Back to week 3
Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 8:25 PM UTC
LV at NO
Pick
LV
Confidence
44.0%
Margin
+3.6
Odds
+127
Model Read
The home-team number says NO wins about 44 out of 100 times. Because the pick is LV, use the other side of that math: LV wins about 56 out of 100 times. The +3.6 margin is written from NO's side, so it means NO by about 3.6 points. Odds +127 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick LV: 56.0% win prob | margin +3.6 pts | confidence: 56.0% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-6e+02; oppose crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.25, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.15 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.25, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.15; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-6e+02
Player Props
Game Prop Board
K.Cousins QB | LV | QB pass yds | 227.2 | 211.5 | +15.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
B.Bowers TE | LV | Receiving yds | 57.0 | 46.5 | +10.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
A.Jeanty RB | LV | Rush yds | 59.2 | 68.5 | -9.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
J.Johnson TE | NO | Receiving yds | 44.1 | 35.5 | +8.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
N.Fant TE | NO | Receiving yds | 20.8 | 12.5 | +8.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
T.Etienne RB | NO | Rush yds | 45.5 | 38.5 | +7.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
T.Shough QB | NO | QB pass yds | 260.1 | 253.5 | +6.6 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | Medium | OK |
M.Washington RB | LV | Rush yds | 21.4 | 15.5 | +5.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Low | OK |
C.Olave WR | NO | Receiving yds | 81.9 | 76.5 | +5.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
J.Nailor WR | LV | Receiving yds | 19.2 | 24.5 | -5.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
B.Lance WR | NO | Receiving yds | 20.5 | 15.5 | +5.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Low | OK |
M.Mayer TE | LV | Receiving yds | 25.8 | 21.5 | +4.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
T.Tucker WR | LV | Receiving yds | 37.9 | 41.5 | -3.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Bech WR | LV | Receiving yds | 17.4 | 14.5 | +2.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
D.Vele WR | NO | Receiving yds | 45.7 | 48.5 | -2.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Jordan LB | NO | Sacks | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.7 | fanduel | O +235 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Hemingway DL | LV | Sacks | 0.4 | 1.0 | -0.6 | fanduel | O +300 / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Granderson LB | NO | Sacks | 0.4 | 1.0 | -0.6 | draftkings | O +165 / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Crosby DL | LV | Sacks | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.4 | draftkings | O -135 / U - | Medium | OK |
I.Thomas TE | LV | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1700 / U - | High | OK |
K.Cousins QB | LV | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1800 / U - | High | OK |
D.Young WR | LV | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1400 / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Austin WR | NO | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1800 / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Mayer TE | LV | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +320 / U - | High | OK |
M.Washington RB | LV | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +450 / U - | Low | OK |
B.Lance WR | NO | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +600 / U - | Low | OK |
O.Delp TE | NO | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1500 / U - | Low | OK |
J.Bech WR | LV | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +750 / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Cousins QB | LV | Qb Passing Tds | 1.8 | 1.5 | +0.3 | draftkings | O +135 / U -174 | High | OK |
N.Fant TE | NO | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +600 / U - | High | OK |
J.Nailor WR | LV | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +450 / U - | High | OK |
A.Kamara RB | NO | Rush yds | 27.2 | 27.5 | -0.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
T.Tucker WR | LV | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +330 / U - | High | OK |
K.Miller RB | NO | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1100 / U - | High | OK |
J.Johnson TE | NO | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +285 / U - | High | OK |
C.White WR | LV | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1500 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Vele WR | NO | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +285 / U - | High | OK |
T.Shough QB | NO | Qb Passing Tds | 1.3 | 1.5 | -0.2 | hardrock | O +100 / U -130 | Medium | OK |
T.Shough QB | NO | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +295 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Etienne RB | NO | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +140 / U - | High | OK |
B.Bowers TE | LV | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +220 / U - | High | Injury Review |
C.Olave WR | NO | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +150 / U - | High | Injury Review |
A.Kamara RB | NO | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +185 / U - | High | OK |
C.Young LB | NO | Sacks | 0.9 | 1.0 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +105 / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Jeanty RB | LV | Anytime Td | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.0 | draftkings | O -115 / U - | Medium | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
A.Kamara RB | NO | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.O'Connell QB | LV | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
A.O'Connell QB | LV | Qb Passing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
A.O'Connell QB | LV | QB pass yds | 152.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
B.Bowers TE | LV | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
C.Olave WR | NO | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
T.Etienne RB | NO | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Tucker WR | LV | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Vele WR | NO | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Miller RB | NO | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Miller RB | NO | Rush yds | 31.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Mayer TE | LV | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Johnson TE | NO | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Nailor WR | LV | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
I.Thomas TE | LV | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
I.Thomas TE | LV | Receiving yds | 15.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
N.Fant TE | NO | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Jeanty RB | LV | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Rattler QB | NO | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Rattler QB | NO | Qb Passing Tds | 0.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Rattler QB | NO | QB pass yds | 72.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
I.Stalbird LB | NO | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Koonce DL | LV | Sacks | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Butler DL | LV | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Rumph LB | NO | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Laulu DL | LV | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
I.Pola-Mao DB | LV | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
N.Shepherd DL | NO | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Bech WR | LV | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Chinn DB | LV | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Howden DB | NO | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Young WR | LV | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Young WR | LV | Receiving yds | 13.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Reid DB | NO | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Austin WR | NO | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Austin WR | NO | Receiving yds | 18.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Booker DL | LV | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
E.Stokes DB | LV | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
P.Werner LB | NO | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.White WR | LV | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.White WR | LV | Receiving yds | 12.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.McCollum DB | LV | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Washington RB | LV | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
B.Lance WR | NO | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
K.Boyd DL | NO | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
O.Delp TE | NO | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
O.Delp TE | NO | Receiving yds | 13.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
Player Projections
QB Projections
T.Shough #6 | NO | 1 | 13 | 234.3 | 1.1 | 21.8 | 0.0 | 16.7 |
K.Cousins #8 | LV | 1 | 2 | 206.5 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -2.5 |
A.O'Connell #12 | LV | 2 | 21 | 187.2 | 0.9 | 17.9 | 0.5 | 2.3 |
S.Rattler #2 | NO | 2 | 16 | 181.4 | 0.8 | 19.0 | 0.3 | 19.6 |
Offense Projections
A.Kamara #41 | NO | 1 | 127 | 57.2 | 39.0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 96.2 | 0.7 |
A.Jeanty #2 | LV | 1 | 19 | 59.2 | 21.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 80.6 | 0.6 |
C.Olave #12 | NO | 2 | 57 | 0.1 | 70.1 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 70.2 | 0.3 |
B.Bowers #89 | LV | 2 | 29 | 0.5 | 64.6 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 65.1 | 0.4 |
T.Tucker #1 | LV | 3 | 49 | 3.5 | 34.9 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 38.4 | 0.2 |
T.Etienne #3 | NO | 3 | 2 | 35.5 | 19.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 54.5 | 0.0 |
D.Vele #14 | NO | 4 | 11 | 0.0 | 38.7 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 38.7 | 0.3 |
M.Washington #4 | LV | 4 | 2 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 24.0 | 0.0 |
M.Mayer #87 | LV | 5 | 38 | 0.0 | 22.2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 22.2 | 0.1 |
K.Miller #5 | NO | 5 | 21 | 25.1 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 33.7 | 0.2 |
J.Johnson #83 | NO | 6 | 80 | 0.0 | 32.9 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 32.9 | 0.3 |
J.Nailor #9 | LV | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 |
J.Bech #18 | LV | 7 | 16 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 17.0 | 0.1 |
B.Lance #18 | NO | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 25.0 | 0.0 |
K.Austin #81 | NO | 8 | 14 | 0.6 | 21.3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 21.9 | 0.1 |
D.Young #81 | LV | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 13.5 | 0.0 |
I.Thomas #80 | LV | 9 | 10 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 12.5 | 0.0 |
N.Fant #87 | NO | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 16.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 16.5 | 0.5 |
C.White #82 | LV | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 12.0 | 1.0 |
O.Delp #4 | NO | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
Defense Projections
C.Jordan #94 | NO | 1 | 168 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 10.6 |
T.Hemingway #97 | LV | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 16.0 |
M.Crosby #98 | LV | 2 | 92 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 11.6 |
C.Young #99 | NO | 2 | 21 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 11.1 |
M.Koonce #51 | LV | 3 | 23 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7.2 |
I.Stalbird #44 | NO | 3 | 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 10.0 |
C.Granderson #96 | NO | 4 | 53 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 9.1 |
A.Butler #69 | LV | 4 | 25 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 7.1 |
J.Laulu #96 | LV | 5 | 12 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 5.3 |
C.Rumph #58 | NO | 5 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 5.0 |
N.Shepherd #93 | NO | 6 | 21 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 5.5 |
I.Pola-Mao #20 | LV | 6 | 8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 6.9 |
J.Chinn #11 | LV | 7 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
J.Howden #31 | NO | 7 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.0 |
T.Booker #99 | LV | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
J.Reid #21 | NO | 8 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
P.Werner #20 | NO | 9 | 19 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
E.Stokes #5 | LV | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
T.McCollum #27 | LV | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
K.Boyd #97 | NO | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |