Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC

ARI at DAL

Pick
DAL
Confidence
64.0%
Margin
+7.8
Odds
-178

Model Read

The model says DAL wins about 64 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +7.8 margin is written from DAL's side, so it means DAL by about 7.8 points. Odds -178 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick DAL: 64.0% win prob | margin +7.8 pts | confidence: 64.0% home | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-6.2e+02, indoor_diff=-1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-6.2e+02, indoor_diff=-1; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05

Player Props

Game Prop Board

C.Lamb
WR
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2250 / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +550 / U -HighOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +600 / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +500 / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -250 / U -HighOK
C.Lamb
WR
DALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +475 / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Pickens
WR
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +130 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Pickens
WR
DALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +130 / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +100 / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO +180 / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALRb Rushing Tds0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +180 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Lamb
WR
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Lamb
WR
DALAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +100 / U -HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

C.Lamb
WR
DALFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Lamb
WR
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Lamb
WR
DALReceiving yds70.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALQb Passing Tds2.2---O - / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALQB pass yds246.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Prescott
QB
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIQb Passing Tds1.7---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIQB pass yds242.9---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sweat
LB
ARISacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIReceiving yds56.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Williams
RB
DALRush yds70.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Stills
DL
ARISacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Pickens
WR
DALReceiving yds65.5---O - / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIReceiving yds50.3---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ferguson
TE
DALReceiving yds19.8---O - / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIReceiving yds31.4---O - / U -HighOK
K.Clark
DL
DALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
R.Flournoy
WR
DALReceiving yds39.3---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIRush yds49.3---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Robinson
DL
ARISacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
Q.Williams
DL
DALSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIRb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIRush yds28.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALRush yds21.7---O - / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Goodson
RB
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Ezeiruaku
LB
DALSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
K.Turpin
WR
DALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
K.Turpin
WR
DALReceiving yds13.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Collins
LB
ARISacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
B.Browning
LB
ARISacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARIAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARIReceiving yds21.4---O - / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
L.Schoonmaker
TE
DALReceiving yds14.3---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALRush yds6.4---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
H.Luepke
RB
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Bell
DB
DALSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Baker
DB
ARISacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
B.Spann-Ford
TE
DALReceiving yds15.3---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brooks
WR
ARIAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Brooks
WR
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Brooks
WR
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Brooks
WR
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Brooks
WR
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Brooks
WR
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Brooks
WR
ARIReceiving yds19.9---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Overshown
LB
DALSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Burch
LB
ARISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Houston
LB
DALSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Love
RB
ARIAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Love
RB
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Love
RB
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Love
RB
ARIRb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Love
RB
ARIRush yds56.5---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Love
RB
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Love
RB
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
S.James
LB
DALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
L.Collier
DL
ARISacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Steward
DB
DALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
W.Nolen
DL
ARISacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Bland
DB
DALSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
Ma.Wilson
LB
ARISacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIReceiving yds14.2---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hooker
DB
DALSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIReceiving yds22.8---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

D.Prescott
#4
DAL1146259.21.823.00.615.0
J.Brissett
#7
ARI121244.41.724.70.012.7

Offense Projections

C.Lamb
#88
DAL11013.879.96.29.183.70.5
T.McBride
#85
ARI1660.059.86.28.259.80.3
J.Williams
#33
DAL22372.710.42.43.283.21.0
J.Love
#4
ARI2549.07.22.22.856.20.4
Mi.Wilson
#14
ARI3530.347.13.86.147.40.3
G.Pickens
#3
DAL3240.079.85.48.179.80.5
J.Ferguson
#87
DAL4660.032.53.85.132.50.3
K.Bourne
#17
ARI460.039.04.26.039.00.0
R.Flournoy
#19
DAL5290.930.42.73.831.20.2
Z.Knight
#20
ARI51626.812.11.72.438.90.3
T.Allgeier
#22
ARI6725.112.02.32.437.10.1
T.Goodson
#32
DAL6426.5-0.20.81.826.20.0
K.Turpin
#9
DAL7536.018.71.42.224.70.2
R.Virgil
#82
ARI710.029.02.05.029.00.0
E.Higgins
#84
ARI8460.016.91.72.016.90.1
L.Schoonmaker
#86
DAL8380.012.31.42.012.30.1
H.Luepke
#30
DAL9393.76.40.81.010.10.1
T.Quitoriano
#47
ARI910.015.02.02.015.02.0
B.Spann-Ford
#89
DAL10290.08.90.91.48.90.0
J.Brooks
#86
ARI10100.013.20.82.313.20.0

Defense Projections

J.Sweat
#10
ARI1121.01.41.113.5
D.Overshown
#0
DAL160.80.81.512.7
J.Houston
#41
DAL2100.61.30.69.3
J.Burch
#52
ARI211.01.01.016.0
D.Stills
#55
ARI3130.61.00.89.1
S.James
#50
DAL340.41.30.52.5
K.Clark
#97
DAL490.31.00.75.6
L.Collier
#91
ARI470.51.10.65.2
W.Nolen
#97
ARI550.41.01.06.2
R.Steward
#27
DAL550.30.41.05.2
Q.Williams
#92
DAL660.31.50.53.8
D.Robinson
#56
ARI650.40.61.03.8
Z.Collins
#25
ARI7360.30.80.97.3
D.Ezeiruaku
#6
DAL7120.21.00.84.2
B.Browning
#5
ARI8120.30.70.74.5
D.Bland
#26
DAL870.00.41.02.1
Ma.Wilson
#1
ARI9100.30.80.75.3
M.Bell
#14
DAL950.00.20.82.6
B.Baker
#3
ARI10460.20.41.14.8
M.Hooker
#24
DAL10100.00.10.91.8