NEReceiving ydsOver 17.5
44
Low Signal
25.5 vs 17.5
+8.0
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
Lan Larison
RB
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Kraft
TE
GBReceiving ydsUnder 45.5
43
Low Signal
42.3 vs 45.5
-3.2
fanduelO -113 / U -113
M.Hollins
WR
NEReceiving ydsOver 32.5
43
Review First
40.2 vs 32.5
+7.7
fanduelO -113 / U -113
C.Kiner
RB
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Savion Williams
WR
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
38
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Hollins
WR
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
38
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Hollins
WR
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
38
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jacobs
RB
GBRush ydsUnder 47.5
36
Low Signal
44.1 vs 47.5
-3.4
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Efton Chism III
WR
NEReceiving ydsUnder 25.5
36
Low Signal
22.7 vs 25.5
-2.8
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Kraft
TE
GBLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Golden
WR
GBLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Love
QB
GBLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Bo Melton
WR
GBLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Lloyd
RB
GBLast TdOver 0.5
35
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Savion Williams
WR
GBLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Kiner
RB
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Kiner
RB
NERush ydsOver 21.5
32
Low Signal
28.8 vs 21.5
+7.3
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Efton Chism III
WR
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Jones
LB
NESacksOver 1.0
32
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
H.Henry
TE
NEReceiving ydsUnder 37.5
31
Review First
37.4 vs 37.5
-0.1
draftkingsO -110 / U -114
Savion Williams
WR
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Williams
WR
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Williams
WR
NELast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Maye
QB
NELast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Douglas
WR
NELast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
H.Henry
TE
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Savion Williams
WR
GBReceiving ydsUnder 18.5
28
Low Signal
18.0 vs 18.5
-0.5
fanduelO -113 / U -113
E.Ponder
LB
NESacksUnder 0.3
28
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.3
-0.0
draftkingsO +139 / U -176
Lan Larison
RB
NELast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Hollins
WR
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
28
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Douglas
WR
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Douglas
WR
NEReceiving ydsUnder 40.5
27
Low Signal
44.0 vs 40.5
+3.5
fanduelO -113 / U -113
M.Lloyd
RB
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
27
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Lloyd
RB
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
H.Henry
TE
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
27
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Maye
QB
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
-0.0
fanduelResearch only
J.Love
QB
GBQb Passing TdsOver 1.5
26
Low Signal
1.7 vs 1.5
+0.2
draftkingsO +101 / U -128
C.Kiner
RB
NELast TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
H.Henry
TE
NELast TdOver 0.5
26
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Hollins
WR
NELast TdOver 0.5
26
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Kraft
TE
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
C.Barmore
DL
NESacksOver 1.0
25
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
draftkingsResearch only
Efton Chism III
WR
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Karl Brooks
DL
GBSacksOver 0.3
25
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.3
-0.2
draftkingsO +390 / U -533
C.Kiner
RB
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Maye
QB
NEQB pass ydsUnder 230.5
25
Low Signal
222.0 vs 230.5
-8.5
fanduelO -113 / U -113
K.Williams
WR
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
M.Golden
WR
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jacobs
RB
GBLast TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Efton Chism III
WR
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Douglas
WR
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Maye
QB
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Douglas
WR
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
R.Stevenson
RB
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
E.Raridon
TE
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Maye
QB
NEQb Passing TdsOver 1.5
21
Low Signal
1.6 vs 1.5
+0.1
draftkingsO -111 / U -115
L.Van Ness
LB
GBSacksUnder 0.3
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.3
+0.0
draftkingsO +160 / U -205
H.Henry
TE
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
E.Raridon
TE
NELast TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Maye
QB
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
M.Golden
WR
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
Efton Chism III
WR
NELast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
G.Jacas
LB
NESacksUnder 0.3
18
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.3
-0.1
draftkingsO +196 / U -254
M.Golden
WR
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Stevenson
RB
NELast TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Watson
WR
GBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
18
Review First
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
C.Watson
WR
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Watson
WR
GBLast TdOver 0.5
18
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Kraft
TE
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
R.Stevenson
RB
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
T.Kraft
TE
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Williams
DL
NESacksUnder 0.3
17
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.3
-0.1
draftkingsO +204 / U -265
J.Jacobs
RB
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.6 vs 0.5
+0.1
draftkingsResearch only
R.Stevenson
RB
NETwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jacobs
RB
GBFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Watson
WR
GBAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Review First
0.5 vs 0.5
-0.0
draftkingsResearch only
E.Raridon
TE
NEAnytime TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
B.Cox
LB
GBSacksOver 0.3
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.3
-0.1
draftkingsO +262 / U -344
E.Raridon
TE
NEFirst TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Wyatt
DL
GBSacksUnder 0.3
13
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.3
-0.0
draftkingsO +215 / U -280

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Love
#10
GB165216.31.518.40.48.9
D.Maye
#10
NE138250.21.721.30.332.2
T.Taylor
#6
GB210.00.00.00.0-2.0
T.DeVito
#16
NE2160.00.06.00.04.0

Offense Projections

J.Jacobs
#8
GB13468.620.42.42.989.01.0
R.Doubs
#87
NE160.077.34.37.377.30.8
R.Stevenson
#38
NE27853.820.52.83.674.30.5
C.Watson
#9
GB2552.154.03.25.356.20.5
J.Reed
#11
GB3407.847.03.55.054.80.5
T.Henderson
#32
NE32354.611.81.82.366.40.5
M.Golden
#0
GB4222.544.53.35.747.00.2
M.Hollins
#13
NE4180.242.23.44.742.40.1
H.Henry
#85
NE5860.039.93.55.039.90.3
J.Smith
#18
GB540.047.03.04.047.00.0
D.Douglas
#3
NE6541.437.83.44.939.30.2
T.Kraft
#85
GB6430.344.23.44.744.50.4
K.Johnson
#26
GB7634.73.30.31.038.00.0
A.Brown
#1
NE730.033.73.06.733.70.0
E.Raridon
#82
NE870.031.02.33.431.00.4
P.Strong
#22
GB8312.316.72.73.329.00.0
M.Lloyd
#32
GB9918.29.11.62.027.30.3
C.Kiner
#9
NE9827.23.10.40.430.40.0
C.Brooks
#30
GB103211.25.80.81.117.00.0
K.Williams
#18
NE10220.120.10.91.920.30.2

Defense Projections

E.Ponder
#91
NE1112.23.72.529.4
D.Dennis-Sutton
#51
GB142.15.03.332.4
B.Cisse
#2
GB231.82.72.019.0
D.Jones
#5
NE222.07.04.042.0
L.Taylor
#93
NE341.82.02.520.5
T.Hopper
#59
GB321.53.00.51.0
G.Jacas
#50
NE461.54.02.015.5
J.Ford
#96
GB411.53.00.012.0
A.Campbell
#93
GB521.51.53.025.5
J.Reed
#23
NE511.53.00.09.0
B.Sorrell
#99
GB661.22.81.28.8
J.Farmer
#92
NE621.51.52.034.0
B.Cox
#57
GB791.02.81.818.9
D.Pettus
#24
NE721.01.01.019.0
C.Barmore
#90
NE8410.61.60.810.0
D.Wyatt
#95
GB8280.91.41.212.0
C.Durden
#94
NE980.62.01.43.1
X.McKinney
#29
GB960.81.50.811.3
L.Van Ness
#90
GB10290.82.01.29.3
M.Williams
#97
NE10120.51.21.28.6