MIA at IND

Pick

IND

Confidence

58.5%

Margin

+2.6

Odds

-141

Model Read

The model says IND wins about 59 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +2.6 margin is written from IND's side, so it means IND by about 2.6 points. Odds -141 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick IND: 58.5% win prob | margin +2.6 pts | confidence: 58.5% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+7.1e+02, indoor_diff=+1; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+7.1e+02, indoor_diff=+1

Player Props

Model Watchlist

No official player prop picks cleared today's historical price gate. This watchlist shows the strongest model signals for context.

Market


D.Jones QB	IND	QB pass yds	Over 182.5	72 Solid Lean	217.6 vs 182.5 +35.1	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Deion Burks WR	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Anthony Gould WR	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
D.Jones QB	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
L.Treadwell WR	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Giddens RB	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
Will Mallory TE	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
D.Herman RB	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Pharaoh Brown TE	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
A.Dulin WR	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Pharaoh Brown TE	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
S.McGowan RB	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
J.Wright RB	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jared Wayne WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Drew Ogletree TE	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jalen Tolbert WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
A.Dulin WR	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Pharaoh Brown TE	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	69 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
J.Wright RB	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	68 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Jared Wayne WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	67 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Seydou Traore TE	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	66 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Will Mallory TE	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	66 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Seydou Traore TE	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	65 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Warren TE	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Mild Lean	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
C.Bell WR	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Will Kacmarek TE	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
M.Alie-Cox TE	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	64 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
K.Allen RB	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	63 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Rush yds	Under 72.5	62 Mild Lean	55.2 vs 72.5 -17.3	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
Anthony Gould WR	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Giddens RB	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	62 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
L.Treadwell WR	IND	Receiving yds	Under 28.5	62 Mild Lean	18.8 vs 28.5 -9.7	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
C.Bell WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	62 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Pharaoh Brown TE	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Will Mallory TE	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Jones QB	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
D.Herman RB	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	61 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jalen Tolbert WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	60 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	59 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Deion Burks WR	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	59 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
D.Giddens RB	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	57 Mild Lean	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Drew Ogletree TE	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	56 Mild Lean	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
Jared Wayne WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	53 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Herman RB	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	51 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Will Kacmarek TE	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	51 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Seydou Traore TE	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Jalen Tolbert WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
J.Taylor RB	IND	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	50 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Drew Ogletree TE	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Three Plus Tds	Over 0.5	48 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	fanduel	Research only
Will Kacmarek TE	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	47 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
A.Dulin WR	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	45 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
A.Dulin WR	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	44 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Wright RB	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	43 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Deion Burks WR	IND	Receiving yds	Under 17.5	43 Low Signal	13.1 vs 17.5 -4.4	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Receiving yds	Over 42.5	43 Low Signal	51.1 vs 42.5 +8.6	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
M.Alie-Cox TE	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	42 Review First	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
K.Allen RB	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
L.Treadwell WR	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	41 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
Anthony Gould WR	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
K.Allen RB	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
S.McGowan RB	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	40 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	fanduel	Research only
A.Dulin WR	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Will Mallory TE	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	39 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
L.Treadwell WR	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	38 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
M.Alie-Cox TE	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	38 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
C.Bell WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	38 Review First	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	fanduel	Research only
J.Wright RB	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	37 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
T.Warren TE	IND	Receiving yds	Under 47.5	36 Low Signal	46.5 vs 47.5 -1.0	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
S.McGowan RB	IND	Rush yds	Over 24.5	35 Low Signal	32.5 vs 24.5 +8.0	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
M.Washington WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
D.Giddens RB	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	35 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
D.Jones QB	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
L.Treadwell WR	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	33 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
M.Alie-Cox TE	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	32 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	Receiving yds	Under 32.5	31 Low Signal	33.6 vs 32.5 +1.1	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
T.Warren TE	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
S.McGowan RB	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	31 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Deion Burks WR	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	30 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
J.Taylor RB	IND	Rush yds	Under 68.5	29 Low Signal	67.4 vs 68.5 -1.1	draftkings	O -112 / U -112
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Deion Burks WR	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
J.Wright RB	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	29 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
L.Treadwell WR	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	28 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Receiving yds	Under 34.5	28 Low Signal	38.3 vs 34.5 +3.8	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
C.Bell WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	28 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
T.Warren TE	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	26 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
Anthony Gould WR	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
K.Allen RB	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	25 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
C.Bell WR	MIA	Receiving yds	Under 16.5	25 Review First	17.4 vs 16.5 +0.9	fanduel	O -114 / U -114
C.Bell WR	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	25 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Will Kacmarek TE	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	25 Review First	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
Deion Burks WR	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
D.Jones QB	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
D.Jones QB	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	23 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
S.McGowan RB	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
Drew Ogletree TE	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	22 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
M.Washington WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	MIA	Last Td	Over 0.5	20 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	hardrock	Research only
T.Warren TE	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	19 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
D.Jones QB	IND	Qb Passing Tds	Under 1.5	19 Low Signal	1.4 vs 1.5 -0.1	draftkings	O +174 / U -224
J.Taylor RB	IND	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.0 vs 0.5 -0.5	draftkings	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	First Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Taylor RB	IND	Last Td	Over 0.5	18 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	hardrock	Research only
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Two Plus Tds	Over 0.5	17 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	fanduel	Research only
J.Taylor RB	IND	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	16 Low Signal	0.6 vs 0.5 +0.1	hardrock	Research only
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Anytime Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.3 vs 0.5 -0.2	draftkings	Research only
T.Warren TE	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only
J.Taylor RB	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	15 Low Signal	0.2 vs 0.5 -0.3	draftkings	Research only
S.McGowan RB	IND	First Td	Over 0.5	12 Low Signal	0.1 vs 0.5 -0.4	draftkings	Research only

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


D.Jones #17	IND	1	22	274.9	1.4	26.1	0.0	12.8
M.Willis #2	MIA	1	8	263.5	0.9	22.4	0.0	43.0
A.Richardson #5	IND	2	18	133.8	0.6	9.9	0.7	35.4
R.Leonard #15	IND	3	5	83.0	0.4	7.8	0.0	5.4

Offense Projections

Market


J.Taylor #28	IND	1	93	92.5	18.9	2.4	3.1	111.5	1.0
D.Achane #28	MIA	1	47	67.7	28.2	3.8	4.7	96.0	0.7
K.Allen #10	IND	2	8	0.0	84.5	9.5	13.5	84.5	0.3
R.Miller #11	MIA	2	3	0.0	87.0	2.3	3.0	87.0	1.0
T.Warren #84	IND	3	24	0.8	50.9	5.7	8.0	51.7	0.4
C.Douglas #7	MIA	3	5	0.0	81.8	5.2	7.4	81.8	0.4
J.Downs #12	IND	4	56	0.1	48.1	4.4	6.8	48.2	0.2
G.Dulcich #85	MIA	4	16	-0.4	43.4	3.7	4.8	43.0	0.1
A.Pierce #14	IND	5	66	0.0	46.6	2.5	4.7	46.6	0.3
M.Washington #6	MIA	5	37	5.0	30.0	3.3	4.8	35.0	0.2
S.McGowan #20	IND	6	9	28.1	1.8	0.8	1.0	29.9	0.1
C.Bell #18	MIA	6	8	3.0	30.0	2.1	4.8	33.0	0.0
O.Gordon #0	MIA	7	24	27.6	2.3	0.6	0.8	29.9	0.3
D.Giddens #21	IND	7	6	23.2	0.0	0.0	0.3	23.2	0.0
J.Wright #5	MIA	8	28	21.2	1.9	0.3	0.6	23.1	0.1
L.Treadwell #13	IND	8	15	0.0	22.5	1.7	2.7	22.5	0.0
A.Dulin #16	IND	9	56	2.6	13.1	0.8	1.5	15.8	0.1
K.Allen #30	MIA	9	2	-0.5	23.0	0.5	0.5	22.5	0.0
M.Alie-Cox #81	IND	10	102	0.0	15.7	1.3	2.0	15.7	0.2
D.Herman #34	MIA	10	2	0.0	18.0	1.0	3.0	18.0	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


J.Uche #9	MIA	1	6	1.2	2.8	2.2	21.0
J.Walley #27	IND	1	1	3.0	3.0	3.0	54.0
C.Robinson #44	MIA	2	21	1.1	2.6	1.1	13.9
C.Taylor-Britt #29	IND	2	1	3.0	0.0	3.0	6.0
M.Herring #90	MIA	3	3	1.0	2.0	3.3	19.0
C.Allen #53	IND	3	2	1.5	1.5	2.0	30.5
J.Tillery #94	IND	4	3	1.3	1.3	2.7	9.3
W.Gay #40	MIA	4	3	0.7	0.7	1.0	6.3
Z.Sieler #92	MIA	5	74	0.6	1.3	1.1	9.2
C.Curry #55	IND	5	1	1.0	1.0	1.0	4.0
A.Adebawore #95	IND	6	21	0.9	1.9	1.0	11.4
Z.Biggers #93	MIA	6	7	0.4	1.7	0.3	4.4
D.Buckner #99	IND	7	73	0.8	1.9	1.0	10.8
J.Rodriguez #10	MIA	7	3	0.3	1.3	3.3	9.0
L.Latu #97	IND	8	26	0.8	2.3	0.8	9.9
K.Grant #78	MIA	8	6	0.3	0.8	0.3	1.0
J.Brooks #20	MIA	9	25	0.3	0.6	1.3	5.6
A.Key #98	IND	9	3	0.5	3.3	0.0	7.5
J.Tuimoloau #91	IND	10	8	0.5	1.6	0.6	9.0
R.McGraw #59	MIA	10	1	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0

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