Back to week 3
Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 8:05 PM UTC
MIN at TB
Pick
MIN
Confidence
44.3%
Margin
+0.4
Odds
+126
Model Read
The home-team number says TB wins about 44 out of 100 times. Because the pick is MIN, use the other side of that math: MIN wins about 56 out of 100 times. The +0.4 margin is written from TB's side, so it means TB by about 0.4 points. Odds +126 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick MIN: 55.7% win prob | margin +0.4 pts | confidence: 55.7% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-8.1e+02, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.45; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-8.1e+02, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.45
Player Props
Game Prop Board
K.Murray QB | MIN | QB pass yds | 153.2 | 215.5 | -62.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Exclusion |
B.Mayfield QB | TB | QB pass yds | 242.0 | 216.5 | +25.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.McMillan WR | TB | Receiving yds | 37.6 | 13.5 | +24.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
J.Addison WR | MIN | Receiving yds | 24.6 | 36.5 | -11.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Godwin WR | TB | Receiving yds | 44.8 | 35.5 | +9.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Jennings WR | MIN | Receiving yds | 22.6 | 14.5 | +8.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Exclusion |
C.Otton TE | TB | Receiving yds | 34.6 | 26.5 | +8.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
E.Egbuka WR | TB | Receiving yds | 41.9 | 48.5 | -6.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
B.Irving RB | TB | Rush yds | 63.4 | 57.5 | +5.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
T.Hurst WR | TB | Receiving yds | 29.9 | 24.5 | +5.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Low | OK |
J.Oliver TE | MIN | Receiving yds | 16.2 | 11.5 | +4.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
K.Gainwell RB | TB | Rush yds | 14.6 | 18.5 | -3.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
T.Hockenson TE | MIN | Receiving yds | 33.2 | 29.5 | +3.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
A.Jones RB | MIN | Rush yds | 55.8 | 53.5 | +2.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Jefferson WR | MIN | Receiving yds | 74.5 | 75.5 | -1.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Kancey DL | TB | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +329 / U - | Low | OK |
J.Redmond DL | MIN | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +382 / U - | Medium | OK |
Y.Diaby LB | TB | Sacks | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.8 | draftkings | O +244 / U - | Medium | OK |
V.Vea DL | TB | Sacks | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.7 | draftkings | O +392 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Turner LB | MIN | Sacks | 0.9 | 0.3 | +0.7 | draftkings | O -116 / U -108 | Medium | OK |
B.Cashman LB | MIN | Sacks | 0.4 | 1.0 | -0.6 | fanduel | O +270 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Felton WR | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2500 / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Van Ginkel LB | MIN | Sacks | 0.6 | 0.3 | +0.4 | draftkings | O +119 / U -151 | Medium | OK |
T.Hurst WR | TB | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +425 / U - | Low | OK |
P.Durham TE | TB | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2500 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Claiborne RB | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1500 / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
D.Dallas RB | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +850 / U - | High | OK |
B.Mayfield QB | TB | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +600 / U - | High | OK |
C.Otton TE | TB | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +380 / U - | High | OK |
J.Oliver TE | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +600 / U - | High | OK |
K.Murray QB | MIN | Qb Passing Tds | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +133 / U -170 | High | Injury Exclusion |
K.Gainwell RB | TB | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +295 / U - | High | OK |
C.Godwin WR | TB | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +330 / U - | High | OK |
T.Johnson WR | TB | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +850 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Hockenson TE | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +310 / U - | High | OK |
K.Murray QB | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +380 / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
J.Jennings WR | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +550 / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
J.McMillan WR | TB | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +600 / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Tucker RB | TB | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +950 / U - | High | OK |
E.Egbuka WR | TB | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +220 / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Irving RB | TB | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +135 / U - | High | OK |
J.Addison WR | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +270 / U - | High | OK |
J.Jefferson WR | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +150 / U - | High | OK |
A.Jones RB | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O -115 / U - | High | OK |
B.Mayfield QB | TB | Qb Passing Tds | 1.6 | 1.5 | +0.1 | fanduel | O +136 / U -178 | High | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
B.Irving RB | TB | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
C.Wentz QB | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
C.Wentz QB | MIN | Qb Passing Tds | 1.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
C.Wentz QB | MIN | QB pass yds | 210.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Jefferson WR | MIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Jones RB | MIN | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
C.Godwin WR | TB | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Addison WR | MIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Mason RB | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
J.Mason RB | MIN | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
J.Mason RB | MIN | Rush yds | 43.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
C.Otton TE | TB | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Hockenson TE | MIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Oliver TE | MIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Dallas RB | MIN | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Dallas RB | MIN | Rush yds | 10.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
S.Tucker RB | TB | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
S.Tucker RB | TB | Rush yds | 11.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Gainwell RB | TB | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Jennings WR | MIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
A.Winfield DB | TB | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Chambliss LB | MIN | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Nelson LB | TB | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.McCarthy QB | MIN | Anytime Td | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.McCarthy QB | MIN | Qb Passing Tds | 0.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.McCarthy QB | MIN | QB pass yds | 174.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
E.Egbuka WR | TB | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
E.Wilson LB | MIN | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.McMillan WR | TB | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
Th.Jackson DB | MIN | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Parrish DB | TB | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
E.Roberts DL | TB | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Ingram-Dawkins DL | MIN | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Dennis LB | TB | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Felton WR | MIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Felton WR | MIN | Receiving yds | 11.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Johnson WR | TB | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Johnson WR | TB | Receiving yds | 21.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
H.Smith DB | MIN | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
T.Smith DB | TB | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
I.Pace LB | MIN | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
P.Durham TE | TB | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
P.Durham TE | TB | Receiving yds | 11.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
Z.McCollum DB | TB | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Hurst WR | TB | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
D.Claiborne RB | MIN | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
D.Claiborne RB | MIN | Rush yds | 5.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
Player Projections
QB Projections
B.Mayfield #6 | TB | 1 | 53 | 238.4 | 1.8 | 21.9 | 0.5 | 18.5 |
C.Wentz #11 | MIN | 1 | 7 | 213.1 | 1.3 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 8.9 |
J.McCarthy #9 | MIN | 2 | 10 | 163.2 | 1.1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 18.1 |
K.Murray #1 | MIN | 3 | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 |
Offense Projections
J.Jefferson #18 | MIN | 1 | 96 | 0.4 | 89.9 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 90.3 | 0.5 |
B.Irving #7 | TB | 1 | 29 | 63.6 | 24.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 88.3 | 0.5 |
C.Godwin #14 | TB | 2 | 121 | 0.7 | 63.7 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 64.5 | 0.4 |
A.Jones #33 | MIN | 2 | 31 | 59.1 | 19.6 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 78.6 | 0.3 |
J.Addison #3 | MIN | 3 | 48 | 2.1 | 50.4 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 52.5 | 0.5 |
E.Egbuka #2 | TB | 3 | 19 | 0.3 | 53.5 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 53.8 | 0.4 |
J.Mason #27 | MIN | 4 | 17 | 48.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 51.1 | 0.4 |
J.McMillan #11 | TB | 4 | 17 | 2.6 | 37.6 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 40.2 | 0.5 |
C.Otton #88 | TB | 5 | 61 | -0.1 | 34.1 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 34.1 | 0.2 |
T.Hockenson #87 | MIN | 5 | 52 | 0.0 | 46.9 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 46.9 | 0.2 |
J.Oliver #84 | MIN | 6 | 37 | 0.0 | 18.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 18.3 | 0.2 |
T.Hurst #17 | TB | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 31.5 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 31.5 | 0.0 |
S.Tucker #44 | TB | 7 | 31 | 21.0 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 25.9 | 0.3 |
D.Dallas #31 | MIN | 7 | 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.5 | 0.0 |
T.Johnson #15 | TB | 8 | 17 | 1.1 | 21.8 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 22.9 | 0.3 |
T.Felton #13 | MIN | 8 | 12 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
K.Gainwell #1 | TB | 9 | 2 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 |
D.Claiborne #21 | MIN | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
P.Durham #87 | TB | 10 | 19 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 9.7 | 0.1 |
J.Jennings #14 | MIN | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Defense Projections
A.Winfield #31 | TB | 1 | 33 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7.6 |
C.Chambliss #32 | MIN | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
A.Nelson #98 | TB | 2 | 40 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7.5 |
A.Van Ginkel #43 | MIN | 2 | 25 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 11.1 |
V.Vea #50 | TB | 3 | 66 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 7.7 |
D.Turner #15 | MIN | 3 | 15 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 10.6 |
Y.Diaby #0 | TB | 4 | 36 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 8.7 |
E.Wilson #55 | MIN | 4 | 29 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 9.5 |
C.Kancey #94 | TB | 5 | 24 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6.7 |
Th.Jackson #26 | MIN | 5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 10.3 |
J.Redmond #61 | MIN | 6 | 14 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 9.2 |
J.Parrish #25 | TB | 6 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 9.4 |
E.Roberts #95 | TB | 7 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
T.Ingram-Dawkins #90 | MIN | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 7.0 |
B.Cashman #51 | MIN | 8 | 15 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6.3 |
S.Dennis #8 | TB | 8 | 12 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 8.6 |
H.Smith #22 | MIN | 9 | 67 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 5.8 |
T.Smith #23 | TB | 9 | 11 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 5.5 |
I.Pace #0 | MIN | 10 | 21 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
Z.McCollum #27 | TB | 10 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 |