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Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 8:25 PM UTC
BAL at DAL
Pick
BAL
Confidence
42.9%
Margin
-1.4
Odds
+133
Model Read
The home-team number says DAL wins about 43 out of 100 times. Because the pick is BAL, use the other side of that math: BAL wins about 57 out of 100 times. The -1.4 margin is written from DAL's side, so it means BAL by about 1.4 points. Odds +133 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick BAL: 57.1% win prob | margin -1.4 pts | confidence: 57.1% away | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.15, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+4e+02 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+4e+02; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.15, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.1
Player Props
Game Prop Board
R.Bateman WR | BAL | Receiving yds | 32.8 | 48.5 | -15.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
L.Jackson QB | BAL | QB pass yds | 225.4 | 239.5 | -14.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Henry RB | BAL | Rush yds | 104.5 | 90.5 | +14.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
G.Pickens WR | DAL | Receiving yds | 50.9 | 64.5 | -13.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Williams RB | DAL | Rush yds | 43.4 | 54.5 | -11.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
E.Demercado RB | DAL | Rush yds | 17.6 | 8.5 | +9.1 | draftkings | O -109 / U -115 | High | OK |
C.Lamb WR | DAL | Receiving yds | 73.9 | 82.5 | -8.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Prescott QB | DAL | QB pass yds | 253.3 | 261.5 | -8.2 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
M.Andrews TE | BAL | Receiving yds | 35.7 | 41.5 | -5.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
R.Flournoy WR | DAL | Receiving yds | 25.3 | 29.5 | -4.2 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Moore WR | BAL | Receiving yds | 20.1 | 18.0 | +2.1 | draftkings | O -116 / U - | High | OK |
K.Hamilton DB | BAL | Sacks | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | draftkings | O +561 / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Ferguson TE | DAL | Receiving yds | 25.6 | 26.5 | -0.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Madubuike DL | BAL | Sacks | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.7 | draftkings | O +273 / U - | Low | OK |
J.Hill RB | BAL | Rush yds | 12.8 | 13.5 | -0.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Prescott QB | DAL | Qb Passing Tds | 2.1 | 1.5 | +0.6 | fanduel | O -148 / U +114 | High | OK |
M.Green LB | BAL | Sacks | 0.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | draftkings | O +368 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Henry RB | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.9 | 0.5 | +0.4 | draftkings | O -230 / U - | High | OK |
L.Schoonmaker TE | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1400 / U - | High | Injury Review |
H.Luepke RB | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1300 / U - | High | OK |
B.Spann-Ford TE | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1300 / U - | High | OK |
R.Ali RB | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2000 / U - | High | OK |
C.Moore WR | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +390 / U - | High | OK |
E.Demercado RB | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +700 / U - | High | OK |
M.Hibner TE | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1400 / U - | Low | OK |
D.Prescott QB | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +700 / U - | High | OK |
J.Hill RB | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +500 / U - | High | OK |
R.Flournoy WR | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +370 / U - | High | OK |
K.Turpin WR | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +800 / U - | High | OK |
L.Jackson QB | BAL | Qb Passing Tds | 1.8 | 1.5 | +0.3 | fanduel | O -148 / U +114 | High | OK |
G.Pickens WR | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +145 / U - | High | OK |
R.Bateman WR | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +135 / U - | High | OK |
D.Walker WR | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +650 / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Andrews TE | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +115 / U - | High | OK |
T.Robinson LB | BAL | Sacks | 0.5 | 0.3 | +0.2 | draftkings | O +196 / U -254 | Medium | OK |
L.Jackson QB | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +200 / U - | High | OK |
J.Ferguson TE | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +255 / U - | High | OK |
K.Clark DL | DAL | Sacks | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +283 / U -373 | Medium | OK |
Q.Williams DL | DAL | Sacks | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +221 / U -287 | Medium | OK |
D.Ezeiruaku LB | DAL | Sacks | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +190 / U -246 | Medium | OK |
C.Lamb WR | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +115 / U - | High | OK |
J.Williams RB | DAL | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O -155 / U - | High | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
C.Lamb WR | DAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Henry RB | BAL | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Williams RB | DAL | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Huntley QB | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Huntley QB | BAL | Qb Passing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Huntley QB | BAL | QB pass yds | 52.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
Z.Flowers WR | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
Z.Flowers WR | BAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
Z.Flowers WR | BAL | Receiving yds | 72.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
G.Pickens WR | DAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Andrews TE | BAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Ferguson TE | DAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.Bateman WR | BAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Hill RB | BAL | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.Flournoy WR | DAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Turpin WR | DAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Turpin WR | DAL | Receiving yds | 14.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
C.Moore WR | BAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
L.Schoonmaker TE | DAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
L.Schoonmaker TE | DAL | Receiving yds | 14.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
H.Luepke RB | DAL | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
H.Luepke RB | DAL | Rush yds | 7.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Spann-Ford TE | DAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Spann-Ford TE | DAL | Receiving yds | 12.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
E.Demercado RB | DAL | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.Ali RB | BAL | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.Ali RB | BAL | Rush yds | 4.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Overshown LB | DAL | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
K.Martin DB | BAL | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Houston LB | DAL | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.James LB | DAL | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
R.Steward DB | DAL | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Simpson LB | BAL | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Walker WR | BAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Walker WR | BAL | Receiving yds | 24.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Jones DL | BAL | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Jenkins DL | BAL | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Bland DB | DAL | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Bell DB | DAL | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Hooker DB | DAL | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
R.Smith LB | BAL | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Hibner TE | BAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
M.Hibner TE | BAL | Receiving yds | 14.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
J.Lane WR | BAL | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Roster Exclusion |
J.Lane WR | BAL | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Roster Exclusion |
J.Lane WR | BAL | Receiving yds | 14.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Roster Exclusion |
Player Projections
QB Projections
D.Prescott #4 | DAL | 1 | 141 | 258.5 | 1.8 | 22.9 | 0.6 | 15.3 |
L.Jackson #8 | BAL | 1 | 118 | 196.3 | 1.6 | 16.2 | 0.4 | 55.9 |
T.Huntley #5 | BAL | 2 | 24 | 99.3 | 0.4 | 11.4 | 0.3 | 27.5 |
Offense Projections
C.Lamb #88 | DAL | 1 | 96 | 4.1 | 79.3 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 83.4 | 0.5 |
D.Henry #22 | BAL | 1 | 36 | 103.6 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 114.1 | 1.1 |
Z.Flowers #4 | BAL | 2 | 51 | 3.4 | 64.3 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 67.7 | 0.3 |
J.Williams #33 | DAL | 2 | 18 | 70.7 | 10.4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 81.1 | 0.8 |
M.Andrews #89 | BAL | 3 | 123 | 0.5 | 49.2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 49.7 | 0.5 |
G.Pickens #3 | DAL | 3 | 19 | 0.0 | 78.8 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 78.8 | 0.5 |
R.Bateman #7 | BAL | 4 | 64 | 0.3 | 34.9 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 35.2 | 0.3 |
J.Ferguson #87 | DAL | 4 | 61 | 0.0 | 34.1 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 34.1 | 0.3 |
J.Hill #43 | BAL | 5 | 77 | 16.6 | 12.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 28.7 | 0.2 |
R.Flournoy #19 | DAL | 5 | 24 | 1.0 | 25.9 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 27.0 | 0.2 |
K.Turpin #9 | DAL | 6 | 49 | 6.3 | 19.6 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 25.9 | 0.2 |
D.Walker #81 | BAL | 6 | 11 | 0.0 | 18.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 18.5 | 0.4 |
C.Moore #17 | BAL | 7 | 40 | 0.7 | 14.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 14.9 | 0.1 |
L.Schoonmaker #86 | DAL | 7 | 36 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 12.5 | 0.1 |
H.Luepke #30 | DAL | 8 | 35 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 10.7 | 0.1 |
M.Hibner #88 | BAL | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 |
B.Spann-Ford #89 | DAL | 9 | 24 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
J.Lane #6 | BAL | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
R.Ali #26 | BAL | 10 | 21 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 0.1 |
E.Demercado #31 | DAL | 10 | 2 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 |
Defense Projections
D.Overshown #0 | DAL | 1 | 6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 12.7 |
K.Martin #38 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 28.0 |
J.Houston #41 | DAL | 2 | 10 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 9.3 |
D.Walker #81 | BAL | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
J.Madubuike #92 | BAL | 3 | 52 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6.6 |
S.James #50 | DAL | 3 | 4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
T.Robinson #95 | BAL | 4 | 17 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 7.2 |
K.Clark #97 | DAL | 4 | 9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 5.6 |
T.Simpson #32 | BAL | 5 | 12 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6.5 |
R.Steward #27 | DAL | 5 | 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 5.2 |
T.Jones #98 | BAL | 6 | 24 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 4.3 |
Q.Williams #92 | DAL | 6 | 6 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.8 |
D.Ezeiruaku #6 | DAL | 7 | 12 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
J.Jenkins #94 | BAL | 7 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 6.7 |
K.Hamilton #14 | BAL | 8 | 28 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 7.0 |
D.Bland #26 | DAL | 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
M.Green #15 | BAL | 9 | 13 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3.9 |
M.Bell #14 | DAL | 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
R.Smith #0 | BAL | 10 | 21 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.4 |
M.Hooker #24 | DAL | 10 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 |