ARI at SF

Pick

Confidence

72.6%

Margin

+6.5

Odds

-265

Model Read

The model says SF wins about 73 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +6.5 margin is written from SF's side, so it means SF by about 6.5 points. Odds -265 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick SF: 72.6% win prob | margin +6.5 pts | confidence: 72.6% home | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03, indoor_diff=-1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03, indoor_diff=-1; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05

Player Props

Game Prop Board

Market


G.Kittle TE	SF	Receiving yds	60.0	44.5	+15.5	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
J.Brissett QB	ARI	QB pass yds	211.9	225.5	-13.6	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
K.Black RB	SF	Rush yds	44.3	32.5	+11.8	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	Low	Injury Review
T.McBride TE	ARI	Receiving yds	59.2	67.5	-8.3	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
K.Bourne WR	ARI	Receiving yds	30.6	23.5	+7.1	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
B.Purdy QB	SF	QB pass yds	228.5	235.5	-7.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
D.Samuel WR	SF	Receiving yds	45.5	40.5	+5.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Rush yds	38.0	33.5	+4.5	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
M.Harrison WR	ARI	Receiving yds	30.8	32.5	-1.7	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
M.Evans WR	SF	Receiving yds	54.1	55.5	-1.4	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	Injury Review
Z.Collins LB	ARI	Sacks	0.1	1.0	-0.9	fanduel	O +470 / U -	Medium	OK
W.Nolen DL	ARI	Sacks	0.1	1.0	-0.9	fanduel	O +280 / U -	Medium	OK
F.Warner LB	SF	Sacks	0.2	1.0	-0.8	fanduel	O +310 / U -	Medium	OK
K.White DL	SF	Sacks	0.4	1.0	-0.6	draftkings	O +146 / U -	Medium	OK
B.Purdy QB	SF	Qb Passing Tds	2.1	1.5	+0.6	fanduel	O -160 / U +122	High	OK
J.Love RB	ARI	Rush yds	41.9	41.5	+0.4	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	Low	Injury Review
D.Duvernay WR	ARI	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +2800 / U -	High	OK
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +1800 / U -	High	OK
J.Brooks WR	ARI	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +4500 / U -	High	OK
J.Cowing WR	SF	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +700 / U -	Medium	OK
K.Black RB	SF	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +310 / U -	Low	Injury Review
J.James RB	SF	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +2000 / U -	Low	Injury Exclusion
J.Brissett QB	ARI	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +700 / U -	High	OK
K.Bourne WR	ARI	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +750 / U -	High	OK
C.McCaffrey RB	SF	Anytime Td	0.8	0.5	+0.3	draftkings	O -250 / U -	High	OK
K.Juszczyk RB	SF	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +750 / U -	High	OK
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +180 / U -	High	OK
Z.Knight RB	ARI	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +3000 / U -	High	OK
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +275 / U -	High	OK
B.Purdy QB	SF	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +265 / U -	High	OK
J.Love RB	ARI	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +165 / U -	Low	Injury Review
M.Harrison WR	ARI	Anytime Td	0.3	0.5	-0.2	draftkings	O +400 / U -	High	OK
T.McBride TE	ARI	Anytime Td	0.3	0.5	-0.2	draftkings	O +175 / U -	High	OK
J.Sweat LB	ARI	Sacks	0.4	0.3	+0.2	draftkings	O +276 / U -364	Medium	OK
G.Kittle TE	SF	Anytime Td	0.3	0.5	-0.2	draftkings	O +175 / U -	High	OK
J.Brissett QB	ARI	Qb Passing Tds	1.6	1.5	+0.1	draftkings	O +148 / U -190	High	OK
D.Samuel WR	SF	Anytime Td	0.4	0.5	-0.1	draftkings	O +170 / U -	High	OK
C.McCaffrey RB	SF	Rush yds	55.4	55.5	-0.1	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
M.Evans WR	SF	Anytime Td	0.5	0.5	+0.0	draftkings	O +155 / U -	High	Injury Review
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	Receiving yds	44.5	44.5	-0.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

Market


C.McCaffrey RB	SF	Rb Rushing Tds	0.6	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.McBride TE	ARI	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
D.Samuel WR	SF	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Harrison WR	ARI	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Jones QB	SF	Anytime Td	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Jones QB	SF	Qb Passing Tds	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Jones QB	SF	QB pass yds	34.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
G.Kittle TE	SF	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Evans WR	SF	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.5	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Review
Mi.Wilson WR	ARI	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Allgeier RB	ARI	Rb Rushing Tds	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
K.Bourne WR	ARI	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
D.Robinson WR	SF	Anytime Td	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
D.Robinson WR	SF	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
D.Robinson WR	SF	Receiving yds	31.8	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Roster Exclusion
Z.Knight RB	ARI	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
Z.Knight RB	ARI	Rush yds	16.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
E.Higgins TE	ARI	Receiving yds	14.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
K.Juszczyk RB	SF	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
K.Juszczyk RB	SF	Rush yds	2.5	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Brooks WR	ARI	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Brooks WR	ARI	Receiving yds	9.6	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
D.Duvernay WR	ARI	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
D.Duvernay WR	ARI	Receiving yds	8.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Bosa DL	SF	Sacks	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Injury Exclusion
C.West DL	SF	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
J.Burch LB	ARI	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
D.Stills DL	ARI	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
L.Collier DL	ARI	Sacks	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
T.Bethune LB	SF	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Injury Exclusion
D.Robinson DL	ARI	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Tonges TE	SF	Anytime Td	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
J.Tonges TE	SF	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
J.Tonges TE	SF	Receiving yds	21.6	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
U.Stout DB	SF	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
D.Lenoir DB	SF	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
B.Browning LB	ARI	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
M.Mustapha DB	SF	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Brown DB	SF	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Cowing WR	SF	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Cowing WR	SF	Receiving yds	13.4	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
Ma.Wilson LB	ARI	Sacks	0.0	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
B.Baker DB	ARI	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
M.Sigle DB	SF	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Love RB	ARI	Rb Rushing Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	Injury Review
K.Black RB	SF	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	Injury Review
J.James RB	SF	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	Injury Exclusion
J.James RB	SF	Rush yds	18.8	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	Injury Exclusion

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


B.Purdy #13	SF	1	51	242.8	1.8	19.4	0.5	14.0
J.Brissett #7	ARI	1	16	233.6	1.6	22.4	0.0	11.8
M.Jones #10	SF	2	12	179.2	1.1	16.8	0.0	4.8

Offense Projections

Market


T.McBride #85	ARI	1	61	0.0	59.2	6.0	7.9	59.2	0.3
C.McCaffrey #23	SF	1	50	75.4	43.6	5.0	6.3	119.0	1.0
D.Samuel #19	SF	2	82	14.1	59.4	4.2	6.3	73.5	0.5
M.Harrison #18	ARI	2	31	0.0	49.2	3.4	6.2	49.2	0.4
G.Kittle #85	SF	3	126	0.5	64.3	4.8	6.4	64.8	0.4
J.Love #4	ARI	3	2	35.0	12.5	2.5	3.5	47.5	0.5
Mi.Wilson #14	ARI	4	48	0.1	45.7	3.5	5.6	45.8	0.3
M.Evans #5	SF	4	2	0.0	51.5	4.5	5.0	51.5	0.5
T.Allgeier #22	ARI	5	2	35.5	9.0	2.0	2.0	44.5	0.0
K.Black #26	SF	5	2	45.0	2.5	0.5	0.5	47.5	0.0
J.Tonges #88	SF	6	10	0.0	29.3	3.4	4.6	29.3	0.5
K.Bourne #17	ARI	6	2	0.0	43.0	5.0	5.5	43.0	0.0
D.Robinson #11	SF	7	16	0.4	22.5	1.7	2.6	22.9	0.1
Z.Knight #20	ARI	7	13	22.5	12.3	1.7	2.4	34.8	0.4
K.Juszczyk #44	SF	8	122	1.7	17.5	1.7	2.3	19.2	0.2
E.Higgins #84	ARI	8	41	0.0	15.5	1.6	1.9	15.5	0.1
J.Brooks #86	ARI	9	5	0.0	10.2	0.6	1.2	10.2	0.0
J.Cowing #4	SF	9	5	1.4	16.0	0.8	1.2	17.4	0.0
D.Duvernay #81	ARI	10	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
J.James #29	SF	10	1	15.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	15.0	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


N.Bosa #97	SF	1	75	0.9	2.2	1.2	12.5
J.Sweat #10	ARI	1	12	1.0	1.4	1.1	13.5
C.West #99	SF	2	2	0.5	0.5	1.0	8.5
J.Burch #52	ARI	2	1	1.0	1.0	1.0	16.0
D.Stills #55	ARI	3	13	0.6	1.0	0.8	9.1
K.White #56	SF	3	5	0.3	1.2	0.4	4.9
L.Collier #91	ARI	4	7	0.5	1.1	0.6	5.2
T.Bethune #48	SF	4	4	0.3	0.3	1.0	6.8
F.Warner #54	SF	5	46	0.2	0.7	0.8	4.2
W.Nolen #97	ARI	5	5	0.4	1.0	1.0	6.2
D.Robinson #56	ARI	6	5	0.4	0.6	1.0	3.8
U.Stout #20	SF	6	5	0.2	0.4	0.8	3.6
Z.Collins #25	ARI	7	36	0.3	0.8	0.9	7.3
D.Lenoir #2	SF	7	14	0.1	0.1	1.0	3.0
B.Browning #5	ARI	8	12	0.3	0.7	0.7	4.5
M.Mustapha #6	SF	8	6	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.7
Ma.Wilson #1	ARI	9	10	0.3	0.8	0.7	5.3
J.Brown #27	SF	9	4	0.0	0.0	1.3	1.5
B.Baker #3	ARI	10	46	0.2	0.4	1.1	4.8
M.Sigle #36	SF	10	1	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0

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