Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 1, 9:25 PM UTC

NE at MIA

Pick
NE
Confidence
81.8%
Margin
-3.9
Odds
+450

Model Read

The home-team number says MIA wins about 18 out of 100 times. Because the pick is NE, use the other side of that math: NE wins about 82 out of 100 times. The -3.9 margin is written from MIA's side, so it means NE by about 3.9 points. Odds +450 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick NE: 81.8% win prob | margin -3.9 pts | confidence: 81.8% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-2.8e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-2.8e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05

Player Props

Game Prop Board

M.Willis
QB
MIAQB pass yds156.1185.5-29.4fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAReceiving yds42.028.5+13.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIAReceiving yds51.339.5+11.8fanduelO -114 / U -114LowOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NERush yds37.346.5-9.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEReceiving yds47.656.5-8.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEReceiving yds38.131.5+6.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NERush yds31.425.5+5.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIAReceiving yds21.016.5+4.5fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
D.Maye
QB
NEQB pass yds241.8237.5+4.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIAReceiving yds37.240.5-3.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIARush yds14.216.5-2.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
O.Gordon
RB
MIARush yds58.960.5-1.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NEReceiving yds39.039.5-0.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
D.Maye
QB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Williams
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +900 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Tolbert
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowOK
M.Washington
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -MediumOK
E.Raridon
TE
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -MediumOK
D.Douglas
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
C.Kiner
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -MediumOK
D.Maye
QB
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Douglas
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -LowOK
H.Henry
TE
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1900 / U -HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1400 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Williams
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -MediumOK
E.Raridon
TE
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -MediumOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -LowOK
H.Henry
TE
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
WR
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -MediumOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +500 / U -HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +700 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2000 / U -HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
C.Kiner
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -MediumFallback Line
M.Washington
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +330 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Wright
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Bell
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Bell
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -MediumOK
J.Wright
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +410 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +410 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Willis
QB
MIAQb Passing Tds0.90.5+0.4fanduelO -215 / U +158HighOK
K.Williams
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Washington
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +330 / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +2700 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
WR
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Douglas
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +310 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Douglas
WR
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +310 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +310 / U -HighFallback Line
H.Henry
TE
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +200 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Douglas
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +425 / U -LowOK
D.Maye
QB
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +340 / U -HighOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +425 / U -MediumFallback Line
E.Raridon
TE
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +425 / U -MediumOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
H.Henry
TE
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +200 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +310 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +225 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +140 / U -HighFallback Line
O.Gordon
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +130 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +140 / U -HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +130 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Stevenson
RB
NEAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0hardrockO +100 / U -HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NEQb Passing Tds1.51.5+0.0draftkingsO -132 / U +103HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

R.Doubs
WR
NEAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Doubs
WR
NEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Doubs
WR
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Doubs
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Doubs
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Doubs
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Doubs
WR
NEReceiving yds37.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIARush yds46.8---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
E.Ponder
LB
NESacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
C.Barmore
DL
NESacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
R.Miller
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIAReceiving yds19.9---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
Z.Sieler
DL
MIASacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
M.Hollins
WR
NEAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEReceiving yds38.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
LB
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
R.Spillane
LB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
Jo.Phillips
DL
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
Ma.Jones
DB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Elliss
LB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAReceiving yds18.8---O - / U -HighOK
K.Williams
WR
NEReceiving yds20.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Robinson
LB
MIASacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Pettus
DB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.DeVito
QB
NEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEQb Passing Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEQB pass yds52.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
W.Gay
LB
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Williams
DL
NESacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Biggers
DL
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Bell
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Grant
DL
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Gonzalez
DB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEReceiving yds29.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Marshall
DB
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NERush yds27.5---O - / U -MediumOK
L.Taylor
DL
NESacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Pharms
DL
NESacks0.1---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
D.Herman
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIARush yds3.5---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

D.Maye
#10
NE137251.61.721.40.332.9
M.Willis
#2
MIA16294.80.824.20.055.8
T.DeVito
#16
NE2160.00.06.00.04.0

Offense Projections

R.Doubs
#87
NE160.077.34.37.377.30.8
C.Douglas
#7
MIA130.098.75.37.798.70.7
R.Stevenson
#38
NE27753.520.62.83.674.10.5
D.Achane
#28
MIA24767.728.23.84.796.00.7
T.Henderson
#32
NE32354.611.81.82.366.40.5
R.Miller
#84
MIA330.087.02.33.087.01.0
M.Hollins
#13
NE4180.242.23.44.742.40.1
G.Dulcich
#85
MIA414-0.545.63.84.845.10.1
H.Henry
#85
NE5850.040.03.55.040.00.3
C.Bell
#18
MIA564.334.82.25.339.20.0
D.Douglas
#3
NE6531.537.13.45.038.60.2
M.Washington
#6
MIA6355.329.93.34.835.20.1
O.Gordon
#0
MIA72224.52.10.60.826.50.4
E.Raridon
#82
NE760.035.32.53.335.30.5
J.Wright
#5
MIA82721.91.90.30.623.80.1
A.Brown
#1
NE830.033.73.06.733.70.0
C.Kiner
#9
NE9725.73.60.40.429.30.0
D.Herman
#34
MIA920.018.01.03.018.00.0
K.Williams
#18
NE10210.119.00.91.919.20.2
J.Tolbert
#1
MIA1020.011.00.52.011.00.0

Defense Projections

C.Robinson
#44
MIA1150.71.40.87.5
D.Pettus
#24
NE121.01.01.019.0
E.Ponder
#91
NE250.81.00.86.4
W.Gay
#40
MIA230.70.71.06.3
Z.Sieler
#92
MIA3680.51.10.98.1
C.Barmore
#90
NE3350.41.30.76.3
M.Williams
#97
NE490.40.90.96.1
Z.Biggers
#93
MIA440.41.00.34.1
K.Grant
#78
MIA560.30.80.31.0
J.Pharms
#98
NE560.31.00.84.7
J.Brooks
#20
MIA6220.30.51.15.8
C.Gonzalez
#0
NE640.30.50.84.5
R.Spillane
#14
NE740.30.01.03.0
J.Marshall
#4
MIA720.00.50.50.5
Ma.Jones
#25
NE890.20.21.24.1
Jo.Phillips
#94
MIA820.00.50.50.5
C.Elliss
#53
NE970.21.10.13.2
L.Taylor
#93
NE1010.01.00.00.0