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Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM UTC
CIN at PIT
Pick
CIN
Confidence
23.4%
Margin
-2.5
Odds
+328
Model Read
The home-team number says PIT wins about 23 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CIN, use the other side of that math: CIN wins about 77 out of 100 times. The -2.5 margin is written from PIT's side, so it means CIN by about 2.5 points. Odds +328 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick CIN: 76.6% win prob | margin -2.5 pts | confidence: 76.6% away | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+2.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+2.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2; oppose none
Player Props
Game Prop Board
M.Gesicki TE | CIN | Receiving yds | 39.5 | 24.5 | +15.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
M.Pittman WR | PIT | Receiving yds | 41.0 | 27.5 | +13.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
T.Higgins WR | CIN | Receiving yds | 65.8 | 52.5 | +13.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
E.All TE | CIN | Receiving yds | 14.7 | 6.5 | +8.2 | draftkings | O -109 / U -115 | Medium | OK |
J.Burrow QB | CIN | QB pass yds | 243.6 | 251.5 | -7.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
D.Sample TE | CIN | Receiving yds | 14.3 | 6.5 | +7.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Warren RB | PIT | Rush yds | 50.0 | 57.5 | -7.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
A.Rodgers QB | PIT | QB pass yds | 230.0 | 224.5 | +5.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
R.Wilson WR | PIT | Receiving yds | 17.7 | 22.5 | -4.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
D.Metcalf WR | PIT | Receiving yds | 49.3 | 52.5 | -3.2 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Brown RB | CIN | Rush yds | 61.7 | 63.5 | -1.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
S.Perine RB | CIN | Rush yds | 15.9 | 14.5 | +1.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
D.Washington TE | PIT | Receiving yds | 16.6 | 15.5 | +1.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
P.Freiermuth TE | PIT | Receiving yds | 36.6 | 35.5 | +1.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Heyward DL | PIT | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +292 / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Benton DL | PIT | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | fanduel | O +350 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Harmon DL | PIT | Sacks | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.8 | draftkings | O +345 / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Chase WR | CIN | Receiving yds | 76.2 | 75.5 | +0.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
D.Sample TE | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +700 / U - | High | OK |
A.Rodgers QB | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1200 / U - | High | OK |
B.Skowronek WR | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2800 / U - | High | OK |
T.Hudson TE | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1300 / U - | High | OK |
E.All TE | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1400 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Homer RB | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +750 / U - | High | OK |
D.Meyers WR | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +750 / U - | Low | OK |
D.Washington TE | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +700 / U - | High | OK |
G.Bernard WR | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +650 / U - | Low | OK |
J.Burrow QB | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +800 / U - | High | Injury Review |
R.Wilson WR | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +600 / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Perine RB | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +550 / U - | High | Injury Review |
J.Warren RB | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +120 / U - | High | Injury Review |
M.Pittman WR | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +400 / U - | High | Injury Review |
M.Gesicki TE | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +425 / U - | High | OK |
J.Chase WR | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.8 | 0.5 | +0.3 | draftkings | O +100 / U - | High | Injury Review |
D.Metcalf WR | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +190 / U - | High | OK |
P.Freiermuth TE | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +310 / U - | High | OK |
J.Burrow QB | CIN | Qb Passing Tds | 1.7 | 1.5 | +0.2 | draftkings | O -114 / U -111 | High | Injury Review |
Ni.Herbig LB | PIT | Sacks | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.1 | draftkings | O +208 / U -270 | Medium | OK |
A.Rodgers QB | PIT | Qb Passing Tds | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.1 | fanduel | O +154 / U -205 | High | OK |
M.Murphy DL | CIN | Sacks | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.1 | draftkings | O +175 / U -227 | Medium | OK |
A.Highsmith LB | PIT | Sacks | 0.9 | 0.8 | +0.1 | draftkings | O -145 / U +115 | Medium | OK |
C.Brown RB | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.1 | draftkings | O +100 / U - | High | OK |
T.Watt LB | PIT | Sacks | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.1 | draftkings | O -169 / U +133 | Medium | OK |
T.Higgins WR | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +165 / U - | High | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
J.Chase WR | CIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
J.Warren RB | PIT | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
C.Brown RB | CIN | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Flacco QB | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Flacco QB | CIN | Qb Passing Tds | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Flacco QB | CIN | QB pass yds | 70.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Pittman WR | PIT | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
M.Rudolph QB | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Rudolph QB | PIT | Qb Passing Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Rudolph QB | PIT | QB pass yds | 40.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Metcalf WR | PIT | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Higgins WR | CIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Gesicki TE | CIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
P.Freiermuth TE | PIT | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
S.Perine RB | CIN | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
A.Iosivas WR | CIN | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
A.Iosivas WR | CIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
A.Iosivas WR | CIN | Receiving yds | 17.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
R.Dowdle RB | PIT | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
R.Dowdle RB | PIT | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
R.Dowdle RB | PIT | Rush yds | 29.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
T.Hudson TE | CIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Hudson TE | CIN | Receiving yds | 13.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Washington TE | PIT | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Homer RB | PIT | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Homer RB | PIT | Rush yds | 11.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Skowronek WR | PIT | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Skowronek WR | PIT | Receiving yds | 10.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Sample TE | CIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Jenkins DL | CIN | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Knight LB | CIN | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Johnson DL | CIN | Sacks | 0.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Ramsey DB | PIT | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Slaton DL | CIN | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Hill DL | CIN | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
J.Davis DB | CIN | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
R.Wilson WR | PIT | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
E.All TE | CIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Sawyer LB | PIT | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Stewart DL | CIN | Sacks | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Echols DB | PIT | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Battle DB | CIN | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Hill DB | CIN | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Porter DB | PIT | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
G.Bernard WR | PIT | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
G.Bernard WR | PIT | Receiving yds | 30.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
D.Meyers WR | CIN | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
D.Meyers WR | CIN | Receiving yds | 12.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
Player Projections
QB Projections
J.Burrow #9 | CIN | 1 | 79 | 269.3 | 2.0 | 24.9 | 0.6 | 11.0 |
A.Rodgers #8 | PIT | 1 | 18 | 207.2 | 1.4 | 20.8 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
M.Rudolph #2 | PIT | 2 | 26 | 130.6 | 0.8 | 12.7 | 0.4 | 4.1 |
J.Flacco #16 | CIN | 2 | 9 | 184.9 | 1.4 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
Offense Projections
J.Chase #1 | CIN | 1 | 80 | 0.9 | 86.5 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 87.4 | 0.7 |
J.Warren #30 | PIT | 1 | 66 | 41.2 | 19.5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 60.7 | 0.2 |
C.Brown #30 | CIN | 2 | 45 | 51.6 | 21.7 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 73.4 | 0.5 |
M.Pittman #11 | PIT | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 58.0 | 0.0 |
T.Higgins #5 | CIN | 3 | 84 | 0.3 | 66.6 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 66.9 | 0.5 |
D.Metcalf #4 | PIT | 3 | 17 | 0.7 | 53.9 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 54.6 | 0.4 |
P.Freiermuth #88 | PIT | 4 | 76 | 0.0 | 36.2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 0.3 |
M.Gesicki #88 | CIN | 4 | 29 | 0.0 | 36.2 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 36.2 | 0.2 |
S.Perine #34 | CIN | 5 | 59 | 22.9 | 11.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 34.4 | 0.2 |
G.Bernard #17 | PIT | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 |
A.Iosivas #80 | CIN | 6 | 43 | 0.3 | 24.4 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 24.7 | 0.3 |
R.Dowdle #13 | PIT | 6 | 2 | 18.5 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 32.5 | 0.0 |
T.Hudson #87 | CIN | 7 | 32 | 0.0 | 21.2 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 21.2 | 0.1 |
R.Wilson #14 | PIT | 7 | 11 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 0.2 |
D.Washington #80 | PIT | 8 | 36 | 0.0 | 18.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 18.1 | 0.1 |
E.All #83 | CIN | 8 | 9 | 0.0 | 18.1 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 18.1 | 0.0 |
D.Meyers #81 | CIN | 9 | 2 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 |
T.Homer #21 | PIT | 9 | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 |
D.Sample #89 | CIN | 10 | 68 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 12.6 | 0.1 |
B.Skowronek #15 | PIT | 10 | 21 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
Defense Projections
T.Watt #90 | PIT | 1 | 114 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 12.3 |
K.Jenkins #90 | CIN | 1 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6.4 |
A.Highsmith #56 | PIT | 2 | 60 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 10.0 |
M.Murphy #99 | CIN | 2 | 15 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 4.9 |
D.Knight #44 | CIN | 3 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 5.2 |
D.Harmon #99 | PIT | 3 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 |
C.Johnson #52 | CIN | 4 | 7 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 5.1 |
J.Ramsey #5 | PIT | 4 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.3 |
C.Heyward #97 | PIT | 5 | 149 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 8.3 |
T.Slaton #98 | CIN | 5 | 7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 5.6 |
B.Hill #92 | CIN | 6 | 53 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 4.6 |
Ni.Herbig #51 | PIT | 6 | 26 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 10.1 |
K.Benton #95 | PIT | 7 | 20 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 6.0 |
J.Davis #35 | CIN | 7 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 7.3 |
S.Stewart #94 | CIN | 8 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 3.3 |
J.Sawyer #33 | PIT | 8 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.8 |
J.Battle #27 | CIN | 9 | 8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 3.9 |
B.Echols #26 | PIT | 9 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 4.5 |
D.Hill #23 | CIN | 10 | 11 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 3.5 |
J.Porter #24 | PIT | 10 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.3 |