Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 15, 6:00 PM UTC

BUF at NYJ

Pick
BUF
Confidence
79.2%
Margin
-6.5
Odds
+381

Model Read

The home-team number says NYJ wins about 21 out of 100 times. Because the pick is BUF, use the other side of that math: BUF wins about 79 out of 100 times. The -6.5 margin is written from NYJ's side, so it means BUF by about 6.5 points. Odds +381 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick BUF: 79.2% win prob | margin -6.5 pts | confidence: 79.2% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-5.8e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.35, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.35; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-5.8e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.35, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.35

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

K.Sadiq
TE
NYJThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
T.Johnson
RB
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Taylor
TE
NYJThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Andrew Beck
RB
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Jeremy Ruckert
TE
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
G.Smith
QB
NYJThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Greg Dortch
WR
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Malik McClain
WR
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Keleki Latu
TE
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Greg Dortch
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Kene Nwangwu
RB
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Jelani Woods
TE
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
G.Smith
QB
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
I.Davis
RB
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
R.Davis
RB
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Hawes
TE
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
B.Allen
RB
NYJThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Kene Nwangwu
RB
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Jeremy Ruckert
TE
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
69
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
B.Allen
RB
NYJRush ydsOver 34.5
68
Mild Lean
58.1 vs 34.5
+23.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
D.Moore
WR
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
Andrew Beck
RB
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
65
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Malik McClain
WR
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
64
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
O.Cooper
WR
NYJThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
G.Wilson
WR
NYJThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
fanduelResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
64
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
O.Cooper
WR
NYJReceiving ydsOver 31.5
64
Review First
60.2 vs 31.5
+28.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Jelani Woods
TE
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
I.Williams
WR
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
63
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
I.Davis
RB
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
R.Davis
RB
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
60
Mild Lean
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
I.Davis
RB
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
59
Mild Lean
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
G.Smith
QB
NYJQB pass ydsUnder 217.5
56
Mild Lean
190.1 vs 217.5
-27.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Jelani Woods
TE
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
55
Mild Lean
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Kene Nwangwu
RB
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
G.Smith
QB
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
T.Johnson
RB
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
54
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Andrew Beck
RB
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
Jeremy Ruckert
TE
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
B.Hall
RB
NYJThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
52
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Greg Dortch
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
I.Williams
WR
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
51
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFReceiving ydsOver 11.5
50
Low Signal
20.7 vs 11.5
+9.2
fanduelO -114 / U -114
G.Smith
QB
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Hawes
TE
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
49
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFReceiving ydsUnder 44.5
49
Low Signal
39.9 vs 44.5
-4.6
fanduelO -114 / U -114
M.Taylor
TE
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
48
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
M.Taylor
TE
NYJReceiving ydsOver 15.5
48
Low Signal
25.9 vs 15.5
+10.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Greg Dortch
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
47
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
45
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
O.Cooper
WR
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
45
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFReceiving ydsOver 28.5
44
Low Signal
36.2 vs 28.5
+7.7
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Keleki Latu
TE
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Malik McClain
WR
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Keleki Latu
TE
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
43
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
G.Wilson
WR
NYJReceiving ydsUnder 61.5
43
Review First
58.3 vs 61.5
-3.2
fanduelO -114 / U -114
R.Davis
RB
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
41
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFReceiving ydsUnder 42.5
41
Low Signal
40.4 vs 42.5
-2.1
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
40
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
O.Cooper
WR
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
39
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
38
Low Signal
0.8 vs 0.5
+0.3
draftkingsResearch only
T.Johnson
RB
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
38
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
37
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
37
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
J.Hawes
TE
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
I.Williams
WR
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
Greg Dortch
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
36
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJReceiving ydsUnder 36.5
35
Low Signal
35.6 vs 36.5
-0.9
fanduelO -114 / U -114
G.Smith
QB
NYJQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
34
Low Signal
1.1 vs 1.5
-0.4
draftkingsO +163 / U -210
M.Taylor
TE
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
33
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJLast TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Johnson
RB
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
32
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
T.Johnson
RB
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJLast TdOver 0.5
31
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFReceiving ydsUnder 41.5
31
Review First
41.5 vs 41.5
-0.0
fanduelO -114 / U -114
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
Skyler Bell
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
30
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
29
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
B.Hall
RB
NYJRush ydsUnder 53.5
28
Low Signal
52.7 vs 53.5
-0.8
draftkingsO -112 / U -112
J.Allen
QB
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFQB pass ydsOver 235.5
28
Low Signal
234.5 vs 235.5
-1.0
fanduelO -114 / U -114
Keleki Latu
TE
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
28
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Shakir
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
27
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
G.Wilson
WR
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
27
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFRush ydsUnder 91.5
26
Low Signal
91.3 vs 91.5
-0.2
fanduelO -114 / U -114
J.Cook
RB
BUFThree Plus TdsOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
B.Allen
RB
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
J.Hawes
TE
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
26
Low Signal
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
26
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
fanduelResearch only
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Allen
RB
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
25
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
fanduelResearch only
D.Knox
TE
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
24
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
O.Cooper
WR
NYJLast TdOver 0.5
24
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
hardrockResearch only
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJReceiving ydsUnder 21.5
23
Low Signal
24.9 vs 21.5
+3.4
fanduelO -114 / U -114
K.Coleman
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
23
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
G.Wilson
WR
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
23
Review First
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Kincaid
TE
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
23
Review First
0.0 vs 0.5
-0.5
draftkingsResearch only
B.Allen
RB
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
R.Davis
RB
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
22
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
21
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
G.Wilson
WR
NYJLast TdOver 0.5
21
Review First
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
K.Coleman
WR
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
D.Moore
WR
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
20
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
G.Wilson
WR
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
20
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
M.Taylor
TE
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
draftkingsResearch only
B.Hall
RB
NYJTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
19
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
B.Hall
RB
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFTwo Plus TdsOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.2 vs 0.5
-0.3
fanduelResearch only
B.Hall
RB
NYJFirst TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
18
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFQb Passing TdsUnder 1.5
17
Low Signal
1.4 vs 1.5
-0.1
draftkingsO -155 / U +121
J.Cook
RB
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
B.Allen
RB
NYJLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Cook
RB
BUFLast TdOver 0.5
17
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
B.Hall
RB
NYJLast TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
M.Taylor
TE
NYJLast TdOver 0.5
16
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
hardrockResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFAnytime TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.5 vs 0.5
+0.0
draftkingsResearch only
J.Allen
QB
BUFFirst TdOver 0.5
15
Low Signal
0.1 vs 0.5
-0.4
draftkingsResearch only
O.Cooper
WR
NYJAnytime TdOver 0.5
11
Review First
0.3 vs 0.5
-0.2
draftkingsResearch only

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Allen
#17
BUF1134247.31.821.30.638.2
G.Smith
#7
NYJ142212.91.118.30.917.5
K.Allen
#11
BUF280.00.00.00.0-2.1

Offense Projections

J.Cook
#4
BUF17468.617.41.92.585.90.7
B.Hall
#20
NYJ16063.131.23.54.694.30.5
D.Moore
#2
BUF264.277.25.28.781.30.5
O.Cooper
#11
NYJ240.076.55.06.076.50.5
G.Wilson
#5
NYJ3660.167.35.89.467.40.3
D.Kincaid
#86
BUF3490.048.84.15.548.80.2
K.Coleman
#0
BUF4330.344.93.15.045.20.4
B.Allen
#0
NYJ43037.69.51.52.047.10.3
K.Shakir
#10
BUF5650.344.63.75.044.90.2
A.Mitchell
#15
NYJ513-0.343.53.17.143.20.2
T.Johnson
#26
BUF64711.918.71.51.930.60.2
M.Taylor
#85
NYJ6190.027.13.44.927.10.2
R.Davis
#7
BUF74019.28.00.80.927.10.2
K.Sadiq
#16
NYJ790.326.12.33.426.40.2
D.Knox
#88
BUF81040.127.02.43.627.00.3
I.Williams
#18
NYJ8243.020.72.02.623.80.1
I.Davis
#32
NYJ93313.810.01.11.423.70.1
J.Palmer
#5
BUF9170.024.71.52.924.70.1
J.Hawes
#85
BUF10180.011.21.01.311.20.2
T.Patrick
#17
NYJ1020.020.51.53.020.50.0

Defense Projections

D.Bailey
#31
NYJ172.64.33.626.0
L.Jackson
#94
BUF114.04.04.072.0
T.Parker
#99
BUF232.02.71.310.0
N.Lynn
#92
NYJ221.53.51.512.0
M.Hoecht
#55
BUF331.32.00.310.2
J.Brownlee
#2
NYJ321.51.53.532.0
B.Chubb
#9
BUF451.26.41.624.8
D.Belton
#6
NYJ421.51.53.520.0
G.Rousseau
#15
BUF5670.92.71.411.7
K.Enagbare
#52
NYJ571.42.72.111.1
C.Bishop
#24
BUF670.90.91.313.4
A.Cisco
#8
NYJ631.02.02.324.3
D.Carter
#90
BUF770.61.01.99.4
D.Jackson
#95
NYJ731.02.02.322.0
E.Oliver
#91
BUF8680.51.60.97.6
W.McDonald
#9
NYJ8340.91.90.913.4
J.Briggs
#91
NYJ9140.81.31.19.6
D.Walker
#96
BUF9120.42.52.310.2
J.Solomon
#56
BUF10100.40.90.98.6
B.McGregor
#55
NYJ1020.51.00.51.0