Matty The Bookie
Back to week 9

Published Pick

Tue, Nov 10, 1:15 AM UTC

BUF at MIN

Pick
BUF
Confidence
77.6%
Margin
-8.5
Odds
+345

Model Read

The home-team number says MIN wins about 22 out of 100 times. Because the pick is BUF, use the other side of that math: BUF wins about 78 out of 100 times. The -8.5 margin is written from MIN's side, so it means BUF by about 8.5 points. Odds +345 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick BUF: 77.6% win prob | margin -8.5 pts | confidence: 77.6% away | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+2.4e+02, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+2.4e+02, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

D.Kincaid
TE
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.6 vs 0.5
+0.1
fanduelResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.7 vs 0.5
+0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.7 vs 0.5
+0.2
fanduelResearch only
Keleki Latu
TE
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Max Bredeson
RB
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Greg Dortch
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
D.Dallas
RB
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Ben Yurosek
TE
MINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Hawes
TE
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Davis
RB
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
Myles Price
WR
MINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Hawes
TE
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Wentz
QB
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Tai Felton
WR
MINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Addison
WR
MINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
A.Jones
RB
MINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
R.Davis
RB
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Johnson
RB
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Ben Yurosek
TE
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Jones
RB
MINRush ydsOver 31.5
67
Mild Lean
53.8 vs 31.5
+22.3
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Allen
QB
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
66
Mild Lean
0.8 vs 0.5
+0.3
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jefferson
WR
MINReceiving ydsUnder 76.5
66
Mild Lean
64.3 vs 76.5
-12.2
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
Max Bredeson
RB
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.7 vs 0.5
+0.2
draftkingsResearch only
T.Hockenson
TE
MINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Greg Dortch
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
fanduelResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
draftkingsResearch only
D.Dallas
RB
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Keleki Latu
TE
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Tai Felton
WR
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Jefferson
WR
MINThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
Keleki Latu
TE
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Myles Price
WR
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
58
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFReceiving ydsOver 28.5
57
Review First
40.0 vs 28.5
+11.5
fanduelO -114 / U -114
C.Wentz
QB
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
56
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Greg Dortch
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Dallas
RB
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Johnson
RB
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Hockenson
TE
MINReceiving ydsUnder 41.5
52
Low Signal
34.8 vs 41.5
-6.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Max Bredeson
RB
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Davis
RB
BUFRush ydsOver 5.5
51
Low Signal
18.7 vs 5.5
+13.2
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Hawes
TE
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Ben Yurosek
TE
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Wentz
QB
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Ben Yurosek
TE
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Davis
RB
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Ben Yurosek
TE
MINReceiving ydsOver 3.5
47
Low Signal
13.7 vs 3.5
+10.2
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
Myles Price
WR
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFReceiving ydsOver 36.5
45
Low Signal
44.6 vs 36.5
+8.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
44
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Johnson
RB
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Davis
RB
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
41
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Tai Felton
WR
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
41
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Hawes
TE
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFReceiving ydsOver 7.5
39
Low Signal
14.4 vs 7.5
+6.9
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Tai Felton
WR
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Walker
DL
BUFSacksOver 1.0
37
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
E.Oliver
DL
BUFSacksOver 0.3
37
Review First
0.5 vs 0.3
+0.2
draftkingsO +223 / U -290
D.Knox
TE
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
L.Rodriguez
DL
MINSacksOver 1.0
36
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
K.Van Noy
LB
MINSacksOver 1.0
36
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
fanduelResearch only
Myles Price
WR
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Wentz
QB
MINQB pass ydsUnder 209.5
35
Low Signal
197.1 vs 209.5
-12.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Addison
WR
MINReceiving ydsOver 39.5
35
Low Signal
45.6 vs 39.5
+6.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
T.Johnson
RB
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Ben Yurosek
TE
MINLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Dallas
RB
MINLast TdOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
A.Van Ginkel
LB
MINSacksUnder 0.8
34
Low Signal
0.6 vs 0.8
-0.2
draftkingsO -110 / U -115
Terrel Bernard
LB
BUFSacksOver 1.0
33
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
fanduelResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Ingram-Dawkins
DL
MINSacksOver 1.0
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
J.Redmond
DL
MINSacksOver 1.0
31
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
C.Wentz
QB
MINLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINLast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFReceiving ydsUnder 47.5
30
Review First
48.9 vs 47.5
+1.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
B.Cashman
LB
MINSacksOver 1.0
29
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFReceiving ydsUnder 39.5
29
Low Signal
42.0 vs 39.5
+2.5
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Addison
WR
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFQB pass ydsUnder 237.5
26
Low Signal
229.0 vs 237.5
-8.5
fanduelO -114 / U -114
K.Shakir
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
A.Jones
RB
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
T.Hockenson
TE
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
E.Wilson
LB
MINSacksOver 1.0
25
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
draftkingsResearch only
B.Chubb
LB
BUFSacksOver 1.0
25
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFRush ydsUnder 82.5
24
Low Signal
85.7 vs 82.5
+3.2
fanduelO -114 / U -114
K.Coleman
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
24
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Hockenson
TE
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
23
Review First
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
fanduelResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Hoecht
LB
BUFSacksOver 1.0
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
G.Rousseau
LB
BUFSacksOver 1.0
22
Low Signal
0.6 vs 1.0
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Turner
LB
MINSacksOver 1.0
22
Low Signal
0.6 vs 1.0
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
T.Parker
LB
BUFSacksOver 1.0
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
fanduelResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Hockenson
TE
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
C.Wentz
QB
MINQb Passing TdsOver 1.5
20
Low Signal
1.6 vs 1.5
+0.1
fanduelO +102 / U -136
J.Cook
RB
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
20
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
A.Jones
RB
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Addison
WR
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFQb Passing TdsOver 1.5
19
Low Signal
1.6 vs 1.5
+0.1
draftkingsO +143 / U -183
K.Coleman
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
18
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jefferson
WR
MINAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFReceiving ydsUnder 5.5
17
Low Signal
9.1 vs 5.5
+3.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Jefferson
WR
MINLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Addison
WR
MINLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.6 vs 0.5
+0.1
draftkingsResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.6 vs 0.5
+0.1
hardrockResearch only
J.Jefferson
WR
MINTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
J.Addison
WR
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
A.Jones
RB
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Jefferson
WR
MINFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Jones
RB
MINLast TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Hockenson
TE
MINLast TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Allen
#17
BUF1133247.41.821.30.638.4
K.Murray
#1
MIN16359.81.336.00.046.0
K.Allen
#11
BUF270.00.00.00.0-2.1
C.Wentz
#11
MIN27252.61.722.30.09.6
M.Brosmer
#12
MIN3746.90.06.70.01.6

Offense Projections

J.Jefferson
#18
MIN11000.389.96.29.390.20.5
D.Moore
#2
BUF152.887.65.69.490.40.6
J.Cook
#4
BUF27368.017.61.92.585.60.7
A.Jones
#33
MIN23662.220.32.73.782.50.3
J.Addison
#3
MIN3522.054.03.96.656.00.5
D.Kincaid
#86
BUF3480.049.24.15.649.20.3
K.Coleman
#0
BUF4320.345.83.25.046.00.4
J.Mason
#27
MIN41950.72.70.70.953.40.4
K.Shakir
#10
BUF5640.344.43.75.044.70.2
T.Hockenson
#87
MIN5570.047.85.06.747.80.3
T.Johnson
#26
BUF64612.118.31.51.930.40.2
G.Bartholomew
#86
MIN630.019.32.73.019.30.0
R.Davis
#7
BUF73919.68.20.80.927.80.2
J.Oliver
#84
MIN7380.019.01.72.219.00.2
D.Knox
#88
BUF81030.126.92.43.526.90.3
D.Dallas
#31
MIN873.48.11.01.011.60.0
J.Palmer
#5
BUF9170.024.71.52.924.70.1
J.Jones
#82
MIN930.010.70.30.310.70.0
J.Hawes
#85
BUF10170.011.41.01.411.40.2
J.Jennings
#14
MIN1060.010.51.32.310.50.0

Defense Projections

D.Turner
#15
MIN1211.43.91.415.4
L.Jackson
#94
BUF113.03.03.054.0
A.Van Ginkel
#43
MIN2311.32.31.718.6
T.Parker
#99
BUF231.52.01.07.5
K.Van Noy
#17
MIN341.11.55.326.3
M.Hoecht
#55
BUF331.21.70.38.8
B.Chubb
#9
BUF450.94.81.218.6
C.Chambliss
#32
MIN411.01.01.04.0
G.Rousseau
#15
BUF5660.82.41.210.4
B.Cashman
#51
MIN5220.92.01.615.8
C.Bishop
#24
BUF670.70.71.111.1
T.Ingram-Dawkins
#90
MIN640.82.31.37.3
E.Oliver
#91
BUF7670.51.40.97.6
E.Wilson
#55
MIN7350.71.51.511.5
J.Redmond
#61
MIN8160.50.81.59.6
D.Carter
#90
BUF870.40.91.67.4
L.Rodriguez
#50
MIN9120.41.21.27.7
T.Sanders
#98
BUF930.32.30.34.7
D.Walker
#96
BUF10120.32.01.97.9
Th.Jackson
#26
MIN1050.40.61.49.8