CAR at NO

Pick

CAR

Confidence

56.2%

Margin

-0.1

Odds

+128

Model Read

The home-team number says NO wins about 44 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CAR, use the other side of that math: CAR wins about 56 out of 100 times. The -0.1 margin is written from NO's side, so it means CAR by about 0.1 points. Odds +128 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CAR: 56.2% win prob | margin -0.1 pts | confidence: 56.2% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-7.3e+02; oppose indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.3, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.3, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-7.3e+02

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


B.Young QB	CAR	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
D.Waller TE	CAR	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Tremble TE	CAR	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Barion Brown WR	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Anthony Tyus III RB	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Mitchell Evans TE	CAR	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Metchie WR	CAR	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Johnson TE	NO	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
D.Vele WR	NO	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
T.Shough QB	NO	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Brycen Tremayne WR	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
J.Sanders TE	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Feleipe Franks TE	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Oscar Delp TE	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Tyson WR	NO	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Trevor Etienne RB	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Anthony Tyus III RB	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Feleipe Franks TE	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Mitchell Evans TE	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
T.McMillan WR	CAR	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
J.Sanders TE	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
C.Olave WR	NO	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Metchie WR	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	66 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Feleipe Franks TE	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Sanders TE	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	64 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.Kamara RB	NO	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
N.Fant TE	NO	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Barion Brown WR	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Coker WR	CAR	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
C.Hubbard RB	CAR	Rush yds	Under 80.5	60 Mild Lean	65.0 vs 80.5 -15.5	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
J.Tyson WR	NO	Receiving yds	Under 41.5	59 Mild Lean	25.5 vs 41.5 -16.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
N.Fant TE	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	58 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Bryce Lance WR	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	57 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
B.Young QB	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	57 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Brycen Tremayne WR	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	56 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Brycen Tremayne WR	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	55 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Trevor Etienne RB	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	55 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Trevor Etienne RB	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	54 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Oscar Delp TE	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	52 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
C.Olave WR	NO	Receiving yds	Under 73.5	52 Low Signal	67.2 vs 73.5 -6.3	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
T.Tremble TE	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.Estime RB	NO	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
D.Waller TE	CAR	Receiving yds	Over 29.5	49 Low Signal	38.4 vs 29.5 +8.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
D.Vele WR	NO	Receiving yds	Over 27.5	49 Low Signal	36.2 vs 27.5 +8.7	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Oscar Delp TE	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Barion Brown WR	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Barion Brown WR	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	47 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Mitchell Evans TE	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	46 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Johnson TE	NO	Receiving yds	Over 21.5	45 Low Signal	29.5 vs 21.5 +8.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Anthony Tyus III RB	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	44 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
J.Metchie WR	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	42 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Mitchell Evans TE	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	42 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Shough QB	NO	QB pass yds	Under 252.5	42 Low Signal	229.8 vs 252.5 -22.7	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
N.Fant TE	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	42 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Metchie WR	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Metchie WR	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	38 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
N.Fant TE	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	38 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Waller TE	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
T.Tremble TE	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
B.Young QB	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Trevor Etienne RB	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Bryce Lance WR	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Young QB	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	32 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
N.Fant TE	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	32 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Bryce Lance WR	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
B.Young QB	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Bryce Lance WR	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Oscar Delp TE	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Coker WR	CAR	Receiving yds	Under 47.5	30 Low Signal	48.1 vs 47.5 +0.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
J.Coker WR	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Coker WR	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Johnson TE	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
B.Young QB	CAR	QB pass yds	Over 244.5	29 Low Signal	241.8 vs 244.5 -2.7	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
J.Tyson WR	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Johnson TE	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
J.Tyson WR	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.McMillan WR	CAR	Receiving yds	Under 65.5	27 Low Signal	69.9 vs 65.5 +4.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
D.Waller TE	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	27 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Olave WR	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Olave WR	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
A.Kamara RB	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Vele WR	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
T.McMillan WR	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Vele WR	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.McMillan WR	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Tremble TE	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Tyson WR	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Hubbard RB	CAR	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	24 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
T.Tremble TE	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
J.Tyson WR	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Coker WR	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
D.Waller TE	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Shough QB	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
C.Hubbard RB	CAR	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Coker WR	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
C.Olave WR	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
C.Olave WR	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
T.Shough QB	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
A.Estime RB	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	21 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Waller TE	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Johnson TE	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
D.Vele WR	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Johnson TE	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.McMillan WR	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
A.Estime RB	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
A.Kamara RB	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
A.Estime RB	NO	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
C.Hubbard RB	CAR	First Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Hubbard RB	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
A.Kamara RB	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.6 vs 0.5 +0.1	draftkings	Research only
C.Hubbard RB	CAR	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.4 vs 0.5 -0.1	hardrock	Research only
D.Vele WR	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
Mitchell Evans TE	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.Shough QB	NO	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
B.Young QB	CAR	Qb Passing Tds	Under 1.5	16 Low Signal	1.4 vs 1.5 -0.1	draftkings	O -123 / U -104
A.Kamara RB	NO	First Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.Estime RB	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.Shough QB	NO	Qb Passing Tds	Under 1.5	15 Low Signal	1.4 vs 1.5 -0.1	draftkings	O -133 / U +105
T.McMillan WR	CAR	Last Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
T.Shough QB	NO	Last Td	Over 0.5	13 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


B.Young #9	CAR	1	54	194.2	1.2	19.2	0.3	14.2
T.Shough #6	NO	1	19	293.3	1.7	28.7	0.0	22.1
S.Rattler #2	NO	2	16	181.4	0.8	19.0	0.3	19.6
K.Pickett #12	CAR	2	3	15.7	0.0	1.0	0.0	11.7

Offense Projections

Market


A.Kamara #41	NO	1	133	56.2	38.7	4.8	6.1	94.9	0.7
C.Hubbard #30	CAR	1	83	51.9	13.7	2.1	2.7	65.6	0.4
C.Olave #12	NO	2	63	0.1	78.6	6.1	9.3	78.7	0.3
T.McMillan #4	CAR	2	25	0.0	65.6	4.6	7.7	65.6	0.4
D.Waller #88	CAR	3	8	0.0	63.5	4.8	7.5	63.5	0.9
A.Estime #30	NO	3	6	45.0	18.0	2.2	2.3	63.0	0.3
J.Coker #18	CAR	4	29	-0.1	43.6	3.3	4.8	43.5	0.3
T.Etienne #3	NO	4	3	42.7	17.0	3.7	4.3	59.7	0.0
X.Legette #17	CAR	5	32	0.8	28.9	2.7	4.8	29.6	0.2
D.Vele #14	NO	5	17	0.0	52.0	4.8	7.2	52.0	0.4
K.Miller #5	NO	6	26	27.3	8.9	1.3	1.6	36.2	0.2
J.Brooks #25	CAR	6	5	10.4	13.2	1.0	1.2	23.6	0.0
J.Johnson #83	NO	7	86	0.0	35.3	3.2	4.5	35.3	0.3
J.Metchie #13	CAR	7	7	0.0	22.0	2.0	3.1	22.0	0.1
J.Sanders #0	CAR	8	27	0.0	19.7	2.3	2.9	19.7	0.1
J.Tyson #0	NO	8	1	0.0	30.0	4.0	5.0	30.0	0.0
D.Moore #83	CAR	9	23	0.5	16.7	1.5	2.7	17.2	0.1
N.Fant #87	NO	9	7	0.0	23.1	2.9	4.3	23.1	0.9
T.Tremble #82	CAR	10	74	0.1	16.4	1.8	2.7	16.5	0.2
K.Austin #81	NO	10	14	0.6	21.3	1.8	3.3	21.9	0.1

Defense Projections

Market


J.Phillips #5	CAR	1	4	2.3	5.3	1.8	26.5
T.Wilson #98	NO	1	1	4.0	4.0	4.0	64.0
D.Lloyd #55	CAR	2	4	1.8	4.3	3.5	19.3
K.Boyd #97	NO	2	3	1.7	2.0	3.0	32.0
C.Young #99	NO	3	28	1.5	2.7	1.3	18.3
P.Umanmielen #3	CAR	3	9	1.3	2.0	1.8	15.3
C.Granderson #96	NO	4	59	0.9	1.6	1.2	11.6
B.Okereke #58	CAR	4	4	0.8	1.8	3.8	22.5
C.Jordan #94	NO	5	170	0.8	1.5	1.1	10.6
T.Gipson #52	CAR	5	6	0.7	1.3	1.7	12.8
C.Wooden #50	NO	6	4	0.8	2.5	1.8	20.8
T.Wharton #98	CAR	6	3	0.7	1.0	0.7	5.7
I.Stalbird #44	NO	7	3	0.7	1.0	0.7	10.0
L.Ransom #22	CAR	7	2	0.5	0.5	1.0	10.0
K.Elliss #55	NO	8	15	0.6	2.1	1.2	7.6
T.Moehrig #7	CAR	8	12	0.4	1.2	1.7	9.3
P.Jones #91	CAR	9	6	0.3	1.0	2.3	8.7
C.Rumph #58	NO	9	5	0.4	0.8	0.6	5.0
D.Brown #95	CAR	10	57	0.2	1.2	0.7	4.3
N.Shepherd #93	NO	10	24	0.4	1.5	0.4	5.6

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