Back to week 3
Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM UTC
HOU at IND
Pick
HOU
Confidence
29.9%
Margin
-1.8
Odds
+235
Model Read
The home-team number says IND wins about 30 out of 100 times. Because the pick is HOU, use the other side of that math: HOU wins about 70 out of 100 times. The -1.8 margin is written from IND's side, so it means HOU by about 1.8 points. Odds +235 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick HOU: 70.1% win prob | margin -1.8 pts | confidence: 70.1% away | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+6.4e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+6.4e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose none
Player Props
Game Prop Board
D.Jones QB | IND | QB pass yds | 230.6 | 210.5 | +20.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Stroud QB | HOU | QB pass yds | 255.3 | 240.5 | +14.8 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | OK |
T.Warren TE | IND | Receiving yds | 33.8 | 46.5 | -12.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
X.Hutchinson WR | HOU | Receiving yds | 26.9 | 38.5 | -11.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Montgomery RB | HOU | Rush yds | 39.4 | 50.5 | -11.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
K.Boutte WR | HOU | Receiving yds | 29.6 | 36.5 | -6.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
K.Allen WR | IND | Receiving yds | 39.1 | 32.5 | +6.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Taylor RB | IND | Rush yds | 76.0 | 81.5 | -5.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Wayne WR | HOU | Receiving yds | 20.8 | 15.5 | +5.3 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | Low | OK |
W.Marks RB | HOU | Rush yds | 34.0 | 30.5 | +3.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
J.Noel WR | HOU | Receiving yds | 24.2 | 27.5 | -3.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
J.Downs WR | IND | Receiving yds | 49.1 | 50.5 | -1.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
G.Stewart DL | IND | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +371 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Schultz TE | HOU | Receiving yds | 49.3 | 48.5 | +0.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
D.Hunter DL | HOU | Sacks | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.4 | draftkings | O -123 / U -102 | Medium | OK |
C.Stroud QB | HOU | Qb Passing Tds | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +131 / U -168 | High | OK |
C.Stroud QB | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +750 / U - | High | OK |
J.Wayne WR | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +750 / U - | Low | OK |
J.Taylor RB | IND | Anytime Td | 0.9 | 0.5 | +0.4 | draftkings | O -150 / U - | High | OK |
M.Alie-Cox TE | IND | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1400 / U - | High | OK |
D.Burks WR | IND | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1700 / U - | Low | OK |
M.Klein TE | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2200 / U - | Low | OK |
X.Hutchinson WR | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +350 / U - | High | OK |
A.Ogletree TE | IND | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1800 / U - | High | OK |
J.Noel WR | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +450 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Jones QB | IND | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +700 / U - | High | OK |
F.Moreau TE | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +950 / U - | High | OK |
D.Schultz TE | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +215 / U - | High | Injury Review |
J.Downs WR | IND | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +240 / U - | High | OK |
L.Latu DL | IND | Sacks | 0.6 | 0.3 | +0.3 | draftkings | O +138 / U -176 | Medium | OK |
K.Boutte WR | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +295 / U - | High | OK |
W.Marks RB | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +265 / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Allen WR | IND | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +330 / U - | High | OK |
W.Anderson DL | HOU | Sacks | 0.5 | 0.3 | +0.2 | draftkings | O -131 / U +104 | Medium | Injury Review |
T.Warren TE | IND | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +230 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Jones QB | IND | Qb Passing Tds | 1.6 | 1.5 | +0.1 | hardrock | O +160 / U -220 | High | OK |
D.Buckner DL | IND | Sacks | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.1 | draftkings | O +114 / U -144 | Medium | Injury Review |
S.Rankins DL | HOU | Sacks | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.1 | draftkings | O +242 / U -316 | Medium | OK |
D.Montgomery RB | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +100 / U - | High | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
J.Taylor RB | IND | Rb Rushing Tds | 1.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
N.Collins WR | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
N.Collins WR | HOU | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
N.Collins WR | HOU | Receiving yds | 70.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
D.Mills QB | HOU | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Mills QB | HOU | Qb Passing Tds | 0.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Mills QB | HOU | QB pass yds | 103.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Downs WR | IND | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Pierce WR | IND | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
A.Pierce WR | IND | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
A.Pierce WR | IND | Receiving yds | 37.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
D.Montgomery RB | HOU | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Schultz TE | HOU | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
K.Boutte WR | HOU | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
F.Moreau TE | HOU | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
F.Moreau TE | HOU | Receiving yds | 20.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Allen WR | IND | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Alie-Cox TE | IND | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Alie-Cox TE | IND | Receiving yds | 15.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Dulin WR | IND | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
A.Dulin WR | IND | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
A.Dulin WR | IND | Receiving yds | 13.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
X.Hutchinson WR | HOU | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Ogletree TE | IND | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Ogletree TE | IND | Receiving yds | 11.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Richardson QB | IND | Anytime Td | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Richardson QB | IND | Qb Passing Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Richardson QB | IND | QB pass yds | 107.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
W.Marks RB | HOU | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Adebawore DL | IND | Sacks | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
R.Leonard QB | IND | Anytime Td | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
R.Leonard QB | IND | Qb Passing Tds | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
R.Leonard QB | IND | QB pass yds | 186.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
C.Bynum DB | IND | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Edwards DL | HOU | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Warren TE | IND | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Ajiake LB | IND | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Giddens RB | IND | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
D.Giddens RB | IND | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
D.Giddens RB | IND | Rush yds | 18.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
T.Togiai DL | HOU | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Al-Shaair LB | HOU | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
H.To'oTo'o LB | HOU | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
J.Tuimoloau DL | IND | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Stingley DB | HOU | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Noel WR | HOU | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Pitre DB | HOU | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Lassiter DB | HOU | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Wayne WR | HOU | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
D.Burks WR | IND | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
D.Burks WR | IND | Receiving yds | 12.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
M.Klein TE | HOU | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
M.Klein TE | HOU | Receiving yds | 16.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
Player Projections
QB Projections
C.Stroud #7 | HOU | 1 | 48 | 239.6 | 1.3 | 20.5 | 0.3 | 13.4 |
D.Jones #17 | IND | 1 | 15 | 231.8 | 1.4 | 20.1 | 0.0 | 11.9 |
D.Mills #10 | HOU | 2 | 43 | 164.7 | 0.9 | 15.9 | 0.6 | 5.4 |
A.Richardson #5 | IND | 2 | 17 | 141.2 | 0.7 | 10.4 | 0.8 | 37.3 |
R.Leonard #15 | IND | 3 | 5 | 83.0 | 0.4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 5.4 |
Offense Projections
J.Taylor #28 | IND | 1 | 86 | 90.6 | 17.8 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 108.4 | 0.9 |
N.Collins #12 | HOU | 1 | 67 | 0.4 | 66.0 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 66.4 | 0.4 |
J.Downs #2 | IND | 2 | 49 | -0.1 | 45.9 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 45.8 | 0.2 |
W.Marks #4 | HOU | 2 | 18 | 42.3 | 14.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 56.7 | 0.3 |
A.Pierce #14 | IND | 3 | 66 | 0.0 | 45.5 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 45.5 | 0.3 |
D.Montgomery #32 | HOU | 3 | 2 | 35.0 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 51.5 | 1.5 |
D.Schultz #86 | HOU | 4 | 51 | 0.0 | 41.5 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 41.5 | 0.2 |
T.Warren #84 | IND | 4 | 19 | 0.6 | 44.8 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 45.4 | 0.4 |
D.Giddens #21 | IND | 5 | 5 | 19.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 19.2 | 0.0 |
K.Boutte #14 | HOU | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 29.0 | 0.0 |
F.Moreau #87 | HOU | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 24.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 |
K.Allen #10 | IND | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 |
M.Alie-Cox #81 | IND | 7 | 98 | 0.0 | 15.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 15.8 | 0.2 |
J.Wayne #17 | HOU | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 21.7 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 21.7 | 0.0 |
A.Dulin #16 | IND | 8 | 52 | 2.7 | 12.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 14.7 | 0.1 |
J.Noel #13 | HOU | 8 | 19 | 1.3 | 19.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 21.1 | 0.1 |
X.Hutchinson #19 | HOU | 9 | 43 | 1.7 | 16.4 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 18.0 | 0.1 |
D.Burks #80 | IND | 9 | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 |
A.Ogletree #85 | IND | 10 | 34 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 0.1 |
M.Klein #83 | HOU | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 |
Defense Projections
D.Buckner #99 | IND | 1 | 68 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 9.3 |
D.Hunter #55 | HOU | 1 | 27 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 15.8 |
W.Anderson #51 | HOU | 2 | 42 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 12.2 |
L.Latu #97 | IND | 2 | 20 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 6.8 |
S.Rankins #98 | HOU | 3 | 15 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 9.5 |
A.Adebawore #95 | IND | 3 | 15 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 7.7 |
M.Edwards #97 | HOU | 4 | 11 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8.1 |
C.Bynum #0 | IND | 4 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 |
T.Togiai #72 | HOU | 5 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 5.2 |
A.Ajiake #58 | IND | 5 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
G.Stewart #90 | IND | 6 | 59 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 3.4 |
A.Al-Shaair #0 | HOU | 6 | 9 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.1 |
H.To'oTo'o #39 | HOU | 7 | 19 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
J.Tuimoloau #91 | IND | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
D.Stingley #24 | HOU | 8 | 6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
J.Pitre #5 | HOU | 9 | 19 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 3.4 |
K.Lassiter #3 | HOU | 10 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 4.1 |