DET at MIA

Pick

DET

Confidence

77.6%

Margin

-8.9

Odds

+345

Model Read

The home-team number says MIA wins about 22 out of 100 times. Because the pick is DET, use the other side of that math: DET wins about 78 out of 100 times. The -8.9 margin is written from MIA's side, so it means DET by about 8.9 points. Odds +345 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick DET: 77.6% win prob | margin -8.9 pts | confidence: 77.6% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-5.9e+02, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.2; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-5.9e+02, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.2

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


J.Gibbs RB	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	82 Solid Lean	0.9 vs 0.5 +0.4	hardrock	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Receiving yds	Over 52.5	74 Solid Lean	73.3 vs 52.5 +20.8	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
C.Bell WR	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jared Wayne WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Herman RB	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jalen Tolbert WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Meeks TE	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Conklin TE	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Will Kacmarek TE	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Coleman WR	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
T.Conklin TE	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Seydou Traore TE	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
DeAndre Carter WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Will Kacmarek TE	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jared Wayne WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
T.Conklin TE	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Tay Martin WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Seydou Traore TE	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
M.Willis QB	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
Tay Martin WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
DeAndre Carter WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	64 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jacob Saylors RB	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
S.Vaki RB	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jacob Saylors RB	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jalen Tolbert WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
K.Coleman WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Herman RB	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	Rush yds	Under 98.5	61 Mild Lean	80.7 vs 98.5 -17.8	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
J.Goff QB	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Rush yds	Under 70.5	60 Mild Lean	54.3 vs 70.5 -16.2	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
J.Meeks TE	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	60 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	57 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Kaytron Allen RB	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	56 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	54 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
T.Conklin TE	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	53 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Receiving yds	Over 16.5	53 Low Signal	26.9 vs 16.5 +10.4	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
Jared Wayne WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	52 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jalen Tolbert WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
DeAndre Carter WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Tay Martin WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	49 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Herman RB	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Bell WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jacob Saylors RB	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Seydou Traore TE	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	47 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	47 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
Will Kacmarek TE	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	47 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	Receiving yds	Under 41.5	47 Low Signal	36.9 vs 41.5 -4.6	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
Jacob Saylors RB	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	47 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
S.Vaki RB	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	45 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Will Kacmarek TE	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	44 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Meeks TE	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
K.Coleman WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
A.Hutchinson DL	DET	Sacks	Under 0.8	40 Low Signal	0.6 vs 0.8 -0.2	draftkings	O -126 / U +100
Kaytron Allen RB	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	40 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jordan Phillips DL	MIA	Sacks	Over 1.0	39 Low Signal	0.1 vs 1.0 -0.9	draftkings	Research only
B.Wright TE	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	37 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	36 Low Signal	2.2 vs 1.5 +0.7	fanduel	O -230 / U +172
M.Washington WR	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
S.Vaki RB	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	35 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Barnes LB	DET	Sacks	Over 1.0	34 Low Signal	0.4 vs 1.0 -0.6	draftkings	Research only
Tyleik Williams DL	DET	Sacks	Over 1.0	34 Low Signal	0.1 vs 1.0 -0.9	fanduel	Research only
J.Rodriguez LB	MIA	Sacks	Over 1.0	34 Low Signal	0.1 vs 1.0 -0.9	draftkings	Research only
J.Goff QB	DET	QB pass yds	Over 261.5	34 Low Signal	263.7 vs 261.5 +2.2	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
T.Conklin TE	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
S.Vaki RB	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	33 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Z.Biggers DL	MIA	Sacks	Over 1.0	32 Low Signal	0.1 vs 1.0 -0.9	draftkings	Research only
M.Willis QB	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Bell WR	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Bell WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Z.Sieler DL	MIA	Sacks	Over 1.0	31 Low Signal	0.4 vs 1.0 -0.6	draftkings	Research only
C.Bell WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Receiving yds	Under 48.5	30 Low Signal	49.5 vs 48.5 +1.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Receiving yds	Under 76.5	30 Review First	77.7 vs 76.5 +1.2	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
S.Vaki RB	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	30 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
K.Coleman WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Receiving yds	Under 40.5	29 Low Signal	42.8 vs 40.5 +2.3	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
Kaytron Allen RB	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	29 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
M.Willis QB	MIA	QB pass yds	Over 208.5	27 Low Signal	206.5 vs 208.5 -2.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
C.Robinson LB	MIA	Sacks	Over 0.3	26 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.3 +0.1	draftkings	O +154 / U -197
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Bell WR	MIA	Receiving yds	Under 22.5	25 Low Signal	23.5 vs 22.5 +1.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
M.Washington WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
M.Willis QB	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	24 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
M.Willis QB	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
A.McNeill DL	DET	Sacks	Over 1.0	23 Low Signal	0.2 vs 1.0 -0.8	fanduel	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Receiving yds	Under 40.5	22 Low Signal	40.3 vs 40.5 -0.2	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
J.Williams WR	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	21 Review First	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
S.Gill-Howard DL	DET	Sacks	Over 1.0	20 Low Signal	0.3 vs 1.0 -0.7	fanduel	Research only
I.TeSlaa WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
M.Willis QB	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
M.Willis QB	MIA	Qb Passing Tds	Over 1.5	19 Low Signal	1.5 vs 1.5 +0.0	draftkings	O +132 / U -170
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
K.Coleman WR	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
S.Vaki RB	DET	Rush yds	Over 16.5	19 Review First	20.9 vs 16.5 +4.4	fanduel	O -113 / U -113
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	fanduel	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	17 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
S.LaPorta TE	DET	First Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.St. Brown WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Review First	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	draftkings	Research only
J.Williams WR	DET	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.5 vs 0.5 -0.0	fanduel	Research only
J.Gibbs RB	DET	Last Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	12 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Uche LB	MIA	Sacks	Under 0.3	12 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.3 +0.0	draftkings	O +223 / U -290
C.Douglas WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	11 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


J.Goff #16	DET	1	89	263.1	1.8	23.3	0.4	3.3
M.Willis #2	MIA	1	7	282.9	1.0	23.7	0.0	48.1

Offense Projections

Market


J.Gibbs #0	DET	1	56	77.7	30.6	3.8	4.9	108.3	1.0
D.Achane #28	MIA	1	47	67.7	28.2	3.8	4.7	96.0	0.7
A.St. Brown #14	DET	2	89	2.3	76.7	6.7	9.2	79.0	0.6
R.Miller #11	MIA	2	3	0.0	87.0	2.3	3.0	87.0	1.0
J.Williams #1	DET	3	57	2.5	51.8	3.1	5.0	54.2	0.4
C.Douglas #7	MIA	3	4	0.0	84.8	5.0	7.3	84.8	0.5
S.LaPorta #87	DET	4	49	0.1	50.4	4.4	6.0	50.6	0.5
G.Dulcich #85	MIA	4	15	-0.5	45.4	3.8	4.9	44.9	0.1
I.TeSlaa #18	DET	5	20	0.0	21.8	1.3	2.4	21.8	0.3
C.Bell #18	MIA	5	7	3.4	34.3	2.4	5.3	37.7	0.0
M.Washington #6	MIA	6	36	5.1	30.2	3.3	4.8	35.4	0.2
J.Meeks #13	DET	6	1	0.0	16.0	2.0	2.0	16.0	0.0
B.Wright #89	DET	7	51	0.0	13.0	1.5	1.9	13.0	0.2
O.Gordon #0	MIA	7	23	26.4	2.0	0.6	0.8	28.4	0.3
J.Wright #5	MIA	8	28	21.2	1.9	0.3	0.6	23.1	0.1
S.Vaki #33	DET	8	19	7.3	4.9	0.4	0.5	12.3	0.0
T.Kennedy #85	DET	9	23	0.0	10.0	0.8	1.3	10.0	0.0
D.Herman #34	MIA	9	2	0.0	18.0	1.0	3.0	18.0	0.0
K.Coleman #21	MIA	10	6	0.0	13.7	1.3	3.5	13.7	0.3
T.Conklin #83	DET	10	2	0.0	5.5	1.0	1.0	5.5	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


J.Uche #9	MIA	1	5	1.2	3.0	2.4	22.8
D.Wonnum #98	DET	1	3	5.7	8.0	4.7	73.3
C.Robinson #44	MIA	2	20	1.1	2.7	1.2	14.6
R.McCreary #21	DET	2	1	3.0	3.0	3.0	36.0
M.Herring #90	MIA	3	3	1.0	2.0	3.0	18.0
J.Rolder #41	DET	3	2	2.0	2.0	5.5	52.0
W.Gay #40	MIA	4	3	0.7	0.7	1.0	6.3
C.Clark #36	DET	4	2	1.5	3.5	1.5	51.0
Z.Sieler #92	MIA	5	73	0.6	1.3	1.1	9.2
C.Izien #5	DET	5	2	1.5	0.0	6.0	13.5
K.Grant #78	MIA	6	6	0.3	0.8	0.3	1.0
S.Gill-Howard #50	DET	6	5	1.4	3.2	0.8	18.6
A.Hutchinson #97	DET	7	52	1.1	3.0	1.2	16.0
J.Brooks #20	MIA	7	24	0.3	0.5	1.3	5.8
A.McNeill #54	DET	8	34	0.8	1.7	1.2	12.8
Z.Biggers #93	MIA	8	6	0.3	1.7	0.2	2.8
D.Barnes #55	DET	9	28	0.6	0.8	1.1	5.5
R.McGraw #59	MIA	9	1	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0
T.Nowaske #53	DET	10	8	0.4	1.1	0.5	3.1
J.Rodriguez #10	MIA	10	2	0.0	1.5	4.5	12.0

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