Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM UTC

NYG at PHI

Pick
NYG
Confidence
51.5%
Margin
-1.3
Odds
+106

Model Read

The home-team number says PHI wins about 49 out of 100 times. Because the pick is NYG, use the other side of that math: NYG wins about 51 out of 100 times. The -1.3 margin is written from PHI's side, so it means NYG by about 1.3 points. Odds +106 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick NYG: 51.5% win prob | margin -1.3 pts | confidence: 51.5% away | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+23, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.4, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.3 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+23, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.4, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.3; oppose none

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Joe Milton
QB
PHIQB pass ydsUnder 183.5
74
Solid Lean
66.4 vs 183.5
-117.1
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Lemon
WR
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
E.Mitchell
RB
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Thomas Fidone II
TE
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Jaydon Blue
RB
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Chris Manhertz
TE
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Johnny Mundt
TE
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Elijah Moore
WR
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Phil Mafah
RB
NYGThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Jalin Hyatt
WR
NYGThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Grant Calcaterra
TE
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Hollywood Brown
WR
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Goedert
TE
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Johnny Mundt
TE
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
T.Johnson
TE
NYGThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
Jalin Hyatt
WR
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Fields
WR
NYGThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Darius Cooper
WR
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
I.Likely
TE
NYGThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
Joe Milton
QB
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Grant Calcaterra
TE
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Phil Mafah
RB
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Patrick Ricard
RB
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Nabers
WR
NYGThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Patrick Ricard
RB
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Chris Manhertz
TE
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGQB pass ydsUnder 210.5
69
Mild Lean
149.0 vs 210.5
-61.5
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
D.Singletary
RB
NYGRush ydsUnder 55.5
68
Mild Lean
28.1 vs 55.5
-27.4
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Darnell Mooney
WR
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Johnny Mundt
TE
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Jalin Hyatt
WR
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
68
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
T.Johnson
TE
NYGReceiving ydsOver 8.5
68
Mild Lean
23.9 vs 8.5
+15.4
fanduelO -113 / U -113
M.Nabers
WR
NYGReceiving ydsOver 72.5
65
Mild Lean
87.1 vs 72.5
+14.6
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Charlie Jones
WR
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
E.Stowers
TE
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Hollywood Brown
WR
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Grant Calcaterra
TE
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Elijah Moore
WR
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
62
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Thomas Fidone II
TE
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
61
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Grant Calcaterra
TE
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Chris Manhertz
TE
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Jalin Hyatt
WR
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
E.Stowers
TE
PHIReceiving ydsOver 5.5
59
Mild Lean
22.1 vs 5.5
+16.6
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Hollywood Brown
WR
PHIReceiving ydsOver 14.5
59
Mild Lean
26.9 vs 14.5
+12.4
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Patrick Ricard
RB
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Johnny Mundt
TE
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Johnson
TE
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
E.Stowers
TE
PHILast TdOver 0.5
57
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Fields
WR
NYGReceiving ydsOver 23.5
56
Mild Lean
36.8 vs 23.5
+13.3
fanduelO -113 / U -113
S.Barkley
RB
PHIThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
53
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
Elijah Moore
WR
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Darius Cooper
WR
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Charlie Jones
WR
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
51
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Thomas Fidone II
TE
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
E.Stowers
TE
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
50
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Singletary
RB
NYGThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelResearch only
Joe Milton
QB
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Jaydon Blue
RB
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Jaydon Blue
RB
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
M.Fields
WR
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
E.Stowers
TE
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
46
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Darius Cooper
WR
PHIReceiving ydsUnder 27.5
46
Low Signal
21.4 vs 27.5
-6.1
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Hollywood Brown
WR
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
S.Barkley
RB
PHIRush ydsUnder 53.5
44
Review First
47.0 vs 53.5
-6.5
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Phil Mafah
RB
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Charlie Jones
WR
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
42
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Darnell Mooney
WR
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
39
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Shelby Harris
DL
NYGSacksOver 1.0
39
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
Darnell Mooney
WR
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
38
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
N.Smith
LB
PHISacksOver 0.3
38
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.3
+0.2
draftkingsO +253 / U -332
M.Lemon
WR
PHIReceiving ydsUnder 39.5
38
Low Signal
35.9 vs 39.5
-3.6
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Johnson
TE
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
E.Mitchell
RB
PHILast TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Hollywood Brown
WR
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Arnold Ebiketie
LB
PHISacksOver 1.0
36
Low Signal
0.1 vs 1.0
-0.9
draftkingsResearch only
E.Mitchell
RB
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
35
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Z.Baun
LB
PHISacksOver 1.0
35
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGLast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Goedert
TE
PHILast TdOver 0.5
34
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
33
Low Signal
0.7 vs 1.5
-0.8
draftkingsO +178 / U -230
I.Likely
TE
NYGReceiving ydsUnder 43.5
33
Low Signal
43.1 vs 43.5
-0.4
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Darnell Mooney
WR
NYGReceiving ydsOver 14.5
33
Low Signal
20.4 vs 14.5
+5.9
fanduelO -113 / U -113
Joe Milton
QB
PHILast TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Lemon
WR
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Goedert
TE
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
A.Carter
LB
NYGSacksUnder 0.3
31
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.3
+0.0
draftkingsO +125 / U -158
M.Fields
WR
NYGLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Phil Mafah
RB
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
E.Mitchell
RB
PHIRush ydsOver 24.5
28
Low Signal
29.9 vs 24.5
+5.4
fanduelO -113 / U -113
T.Johnson
TE
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Davis
DL
PHISacksOver 1.0
28
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
fanduelResearch only
K.Thibodeaux
LB
NYGSacksOver 1.0
28
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
Joe Milton
QB
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Alexander
DL
NYGSacksOver 1.0
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
Jonathan Greenard
LB
PHISacksOver 1.0
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
M.Lemon
WR
PHILast TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
I.Likely
TE
NYGLast TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
Darnell Mooney
WR
NYGLast TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Johnson
TE
NYGLast TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
I.Likely
TE
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
M.Ojomo
DL
PHISacksOver 1.0
26
Low Signal
0.3 vs 1.0
-0.7
draftkingsResearch only
J.Carter
DL
PHISacksUnder 0.3
26
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.3
+0.1
draftkingsO +152 / U -194
Johnny Mundt
TE
PHILast TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Fields
WR
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
M.Fields
WR
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Singletary
RB
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Goedert
TE
PHIReceiving ydsUnder 35.5
25
Low Signal
40.2 vs 35.5
+4.7
fanduelO -113 / U -113
D.Singletary
RB
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
S.Barkley
RB
PHILast TdOver 0.5
24
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Nabers
WR
NYGTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
A.Reese
LB
NYGSacksOver 1.0
23
Low Signal
0.2 vs 1.0
-0.8
draftkingsResearch only
Phil Mafah
RB
NYGLast TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Hunt
LB
PHISacksOver 1.0
23
Review First
0.4 vs 1.0
-0.6
fanduelResearch only
M.Lemon
WR
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Hollywood Brown
WR
PHILast TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
E.Mitchell
RB
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
M.Lemon
WR
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
M.Nabers
WR
NYGLast TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Darius Cooper
WR
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Goedert
TE
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Singletary
RB
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
E.Mitchell
RB
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Joe Milton
QB
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
I.Likely
TE
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
M.Nabers
WR
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
D.Singletary
RB
NYGLast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
Darius Cooper
WR
PHILast TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
M.Nabers
WR
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
I.Likely
TE
NYGAnytime TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
draftkingsResearch only
Joe Milton
QB
PHIQb Passing TdsUnder 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.4 vs 0.5
-0.1
fanduelO -215 / U +162
D.Goedert
TE
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
S.Barkley
RB
PHITwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
16
Review First
0.5 vs 0.5
-0.0
draftkingsResearch only
S.Barkley
RB
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
16
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.McCarthy
QB
NYGFirst TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
S.Barkley
RB
PHIAnytime TdOver 0.5
15
Review First
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
draftkingsResearch only
Darius Cooper
WR
PHIFirst TdOver 0.5
13
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Hurts
#1
PHI197194.11.216.80.437.7
J.Winston
#19
NYG19169.31.014.10.08.1
T.McKee
#16
PHI29137.20.814.00.03.7
J.McCarthy
#18
NYG23165.00.310.30.09.7
J.Dart
#6
NYG316157.61.115.10.033.8
A.Dalton
#13
PHI310.00.00.00.00.0

Offense Projections

O.Beckham
#9
NYG1601.291.36.510.492.50.7
S.Barkley
#26
PHI13890.015.62.02.7105.60.7
D.Smith
#6
PHI2840.063.44.97.163.50.4
M.Nabers
#1
NYG2260.180.06.710.680.10.4
Z.Ertz
#86
PHI31250.050.54.77.050.50.3
C.Skattebo
#44
NYG31459.120.22.53.279.40.6
T.Tracy
#29
NYG43941.916.12.02.857.90.3
D.Wicks
#13
PHI460.047.33.25.347.30.2
D.Goedert
#88
PHI51120.044.13.95.344.10.3
I.Likely
#9
NYG570.056.45.99.056.40.7
D.Slayton
#11
NYG61030.043.12.95.143.10.2
D.Pierce
#39
PHI6332.04.72.33.736.70.7
N.Harris
#23
NYG7539.62.00.40.441.60.0
E.Mitchell
#49
PHI7222.513.03.55.035.50.0
D.Singletary
#26
NYG83626.59.01.31.435.50.3
M.Lemon
#9
PHI88-0.631.43.95.630.80.1
T.Bigsby
#8
PHI91824.22.30.30.426.50.2
M.Fields
#88
NYG970.035.42.34.335.40.1
T.Johnson
#84
NYG10290.031.52.74.331.50.2
E.Stowers
#87
PHI1020.026.51.52.026.50.0

Defense Projections

N.Smith
#3
PHI1260.91.61.010.2
T.Edmunds
#49
NYG132.33.73.026.0
J.Carter
#98
PHI2330.81.41.315.1
B.Okoye
#99
NYG221.51.53.025.5
A.Reese
#52
NYG351.21.43.416.4
J.Campbell
#11
PHI340.81.01.32.3
B.Burns
#0
NYG4310.81.81.314.5
J.Trotter
#54
PHI430.72.00.31.5
D.Alexander
#91
NYG570.81.30.67.5
B.Young
#94
PHI540.61.00.84.8
J.Davis
#90
PHI6180.51.00.85.2
A.Carter
#3
NYG6160.72.90.910.2
K.Thibodeaux
#5
NYG7390.61.50.89.0
K.Ringo
#7
PHI720.50.50.51.0
M.Ojomo
#97
PHI8170.31.70.95.3
A.Phillips
#22
NYG8140.51.01.59.0
J.Hunt
#58
PHI9240.31.80.55.0
Z.Barnes
#46
NYG920.50.51.05.5
Z.Baun
#53
PHI10210.30.91.76.7
J.Pinnock
#25
NYG10140.50.81.17.1