Back to week 3
Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM UTC
CAR at CLE
Pick
CAR
Confidence
24.6%
Margin
-2.6
Odds
+307
Model Read
The home-team number says CLE wins about 25 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CAR, use the other side of that math: CAR wins about 75 out of 100 times. The -2.6 margin is written from CLE's side, so it means CAR by about 2.6 points. Odds +307 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick CAR: 75.4% win prob | margin -2.6 pts | confidence: 75.4% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-1.5e+02; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-1.5e+02
Player Props
Game Prop Board
B.Young QB | CAR | QB pass yds | 254.1 | 221.5 | +32.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Watson QB | CLE | QB pass yds | 215.3 | 187.5 | +27.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Hubbard RB | CAR | Rush yds | 45.5 | 70.5 | -25.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
Q.Judkins RB | CLE | Rush yds | 41.2 | 60.5 | -19.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
R.Sanders RB | CLE | Rush yds | 22.1 | 6.5 | +15.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
D.Waller TE | CAR | Receiving yds | 29.8 | 20.5 | +9.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Boston WR | CLE | Receiving yds | 54.2 | 45.5 | +8.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Low | OK |
J.Coker WR | CAR | Receiving yds | 51.6 | 59.5 | -7.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
B.Whiteheart TE | CLE | Receiving yds | 12.6 | 5.5 | +7.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
T.McMillan WR | CAR | Receiving yds | 68.2 | 62.5 | +5.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
T.Tremble TE | CAR | Receiving yds | 15.7 | 10.5 | +5.2 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Jeudy WR | CLE | Receiving yds | 25.2 | 20.5 | +4.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
K.Concepcion WR | CLE | Receiving yds | 30.0 | 33.5 | -3.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Low | OK |
H.Fannin TE | CLE | Receiving yds | 38.8 | 37.5 | +1.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
I.McGuire DL | CLE | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +148 / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Schwesinger LB | CLE | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | fanduel | O +320 / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Collins DL | CLE | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +325 / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
P.Umanmielen LB | CAR | Sacks | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.8 | fanduel | O +182 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Brown DL | CAR | Sacks | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.7 | draftkings | O +168 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Watson QB | CLE | Qb Passing Tds | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.4 | fanduel | O +165 / U -220 | High | OK |
I.Bond WR | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2000 / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Corley WR | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1600 / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Concepcion WR | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +330 / U - | Low | OK |
J.Jeudy WR | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +500 / U - | High | OK |
B.Young QB | CAR | Qb Passing Tds | 1.8 | 1.5 | +0.3 | hardrock | O +115 / U -150 | High | OK |
R.Sanders RB | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +750 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Tremble TE | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +550 / U - | High | OK |
X.Legette WR | CAR | Receiving yds | 24.8 | 24.5 | +0.3 | hardrock | O +190 / U -275 | High | Injury Review |
B.Whiteheart TE | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1200 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Watson QB | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +380 / U - | High | OK |
D.Moore WR | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1500 / U - | High | OK |
B.Young QB | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +475 / U - | High | OK |
D.Boston WR | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +230 / U - | Low | OK |
T.McMillan WR | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +195 / U - | Medium | OK |
Q.Judkins RB | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +105 / U - | Medium | OK |
H.Fannin TE | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +275 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Waller TE | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +330 / U - | High | OK |
J.Coker WR | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +235 / U - | High | Injury Review |
C.Hubbard RB | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O -115 / U - | High | OK |
P.Jones LB | CAR | Sacks | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.1 | draftkings | O -110 / U -115 | Low | OK |
M.Graham DL | CLE | Sacks | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.0 | draftkings | O +247 / U -323 | Medium | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
C.Hubbard RB | CAR | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Pickett QB | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Pickett QB | CAR | Qb Passing Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Pickett QB | CAR | QB pass yds | 37.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Coker WR | CAR | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
J.Jeudy WR | CLE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Waller TE | CAR | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
X.Legette WR | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
X.Legette WR | CAR | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
D.Moore WR | CAR | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Moore WR | CAR | Receiving yds | 17.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Sanders TE | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Sanders TE | CAR | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Sanders TE | CAR | Receiving yds | 13.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Tremble TE | CAR | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.McMillon DB | CLE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Gipson LB | CAR | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.McMillan WR | CAR | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
Q.Judkins RB | CLE | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Sanders QB | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Sanders QB | CLE | Qb Passing Tds | 0.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Sanders QB | CLE | QB pass yds | 98.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Huntington DL | CLE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
L.Ransom DB | CAR | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
H.Fannin TE | CLE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Hall DL | CLE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Moehrig DB | CAR | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Sampson RB | CLE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
D.Sampson RB | CLE | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
D.Sampson RB | CLE | Rush yds | 16.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
J.Brooks RB | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
J.Brooks RB | CAR | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
J.Brooks RB | CAR | Rush yds | 17.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
G.Delpit DB | CLE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
J.Horn DB | CAR | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
R.Sanders RB | CLE | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Brown DL | CAR | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
I.Bond WR | CLE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
I.Bond WR | CLE | Receiving yds | 18.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Ward DB | CLE | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
Ji.Horn WR | CAR | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Mismatch |
Ji.Horn WR | CAR | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Mismatch |
Ji.Horn WR | CAR | Receiving yds | 10.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Mismatch |
M.Corley WR | CLE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Corley WR | CLE | Receiving yds | 10.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Jackson DB | CAR | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Whiteheart TE | CLE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Smith-Wade DB | CAR | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Campbell DB | CLE | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
D.Boston WR | CLE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
K.Concepcion WR | CLE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
Player Projections
QB Projections
B.Young #9 | CAR | 1 | 48 | 186.2 | 1.1 | 18.7 | 0.4 | 15.3 |
D.Watson #4 | CLE | 1 | 21 | 181.3 | 1.1 | 18.1 | 0.6 | 25.0 |
S.Sanders #2 | CLE | 2 | 8 | 175.0 | 0.9 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 21.1 |
K.Pickett #12 | CAR | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 |
Offense Projections
T.McMillan #4 | CAR | 1 | 19 | 0.0 | 62.6 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 62.6 | 0.4 |
D.Boston #12 | CLE | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 77.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 77.0 | 1.0 |
C.Hubbard #30 | CAR | 2 | 77 | 49.2 | 13.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 62.5 | 0.4 |
Q.Judkins #10 | CLE | 2 | 16 | 55.1 | 13.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 68.5 | 0.4 |
J.Jeudy #3 | CLE | 3 | 36 | 0.1 | 51.6 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 51.7 | 0.2 |
J.Coker #18 | CAR | 3 | 24 | 0.0 | 44.8 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 44.8 | 0.3 |
H.Fannin #44 | CLE | 4 | 18 | 0.7 | 44.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 45.5 | 0.4 |
D.Waller #88 | CAR | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 30.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 30.5 | 1.0 |
X.Legette #17 | CAR | 5 | 32 | 0.8 | 28.9 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 29.6 | 0.2 |
K.Concepcion #1 | CLE | 5 | 2 | 4.5 | 35.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 40.0 | 0.0 |
D.Sampson #22 | CLE | 6 | 16 | 10.9 | 16.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 27.9 | 0.1 |
J.Brooks #25 | CAR | 6 | 5 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 23.6 | 0.0 |
D.Moore #83 | CAR | 7 | 17 | 0.7 | 20.9 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 21.6 | 0.2 |
R.Sanders #23 | CLE | 7 | 6 | 16.2 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 25.0 | 0.2 |
J.Sanders #0 | CAR | 8 | 27 | 0.0 | 19.7 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 19.7 | 0.1 |
I.Bond #0 | CLE | 8 | 16 | 1.8 | 21.8 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 23.6 | 0.0 |
M.Corley #11 | CLE | 9 | 14 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 14.7 | 0.0 |
Ji.Horn #19 | CAR | 9 | 11 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 16.1 | 0.0 |
T.Tremble #82 | CAR | 10 | 68 | 0.2 | 15.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 15.8 | 0.2 |
B.Whiteheart #86 | CLE | 10 | 18 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 0.1 |
Defense Projections
T.Gipson #52 | CAR | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 |
D.McMillon #31 | CLE | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 20.0 |
M.Collins #96 | CLE | 2 | 10 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6.7 |
P.Jones #91 | CAR | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.5 |
L.Ransom #22 | CAR | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 10.0 |
A.Huntington #98 | CLE | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
I.McGuire #57 | CLE | 4 | 17 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 8.7 |
P.Umanmielen #3 | CAR | 4 | 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 6.4 |
T.Moehrig #7 | CAR | 5 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 7.5 |
M.Hall #51 | CLE | 5 | 8 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 4.9 |
D.Brown #95 | CAR | 6 | 54 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 4.3 |
C.Schwesinger #49 | CLE | 6 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6.8 |
G.Delpit #9 | CLE | 7 | 28 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.9 |
J.Horn #8 | CAR | 7 | 10 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 7.8 |
M.Graham #94 | CLE | 8 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
B.Brown #97 | CAR | 8 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 3.0 |
D.Ward #21 | CLE | 9 | 18 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
M.Jackson #2 | CAR | 9 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
C.Smith-Wade #26 | CAR | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
T.Campbell #7 | CLE | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 |