Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC

ATL at TB

Pick
ATL
Confidence
64.9%
Margin
-2.6
Odds
+185

Model Read

The home-team number says TB wins about 35 out of 100 times. Because the pick is ATL, use the other side of that math: ATL wins about 65 out of 100 times. The -2.6 margin is written from TB's side, so it means ATL by about 2.6 points. Odds +185 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick ATL: 64.9% win prob | margin -2.6 pts | confidence: 64.9% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.15; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.15

Player Props

Game Prop Board

B.Mayfield
QB
TBQB pass yds244.7216.5+28.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLQB pass yds254.2232.5+21.7fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLReceiving yds35.023.5+11.5draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLReceiving yds71.577.5-6.0draftkingsO -114 / U -110HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLReceiving yds34.135.5-1.4draftkingsO -115 / U -109HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBRush yds71.270.5+0.7draftkingsO -113 / U -111HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1200 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Hooper
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +13000 / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +19000 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +15000 / U -MediumOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +18000 / U -MediumOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +13000 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Irving
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -MediumOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -MediumOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
E.Egbuka
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -MediumOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +400 / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Gainwell
RB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +900 / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +310 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Woerner
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighFallback Line
Z.Branch
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +700 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Blair
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumFallback Line
P.Durham
TE
TBAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +700 / U -MediumOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +295 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Mayfield
QB
TBAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Otton
TE
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +320 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Penix
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1300 / U -MediumOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighInjury Review
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Hurst
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -MediumFallback Line
T.Hurst
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -MediumOK
C.Otton
TE
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +320 / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +270 / U -HighFallback Line
A.Hooper
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Dotson
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Johnson
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +475 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Gainwell
RB
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +295 / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +250 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Godwin
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +270 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds1.21.5-0.3draftkingsO +124 / U -159MediumOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +140 / U -HighFallback Line
D.London
WR
ATLAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +140 / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBQb Passing Tds1.71.5+0.2fanduelO -112 / U -118HighOK
E.Egbuka
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +185 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Pitts
TE
ATLAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +250 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +135 / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +475 / U -HighFallback Line
S.Tucker
RB
TBAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
E.Egbuka
WR
TBAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +185 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Irving
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO -130 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Irving
RB
TBAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO -130 / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0hardrockO +135 / U -HighInjury Review

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

A.Winfield
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Irving
RB
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Mayfield
QB
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Bi.Robinson
RB
ATLRush yds68.7---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Rush
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLQB pass yds157.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Rush
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Nelson
LB
TBSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
B.Dorlus
DL
ATLSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBReceiving yds42.6---O - / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.London
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Egbuka
WR
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBReceiving yds46.8---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Dotson
WR
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Dotson
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Vea
DL
TBSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pitts
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds1.3---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLQB pass yds107.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tagovailoa
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Y.Diaby
LB
TBSacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLRb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLRush yds27.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
Br.Robinson
RB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Otton
TE
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBReceiving yds25.6---O - / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Hooper
TE
ATLReceiving yds20.7---O - / U -HighOK
J.Bates
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Parrish
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBRush yds22.4---O - / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
O.Zaccheaus
WR
ATLReceiving yds15.4---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Dennis
LB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBRush yds18.5---O - / U -HighOK
S.Tucker
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Woerner
TE
ATLReceiving yds11.9---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBReceiving yds29.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Smith
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBReceiving yds11.7---O - / U -HighOK
Z.McCollum
DB
TBSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Harrison
DL
ATLSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBQb Passing Tds1.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBQB pass yds104.4---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Penix
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Bowman
DB
ATLSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.McMillan
WR
TBAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBFirst Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBReceiving yds29.5---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
L.London
DL
ATLSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
C.Kancey
DL
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Deablo
LB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
A.Terrell
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
E.Roberts
DL
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBReceiving yds25.5---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hughes
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Branch
WR
ATLReceiving yds14.5---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Blair
WR
ATLReceiving yds10.7---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLQb Passing Tds0.2---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLQB pass yds129.8---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Strand
QB
ATLTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Robinson
DB
ATLSacks0.1---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

B.Mayfield
#6
TB155234.81.821.50.518.0
C.Rush
#13
ATL12229.01.022.00.020.0
M.Penix
#9
ATL219217.71.217.80.24.4
J.Daniels
#10
TB25129.80.815.80.035.6
J.Strand
#18
ATL3159.00.08.00.016.0
T.Tagovailoa
#1
ATL4134.00.02.00.00.0

Offense Projections

Bi.Robinson
#7
ATL15888.135.54.15.4123.60.8
B.Irving
#7
TB13466.722.02.83.288.70.5
C.Godwin
#14
TB21260.762.55.17.263.20.3
D.London
#5
ATL2690.171.75.38.471.80.3
E.Egbuka
#2
TB3230.951.24.07.752.10.4
J.Dotson
#4
ATL370.048.12.65.448.10.4
K.Pitts
#8
ATL4850.044.43.65.644.30.2
J.McMillan
#11
TB4182.435.52.74.137.90.4
C.Otton
#88
TB566-0.133.43.45.033.30.2
Br.Robinson
#15
ATL5635.25.00.81.040.20.7
A.Hooper
#81
ATL6610.038.53.74.838.50.3
K.Gainwell
#1
TB6721.38.71.72.430.00.1
O.Zaccheaus
#14
ATL7500.227.22.03.427.40.2
T.Hurst
#17
TB760.028.01.83.828.00.2
S.Tucker
#44
TB83421.54.50.60.726.00.4
Z.Branch
#17
ATL871.113.62.12.614.70.0
T.Johnson
#15
TB9221.922.71.72.724.60.3
C.Woerner
#89
ATL9190.26.10.91.56.30.0
P.Durham
#87
TB10210.09.00.91.39.00.1
C.Blair
#19
ATL1090.03.20.31.03.20.0

Defense Projections

A.Winfield
#31
TB1330.60.90.77.6
Z.Harrison
#96
ATL1100.81.11.27.2
A.Nelson
#98
TB2400.51.10.77.5
B.Dorlus
#54
ATL2110.81.01.07.6
V.Vea
#50
TB3660.51.20.77.7
B.Bowman
#33
ATL320.81.00.510.0
Y.Diaby
#0
TB4360.51.31.18.7
L.London
#94
ATL480.60.51.16.9
C.Kancey
#94
TB5240.51.30.96.7
D.Deablo
#0
ATL550.20.41.02.4
J.Bates
#3
ATL680.10.50.82.0
J.Parrish
#25
TB650.40.61.49.4
A.Terrell
#24
ATL7140.10.11.02.1
E.Roberts
#95
TB760.30.80.32.2
S.Dennis
#8
TB8120.30.70.98.6
M.Hughes
#21
ATL860.00.01.32.0
T.Smith
#23
TB9110.20.60.95.5
J.Robinson
#34
ATL910.00.00.00.0
Z.McCollum
#27
TB1030.00.01.01.7