Matty The Bookie
Back to week 9

Published Pick

Mon, Nov 9, 1:20 AM UTC

TB at CHI

Pick
CHI
Confidence
68.4%
Margin
+4.6
Odds
-217

Model Read

The model says CHI wins about 68 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +4.6 margin is written from CHI's side, so it means CHI by about 4.6 points. Odds -217 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CHI: 68.4% win prob | margin +4.6 pts | confidence: 68.4% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+5.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.15; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+5.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.15

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

B.Mayfield
QB
TBQB pass ydsUnder 211.5
74
Solid Lean
114.5 vs 211.5
-97.0
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Johnson
WR
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.6 vs 0.5
+0.1
draftkingsResearch only
K.Gainwell
RB
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Otton
TE
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
K.Raymond
WR
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Hurst
WR
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Stephen Carlson
TE
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Salvon Ahmed
RB
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Walker
WR
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
S.Roush
TE
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Zavion Thomas
WR
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Mayfield
QB
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Godwin
WR
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Williams
QB
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
S.Tucker
RB
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
P.Durham
TE
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Zavion Thomas
WR
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Bauer Sharp
TE
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Ko Kieft
TE
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Kameron Johnson
WR
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Odunze
WR
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Ko Kieft
TE
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Kameron Johnson
WR
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
P.Durham
TE
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
L.Burden
WR
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
J.Walker
WR
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Stephen Carlson
TE
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
67
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
R.Johnson
RB
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
66
Mild Lean
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
S.Roush
TE
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
66
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Loveland
TE
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
Bauer Sharp
TE
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
E.Egbuka
WR
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
Kameron Johnson
WR
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Mayfield
QB
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
K.Gainwell
RB
TBRush ydsOver 22.5
55
Mild Lean
38.0 vs 22.5
+15.5
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
Salvon Ahmed
RB
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
55
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Irving
RB
TBThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
Bauer Sharp
TE
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
53
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
C.Otton
TE
TBReceiving ydsUnder 30.5
53
Low Signal
23.7 vs 30.5
-6.8
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Johnson
WR
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
S.Tucker
RB
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
C.Loveland
TE
CHIReceiving ydsUnder 52.5
52
Low Signal
46.0 vs 52.5
-6.5
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Salvon Ahmed
RB
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
P.Durham
TE
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Zavion Thomas
WR
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Zavion Thomas
WR
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Ko Kieft
TE
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Stephen Carlson
TE
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
L.Burden
WR
CHIReceiving ydsOver 65.5
47
Low Signal
74.2 vs 65.5
+8.7
fanduelO -113 / U -113
B.Mayfield
QB
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
B.Mayfield
QB
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Johnson
WR
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Sweat
DL
CHISacksOver 0.3
44
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.3
+0.2
draftkingsO +176 / U -228
C.Williams
QB
CHIQB pass ydsUnder 243.5
44
Low Signal
224.5 vs 243.5
-19.0
fanduelO -113 / U -113
D.Swift
RB
CHIRush ydsUnder 62.5
43
Low Signal
56.9 vs 62.5
-5.6
fanduelO -113 / U -113
S.Tucker
RB
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Raymond
WR
CHIReceiving ydsOver 15.5
43
Low Signal
23.4 vs 15.5
+7.9
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Hurst
WR
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
42
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
S.Roush
TE
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
41
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Walker
WR
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
J.Simmons
DL
CHISacksOver 0.3
40
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.3
+0.3
draftkingsO +111 / U -140
K.Raymond
WR
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
39
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
A.Anzalone
LB
TBSacksOver 1.0
38
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
A.Robinson
DL
TBSacksOver 1.0
38
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
S.Roush
TE
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Gainwell
RB
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Grady Jarrett
DL
CHISacksOver 1.0
37
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
fanduelResearch only
E.Egbuka
WR
TBLast TdOver 0.5
37
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Otton
TE
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
C.Godwin
WR
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Johnson
WR
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
C.Williams
QB
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DL
TBSacksOver 1.0
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
D.Bush
LB
CHISacksOver 1.0
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
A.Nelson
LB
TBSacksOver 1.0
34
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
Calijah Kancey
DL
TBSacksOver 1.0
34
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
K.Gainwell
RB
TBLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Otton
TE
TBLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Godwin
WR
TBLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
B.Mayfield
QB
TBLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Hurst
WR
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Williams
QB
CHILast TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
L.Burden
WR
CHILast TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
R.Odunze
WR
CHILast TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Hurst
WR
TBReceiving ydsUnder 22.5
32
Low Signal
20.8 vs 22.5
-1.7
fanduelO -113 / U -113
K.Raymond
WR
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Trotter
LB
TBSacksOver 1.0
31
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
T.Johnson
WR
TBReceiving ydsOver 15.5
31
Low Signal
21.1 vs 15.5
+5.6
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
E.Egbuka
WR
TBReceiving ydsUnder 50.5
31
Review First
50.6 vs 50.5
+0.1
fanduelO -113 / U -113
K.Gordon
DB
CHISacksOver 1.0
30
Low Signal
0.4 vs 1.0
-0.6
fanduelResearch only
Elijah Roberts
DL
TBSacksOver 1.0
30
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
D.Hardy
DL
CHISacksOver 1.0
30
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
K.Raymond
WR
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Otton
TE
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Godwin
WR
TBReceiving ydsUnder 31.5
30
Low Signal
32.9 vs 31.5
+1.4
fanduelO -113 / U -113
R.Odunze
WR
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
S.Tucker
RB
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
R.Odunze
WR
CHIReceiving ydsUnder 49.5
29
Low Signal
52.2 vs 49.5
+2.7
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
B.Mayfield
QB
TBQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
28
Low Signal
1.3 vs 1.5
-0.2
draftkingsO +127 / U -163
T.Hurst
WR
TBLast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Raymond
WR
CHILast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Otton
TE
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
B.Irving
RB
TBRush ydsUnder 63.5
26
Low Signal
63.4 vs 63.5
-0.1
fanduelO -113 / U -113
R.Johnson
RB
CHIRush ydsUnder 16.5
26
Low Signal
19.3 vs 16.5
+2.8
fanduelO -113 / U -113
R.Johnson
RB
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
K.Gainwell
RB
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
R.Bain
LB
TBSacksOver 1.0
25
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
D.Swift
RB
CHILast TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
C.Williams
QB
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
R.Odunze
WR
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
C.Loveland
TE
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Hurst
WR
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
C.Godwin
WR
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
R.Johnson
RB
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
A.Booker
DL
CHISacksOver 1.0
23
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
C.Williams
QB
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
C.Loveland
TE
CHILast TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
T.Johnson
WR
TBLast TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
R.Odunze
WR
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Walker
LB
TBSacksOver 1.0
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
R.Johnson
RB
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Gainwell
RB
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
L.Burden
WR
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
C.Loveland
TE
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
A.Muhammad
LB
TBSacksOver 1.0
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
fanduelResearch only
V.Vea
DL
TBSacksOver 0.3
21
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.3
-0.0
draftkingsO +280 / U -369
B.Irving
RB
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
E.Egbuka
WR
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
21
Review First
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
E.Egbuka
WR
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
21
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
C.Loveland
TE
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
L.Burden
WR
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
B.Irving
RB
TBLast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
L.Burden
WR
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Swift
RB
CHIFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Johnson
RB
CHILast TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
C.Godwin
WR
TBFirst TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
B.Irving
RB
TBTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
D.Swift
RB
CHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
E.Egbuka
WR
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Review First
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
D.Swift
RB
CHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
hardrockResearch only
C.Williams
QB
CHIQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
16
Low Signal
1.5 vs 1.5
-0.0
fanduelO -148 / U +114
B.Irving
RB
TBAnytime TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
draftkingsResearch only
D.Swift
RB
CHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
-0.0
fanduelResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

B.Mayfield
#6
TB156230.61.821.10.517.9
C.Williams
#18
CHI139224.41.420.30.125.8
J.Daniels
#10
TB25129.80.815.80.035.6
C.Keenum
#11
CHI22177.51.017.50.05.0
T.Bagent
#17
CHI314117.70.212.20.49.1

Offense Projections

D.Swift
#4
CHI14163.220.72.43.183.90.6
B.Irving
#7
TB13569.721.32.73.191.00.5
C.Godwin
#14
TB21270.762.05.07.162.70.3
K.Monangai
#25
CHI22168.111.51.31.979.70.5
E.Egbuka
#2
TB3230.951.24.07.752.10.4
K.Raymond
#14
CHI384.659.86.17.164.40.3
R.Odunze
#15
CHI4370.456.63.86.957.10.2
K.Gainwell
#1
TB4836.17.61.52.343.80.1
L.Burden
#10
CHI5232.952.13.95.055.00.2
J.McMillan
#11
TB5182.435.52.74.137.90.4
C.Otton
#88
TB666-0.133.43.45.033.30.2
C.Loveland
#84
CHI624-0.146.44.36.346.30.3
C.Kmet
#85
CHI7990.130.63.04.230.60.2
S.Tucker
#44
TB73520.94.30.50.725.20.4
R.Johnson
#23
CHI83916.410.41.51.926.80.2
T.Hurst
#17
TB870.024.01.63.424.00.1
T.Johnson
#15
TB9231.821.71.62.623.60.3
S.Roush
#87
CHI950.013.21.22.013.20.0
P.Durham
#87
TB10210.09.00.91.39.00.1
J.Walker
#9
CHI10110.08.10.71.28.10.4

Defense Projections

J.Simmons
#99
CHI113.03.07.060.0
R.Bain
#3
TB113.03.03.048.0
D.Walker
#51
TB252.64.23.849.2
K.Street
#93
CHI221.51.53.013.5
D.Odeyingbo
#55
CHI371.41.91.613.9
A.Muhammad
#97
TB332.34.32.332.0
D.Hardy
#92
CHI441.33.50.820.0
A.Robinson
#91
TB421.53.01.521.0
D.Thieneman
#31
CHI541.32.51.518.5
J.Trotter
#45
TB521.51.55.032.5
M.Muhammad
#24
CHI631.02.02.013.0
A.Anzalone
#34
TB621.51.53.09.0
A.Booker
#94
CHI7181.01.91.313.5
K.Scott
#22
TB721.51.53.027.0
Y.Diaby
#0
TB8400.71.61.412.1
D.Bush
#12
CHI861.01.53.015.5
A.Nelson
#98
TB9430.61.30.77.7
K.Gordon
#6
CHI9151.01.11.79.5
V.Vea
#50
TB10700.51.30.77.6
M.Sweat
#98
CHI10340.91.91.010.8